From the White Sox to the Red Sox, the Tigers leave the nation’s heart land and head east to open up a series against Boston on Monday in what will be the first series of the year between these two storied franchises.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Home field advantage is big in any baseball game. It gives the home team a chance to bat last which is huge in close games, but playing in Fenway is even bigger than that for the Red Sox.
Boston is a much better team at home, in front of the home crowd, they’ve 10-games over at home compared to just two up on the road. Their opposition, on the other hand, is a winning team at home and a losing one away from Detroit.
Having just lost two of their last three series, one to Minnesota and the other to the Blue Jays, Detroit will try and right the ship a bit against the Sox from Chicago before journeying east to take on the Sox from Boston.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Looking at the names of those likely to take the mound to start the game on Monday you see the veteran Justin Verlander against Drew Pomeranz.
Solely on name recognition the Tigers would have the advantage—though Pomeranz’s name has been big news lately due to the trade.
Looking at the numbers, however, the edge shifts back to the Sox, but is that the whole story?
Pomeranz is 8-7 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.124 WHIP while Verlander is 9-6 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.081 WHIP. Pomeranz is allowing fewer runs, but Verlander is doing a better job keeping batters off base.
Looking at the recent performances of each player to see how they’re throwing the ball right now, we see Verlander coming off a one-run, eight-inning performance and having pitched to a 1.63 ERA over his last four starts totaling 27 2/3 innings.
On the other hand, Pomeranz lasted just three innings in his Red Sox debut, struggling against a familiar Giants’ lineup in an unfamiliar stadium.
Depending on the stats you look out, this matchup can seem like a good one for either side, but one thing’s for sure: Verlander is a bit more of a certainty than Pomeranz who’s still adjusting to a new league and who’s also dealing with a higher number of innings thrown this year than in any season before this.
We’ve seen Verlander go well over 200 innings frequently when healthy. We know his arm can withstand it, but can Pomeranz? We’re in new territory right now and even if he does handle it well, it’s reasonable to expect his arm to go through a bit of a dead period. Did we see that on Wednesday night or were his struggles just driven by nerves, a new ballpark or just not having his best stuff? We’ll see on Monday.
LIVE BETTING
This game could be a close one. Both teams have an offense able to score and both teams have a pitcher in the midst of a very good season.
Should this come down to the bullpens, it’ll be a very interesting story.
It seems every year the Tigers have a strong offense and enough starting pitching. While the later of those two is questionable here in 2016, there’s one thing that’s consistent: a questionable bullpen.
General manager Al Avila tried to address the pen this offseason, but the bullpen still ranks in the bottom third in baseball with a 4.47 ERA. Francisco Rodriguez was added and has done well in the closer role, but Mark Lowe has been a bust and the rest of the group are okay, but there’s nothing very reliable to bridge the gap to K-Rod.
As for Boston, their bullpen was a strength. While Carson Smith hasn’t offered anything due to injury, Craig Kimbrel, Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa built a reputable back three, but all three are on the disabled list.
Boston went out and added Brad Ziegler from Arizona and the 36-year old is now a key cog in the late innings. Matt Barnes, Heath Hembree and Tommy Layne have been good in the middle, but will be asked to take on a bigger role.
Depending on the level of pressure in the game, it’ll be interesting to see if either pen can hold a narrow lead.
QUICK PICK
Boston has scored 30 more runs than any other team in baseball heading into Thursday and 38 more than the next best offense in the American League. Compared to Detroit, the Red Sox have scored 74 more and have a .831 OPS compared to a .758 OPS.
It’s not that Detroit cannot score. They’ve got Miggy Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Ian Kinsler, but the Red Sox have an above average offensive performer at every position, except catcher and even there Sandy Leon has a 1.198 OPS in his 74 plate appearances, depending on who gets the start.
Hanley Ramirez is swinging a hot bat right now and is one of six players with at least 11 homers. He’s joined in the infield by an All-Star shortstop and one of the most stable second basemen in the game. Meanwhile the outfield is dominant and David Ortiz defies the idea of aging at the designated hitter position.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 5, Tigers 4
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