The Washington Nationals lost their season finale and Gio Gonzalez got hit hard. That’s a bit concerning, but in the bigger picture: Bryce Harper swung the bat well and looks like his old self. That could be troublesome news for the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs were the team that threw him off with all the free passes a year ago, but they don’t have the luxury of doing that in this series with the support around him—particularly behind him—in the order. Washington seems to have everything lined up for a deep postseason run, but they have a difficult first round matchup and a history of postseason failures.
This series will be contested beginning on Friday, October 6, 2017 at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C. The third and fourth games of this series will be played at Wrigley Field in Chicago. The National League Division Series matchups will be broadcast nationally on TBS.
Bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Starting Pitching Matchups
The Nationals’ boast a stacked rotation assuming Max Scherzer is healthy after his early exit on Saturday. If healthy, Scherzer will start Game 1 and be in position for a second start in the series in either Game 4 or Game 5 depending on how the series goes.
Scherzer is the best pitcher in the game not named Clayton Kershaw. He also has a bit of a better postseason resume than Kershaw.
The veteran right-hander was a former Cy Young Award winner before he came to Washington, but has stepped up his game further in the three years he’s spent in D.C. He’s a bulldog though he threw only 200.2 innings this year, his lowest total in the regular season since 2012. Could the fewer innings mean he’s fresher?
Save the number of innings and wins, Scherzer has better numbers in 2017 than in 2016 when he was the Cy Young Award winner. He’s 16-6 with a 2.51 ERA and 0.902 WHIP. His WHIP leads the NL and so does his 12 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s the league leader in both strikeouts and WHIP now in back-to-back years.
Scherzer is a rock and is as consistent as they come. Beyond him, the consistency wanes more than the quality. Stephen Strasburg is lined up for Game 2. He’s got some of the best stuff. Health has been his issue, but he’s a full go for October. His 15-4 record and 2.52 ERA means hardly a step down in production. He’s been worth 6.6 rWAR while making only 28 starts.
When you break down the numbers, Strasburg has outpitched Scherzer in some areas. His FIP is better and his home run rate is much better. In fact, Strasburg has allowed the fewest homers in the game per inning, giving up just 0.7 per nine.
In Game 3, the Nationals will flip the Cubs lineup around with southpaw Gio Gonzalez. The Cubs are a dynamic offense, but rank No. 25 in the sport in runs scored against lefties.
Gonzalez’s last start aside, he’s still a very capable No. 3. Even with the bad finish, he’s 15-9 with a 2.96 ERA. How many other teams can boast three starters with a sub-3 ERA?
Should he be needed, even the Nat’s No. 4 option isn’t bad. Tanner Roark figures to get the start if a fourth arm is needed. He’s having a down year, but is still 13-11. His ERA is up at 4.59, but he’s posted a sub-3 ERA in two different seasons as a starter since 2014. He’s also throwing a lot better recently with a 3.73 second half ERA.
The Nationals’ rotation is stacked, but the Cubs’ front four are no slouches.
It stands to reason that the first two games will go to some combination of Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester. Arrieta’s throwing better—even while recovering from injury—while Lester has the storied postseason resume.
Arrieta is 14-10 with a 3.53 ERA. Those numbers pale in comparison to both Scherzer and Strasburg, but Arrieta was big in the World Series, shutting down the Indians twice and notching two of the four wins in the series. He also had one of best pitched postseason games in recent memory when he blanked the Pirates in the NL Wild Card game back in 2015.
More recently, Arrieta has really blossomed in the second half with a 2.28 ERA in 12 starts, but he’ll make his start on the road where he has an ERA a run higher on the year than he does at home.
As for Lester, the veteran southpaw has not had a Lester-type year. He’s 13-8 with a 4.33 ERA and inflated 1.323 WHIP. He’s walking more and allowing more longballs than he has since his 4.82 ERA year in 2012. Still, a 2.63 postseason ERA in 22 games will catch an eye.
The next two starters for the Cubs will likely be Jose Quintana and Kyle Hendricks, leaving John Lackey as the odd man out.
