Cleveland was baseball’s hottest team in the month of June. They’ll hope that excellence carries over into July on the 4th when the Indians welcome Miguel Cabrera and the division rival Detroit Tigers into Progressive for the first of a crucial three game series.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
It’s still not coming together for the Detroit Tigers. While the club sits two games over .500 for the season, something just seems to be missing. Unfortunately for the vets on this team, it has more to do with the coaching staff assembled than the players on the field. The offense is mashing at a tremendous clip in scoring an average of 4.8 runs per game (#9) while launching the sixth most home runs (104). While pitching – both from the starters and relievers – has been below league average, you can’t help but get annoyed with the late game decisions that’ve cost this team wins. The Tigers sit five games under .500 on the road (-$196), and no potential division winner can play losing ball away from their home park.
Winners of 12 straight heading into Thursday night’s series opener north of the border with the blue Jays, the Tribe was yet to lose ever since the Cavaliers brought the city of Cleveland its first ever championship title. In doing so, the Indians built their lead to six games over the Kansas City Royals atop the AL Central standings. If they beat Toronto on Thursday, they will have tied the franchise record for most consecutive victories set back in 1942 and 51. Cleveland is now the -300 favorite to win the AL Central as well as a 10-1 choice to win the World Series.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
It’s been an arduous adventure back to the big leagues for Daniel Norris, but the left-hander has a shot of sticking within the Tigers starting rotation should he be able to build off his first two starts since getting called back up. Growing pains were incurred as the long ball hurt him against the Mariners in his first start of 2016, and then pitch count forced him out after the fifth against the Marlins most recently. Through 10 combined innings, he allowed 14 hits but only 5 ER while walking just one and setting 13 down via the strikeout. The kids got an electric arm, but he’s got some grooming to do before he can consistently utilize it.
Danny Salazar checks in as the No. 30 most lucrative starting pitcher to back this season. He’s 10-3 overall with a miniscule 2.22 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Most importantly, he’s up $392 for baseball bettors with the Indians 10-5 in his 15 overall starts. He enters his sixteenth on a roll having conceded just seven earned runs in his last 35 innings of work to go along with 40 strikeouts and 17 walks. At home, he’s been at his absolute best in going 5-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.91 WHIP through 42+ innings of work. He does own a losing 3-4 record against Detroit lifetime, but did log a win against them back on June 24 at Comerica after tossing 5.2 innings of 3 ER ball. He was still able to log the win even though he issued five free passes.
LIVE BETTING
Ian Kinsler is in the midst of a bounce back season. He’s the No. 4 ranked second baseman in fantasy baseball with him hitting .295 and launching 14 home runs to go along with 47 RBI and eight stolen bases.
He’s one to target if you plan on partaking in some player prop wagers on the 4th of July, as he’s batting .292 against Salazar lifetime with a 1 HR, 5 RBI and four walks to just three strikeouts in 24 at-bats. Nine of his home runs hit to date have come on the road, and Salazar is known for giving up the long ball to division opponents.
QUICK PICK
As big a series as this is for the Tigers, I just don’t see them having enough overall ammunition to see this one all the way through. In time, Daniel Norris could be a solid arm within Detroit’s starting staff. However, his stuff is way too raw and he’s got some growing to do before I’d be comfortable backing him against a team like Cleveland which is currently firing on all cylinders. Salazar’s enjoying his finest season yet, and I expect that to continue tonight in front of a sold out stadium.
MLB Odds: Indians 6, Tigers 4
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