The Tigers and White Sox kick off a crucial four game series on Thursday with both teams vying for positioning in the AL Central and wildcard races. Chicago needs a big weekend while Detroit cannot afford to give back any games at this point in the season either.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
After a 17-8 start to the season in April, the ChiSox have gone 28-38. Desperate to stay in the race, Chicago has added players and made moves, but nothing seems to help.
After losing their last game of the first half, they’ve opened the second half by being swept in three games by the Angels and the series starting on Thursday against Detroit could go as far as deciding if the White Sox will buy, sell or hold at the deadline.
Detroit, on the other hand, has won four of six against this Sox team already and are 24-17 since the start of June.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
James Shields will be on the mound for Chicago on Thursday and while the Tigers haven’t yet announced their rotation for the weekend series, it would be Mike Pelfrey’s turn.
Shields has had a poor season overall. Split between San Diego and Chicago, the veteran right-hander is just 4-11 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.518 WHIP. His numbers are inflated, but they’re not high due to luck. He’s see his home run and walk rates jump up over the last couple years and his strikeout rate is down to just 6.3 per nine innings in his 19 starts.
Since joining the White Sox, his numbers have gotten worse. He’s 2-4 with a 6.42 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in 42 innings with his new team. He’s got a strikeout to walk rate of only one.
In fact, he was so bad that after just a few games with the White Sox there was talk of him losing his spot in the rotation despite the relatively high price tag Chicago paid to obtain him.
After giving up 24 earned runs in just 13 2/3 innings spread over four starts, Shields has pitched better in his last four with the White Sox. In those games, he’s gone at least six innings each time, giving up no more than two runs.
Over his last four games, Shields has pitched to a 1.91 ERA, though he is only 2-2 given low run support. The Sox were shut out in his last two starts.
Similar to Shields, Pelfrey has been a disappointment since joining his team. Unlike Shields, however, Pelfrey doesn’t have a success over his last few starts to create any sort of optimism moving forward.
Through 19 starts, the veteran right-hander is only 2-9 with a 4.95 ERA. His last start, against Kansas City, ended without him getting out of the second inning before he gave up five runs and was pulled. He walked four while recording only five outs.
In two starts against the White Sox this year, Pelfrey’s numbers are in line with his overall numbers. He does have a win against Chicago, in a game where he gave up two runs in six innings, but has another game where he got the loss, giving up four runs over six.
LIVE BETTING
Detroit is a good offensive team, particularly compared to a flawed White Sox club, but given the talent on this team, they should be even better.
Justin Upton has to date been one of the biggest free agent failures of the offseason. The Tigers expected the talented outfielder to combine with Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and J.D. Martinez to make one of the most fearsome middle of the orders in baseball.
Instead, J.D. Martinez is now on the disabled list and J-Up is hitting .232 with nine homers and a .663 OPS.
Cabrera and Victor Martinez are still racking and surprisingly Cameron Maybin has a .813 OPS while Nick Castellanos has been hitting all season. Those two help make up the difference for Upton, but thanks to 113 strikeouts, Upton is a reprieve in the lineup for opposing pitchers who can get him out if they make their pitches.
In addition, James McCann and Jose Iglesias aren’t giving much offense either, put at least they’re playing top-notch defense as prime positions.
Should Chicago be able to put together a lead against Pelfrey into the mid innings behind a homer off the bat of Todd Frazier or thanks to Adam Eaton and Melky Cabrera setting the table, Chicago has the personnel in the back end of the pen to shut the door.
The Sox as a team have a 3.40 bullpen ERA, the fourth best in the AL. The Tigers, by comparison, rank No. 13 with a 4.46 ERA. The bullpen has been an issue for Detroit for years no matter what they do to address it.
QUICK PICK
Given the recent, and relatively long term, trends, the Tigers are the better team and the logical pick to win this series, even on the road where they’ve struggled this season.
On Thursday’s series opener, however, the pitching matchup may be in the White Sox’s favor. Shields has turned things around and given his team a legitimate chance to win four straight games. Unfortunately for him, the offense has been silent in the last two.
Pelfrey, however, isn’t a prolific pitcher and Chicago should at least put a few runs on the board against him and the Tigers’ lackluster bullpen.
MLB Odds: White Sox 4, Tigers 3
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! First pitch for the game between the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox is scheduled for Thursday, July 21, 2016, at 8:10 p.m. ET at U.S. Cellular Field. The matchup will be televised regionally on Comcast SportsNet in Chicago and FoxSports in Detroit.
