The Tigers and Red Sox close out a three game series Wednesday afternoon as both find themselves in second place in their respective divisions. Each team continues to make a push for the postseason.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Red Sox briefly overtook the Orioles for the top spot in the AL East this past week, but a couple tough losses against Minnesota turned the tides once again.
Those losses aside, Boston entered Sunday having won nine of their last 12 games and five of eight since the start of the second half.
Even with the recent stretch of wins and a record 13-games over .500, the team sits just narrowly in the black in total money at $64.
One thing to keep an eye on, however, is the fact Boston is a much better home team than road team. They’re 32-22 at Fenway while the Tigers are a couple games under .500 on the road.
Detroit, however, has been the better bet overall with a total moneyline of $823 heading into Sunday.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Michael Fulmer has been a godsend for this Detroit Tigers’ team. The rookie right-hander has been the team’s best starter to date and is a big reason Detroit remains competitive despite an injury to Jordan Zimmermann and ineffectiveness from Anibal Sanchez and Mike Pelfrey.
Fulmer has made 15 starts so far this year, going 89 2/3 innings combined as the Tigers have tried to limit his innings and pitches along the way.
Still, even with these limitations, he’s gone 9-2 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.104 WHIP. He’s holding hitters to just 6.9 hits per nine innings and just 0.7 home runs per nine.
In his short big league career, Fulmer’s shown the ability to get the big strikeout when needed and is striking out 8.1 per nine. All in all, when you break things down, his only real area of weakness is the free pass. The youngster is walking three per nine.
To add to the 23-year old’s major league numbers, he’s thrown three games and 15 1/3 innings in Triple-A before his promotion here in 2016. That gives him 105 total innings. That most of the way to the 124 2/4 combined innings he hurled in 2015. As a result, fatigue could start being an issue to keep an eye on.
While the Tigers turn to a talented young righty, it’s a young southpaw on schedule to make the start for the BoSox.
Eduardo Rodriguez had a nice return to the majors on July 26 as the 23-year old allowed just a single run over seven innings against the Yankees. He followed that up with a good show against the Twins. He went just five a and a third in that game, but gave up only two runs while striking out eight.
Overall, it’s been a tough season for E-Rod who even after those strong performances is just 2-4 with a 6.70 ERA and 1.536 WHIP in eight big league starts.
Those numbers just go to show how lost Rodriguez was prior to his demotion to the minors. His walk and home run rates were the main culprits as he was missing all over, inside the zone and out.
LIVE BETTING
This should be an interesting game with two talented arms pitching to two loaded offenses, each able to do quite a bit of damage.
Boston having outscored the next best offenses in baseball by 40 runs and the next best AL team by 55 certainly gives them the edge at the plate, but the Tigers aren’t slouches at the dish either.
Detroit actually ranks in the middle of the pack in the AL with 454 runs scored, but the Tigers have the names to be better than that. Justin Upton is finally heating up. Since the break, he’s already hit a pair of homers in seven games and has a .348 OBP over the last week.
With Upton hitting now, that closes one of the team’s holes. Catcher is still an issue with James McCann posting a .548 OPS and Jarrod Saltalamacchia hitting just .188. Shortstop is also a below average spot with the defensive minded Jose Iglesias, but otherwise the team’s rather stacked, even with J.D. Martinez still sidelined.
Ian Kinsler, for instance, is having a monster year with numbers similar to multiple time MVP, Miguel Cabrera. Kinsler is actually out homering Miggy 20 to 19.
Of course, as strong as the Tigers’ lineup is, the Red Sox’s line is that much better.
While only a couple holes exist in Detroit’s order, none are in Boston’s with Sandy Leon showing a good bat in a short sample size behind the plate. Given that, of the team’s starters, Brock Holt’s .755 OPS is the worst of the bunch. That’s pretty impressive.
Boston provides an excellent blend of patience, power and speed.
QUICK PICK
An interesting matchup on Wednesday between two quality young starters and two offenses loaded with talent.
These two teams mirror each other pretty well. The Red Sox, however, are at home and have the better offense. Look for E-Rod to give them enough, given his last two outings, and for the offense to figure out Fulmer enough to capture the victory.
As for the bullpens, both teams have issues there: Boston in injuries and Detroit in effectiveness outside of K-Rod. With nearly everything else even, the BoSox topping baseball in runs scored gives them the nod.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 5, Tigers 4
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