Hendricks recently earned the praises of Joe Maddon who says he’s pitching better than he ever has, including during his 2016 season when he led the NL with a 2.13 ERA. Hendricks is not a power guy, he’s a finesse pitcher. There’s some concern about guys like him against the better lineups, but there’s also something to be said about command and control guys who can take advantage of pressing hitters when they’re in a high-pressure situation, like the postseason.
Quintana is the opposite. He leads the Cubs in strikeouts per nine innings amongst starters. Since coming over from the White Sox, he’s K:9 rate is 10.5. That matches up against the Nationals’ arms. He’s also 7-3 with a 3.74 ERA while his 3.25 FIP indicate he’s pitched even better than the numbers may suggest.
Offensive Comparison
Kyle Schwarber is back just in time for the big stage. Kris Bryant is swinging like the reigning MVP. This lineup is rolling, even Renee Rivera is cruising.
From Albert Almora Jr. to Ian Happ, Javier Baez and Addison Russell, the Cubs are getting key hits up and down the order.
Statistically, this iteration of the Cubs is an even bigger offensive threat than the one that won the World Series last year. Chicago keeps discovering new, young talent that is ever deepening the talent pool.
Joe Maddon is like a kid in a candy store with this roster. He’s able to mix and match with ideal matchups due to great positional flexibility.
Right now, Anthony Rizzo and Ben Zobrist are a little cold, but those are two proven hitters who are just as capable of a big series as the hot bats of Schwarber and Bryant.
The Cubs have outscored the Nationals this season, but the difference is 10 runs—a miniscule amount over a full year. The two teams have been nearly identical at the dish.
For Washington, the depth isn’t quite as strong, but the middle of the order is ridiculous. A healthy Bryce Harper is back in the fold. He’s a .300/.400/.600 bat that’s been missing from the order and yet the offense had been chugging along just fine.
The reason for that has been the speed of Trea Turner at the top. He’s played less than 100 games and has 42 steals. He’s also getting on base ahead of Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman and Daniel Murphy. Few teams can boast a pair of hitters capable of hitting over .300 and driving the ball out of the yard or into the gap with ease. The Nationals have four. That’s near impossible for any pitcher to beat, particularly several times through the order.
Bullpen Breakdown
Koji Uehara is out and dealing with a knee injury. That’s a loss to some of the Cubs’ depth in the pen, but Chicago is still getting great production in relief of its starters.
As a team, the Cubs have the second-best bullpen ERA in the NL at 3.79.
Right now, Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop are pitching lights out in the pen. Carl Edwards Jr. is yet another option to feed into Wade Davis. Davis has shown what he can do in October during his time in Kansas City. He’s a lights out reliever on the big stage.
The National’s team ERA out of the pen pales in comparison to the Cubs, but for a team like Washington, it’s not fair to look at their bullpen ERA as it’s not reflective of the true state of this team.
Throughout the first half, the bullpen was a major struggle for Dusty Baker’s squad. The manager who struggles sometimes with the Xs and Os couldn’t pull the right trigger. To be fair, his options were limited.
In July, Mike Rizzo went out and fixed his mistakes. He added Sean Doolittle who racked up 21 saves in just half a year. He added Ryan Madson and Brandon Kintzler. The Nationals now have a closer for the last three innings. This pen can do a great Royals’ impression and slam the door shut after just six innings form the starter. Washington also has the starting rotation strong enough to depend on them to deliver at least six strong frames in each game.
Quick Pick
The Cubs were the team to beat last year and they were the team to beat coming into the year, but the starting pitching hasn’t been the same. The offense is back to its 2016 form and even without Aroldis Chapman, the bullpen is deep enough to survive. The starting pitching, however, has too many questions. Unless Max Scherzer’s injury is more serious than the reports indicate, Scherzer, Strasburg, Gonzalez, and Roark is better than Arrieta, Lester, Quintana, and Hendricks. Offensively, this team can match up with anyone. Sure, Rizzo and Bryant are good, but the Nats have Harper, Zimmerman, Murphy and Rendon.
MLB Odds: Nationals over Cubs in Five
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
