Cleveland can put away the AL Central this weekend as they take on the Tigers in three game set. Even if the division is out of reach, Detroit needs a series win to stay within shouting distance in a crowded AL Wild Card race and must take the pivotal middle game on Saturday.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Tigers have been a streaky team this season and that’s evident when looking at their records against various opponents. For instance, they’re 11-3 against Minnesota. While they have the Twins’ number, the Indians have theirs, beating them in 11 of 12 meetings.
With such dominating success against Detroit, the Indians should go into the game with plenty of confidence while the Tigers could find themselves pressing given their recent track record against them and need to get the win.
In fact, the pressure may be getting to the Tigers already as they’ve lost five of their last seven games, including one to the Twins. Or, perhaps it’s just the streaky nature of this team. Either way, it doesn’t bode well for Detroit who needs a couple good games against Minnesota to put them in a good place before heading to Cleveland.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
The Tigers rotation is still up in the air as Brad Ausmus juggles around his arms in an effort to keep everyone fresh and avoid Jordan Zimmermann who proved he wasn’t quite right in his last start.
With Mike Pelfrey back in the rotation for a spot start on Thursday, Justin Verlander and Michael Fulmer are the likely starters for Friday and Saturday. We just don’t know the order.
Verlander would be on normal rest on Friday and Fulmer’s already been pushed back so an extra day for the youngster already well past his previous career high in innings makes sense, but given the veteran workhorse an extra day would be nice, too.
Either option is a good for Detroit. These two have led the rotation with Verlander looking like his old self and Fulmer—10 years his junior—keeping pace.
Verlander is 14-8 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.025 while Fulmer is 10-6 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.051 WHIP in seven fewer starts. Both are doing good jobs limiting free passes while Verlander is the better strikeout pitcher and Fulmer does better inducing weak contact.
Fulmer and Verlander both last pitched against the Orioles with the youngster having the better outing. Verlander struggled some, but he still give Detroit a chance to win, allowing just three runs. It did, however, snap a string of 11 straight quality starts.
While Detroit will throw one if its best two starters, so will the Indians with Carlos Carrasco lined up to make the start.
The 29-year old right-hander is a power pitcher and despite losing his release point a couple times this year as good cumulative numbers. He’s 11-8 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.141 WHIP and is striking out 9.2 per game.
Carrasco missed the month of May, but through his first 15 starts going through July, he had a 2.45 ERA and the Indians were 11-4 when he took the ball.
He seemed to loss it from there, allowing eight runs in 3.2 innings against the Twins, but had three straight quality starts after, then another clunker, then an eight-inning shutout. Just when it looks like he’s righted the ship, he struggles again. Saturday could go either way. His last two outings weren’t good, particularly his last one. He’s allowed nine runs in his last 11 innings and in his last start gave up five runs—four earned—in 3.2 innings to the White Sox.
LIVE BETTING
When you have good pitchers on the mound for both teams along with balanced offenses, you are often going to see a close game. That puts a lot of pressure on the bullpen as they are asked to hold slim leads and/or keep the team close.
For Detroit, the bullpen has been a perpetual problem for years. Francisco Rodriguez has helped some, but there’s still some trouble bridging the gap to him in the ninth inning.
The Indians helped fill that gap during the trade deadline by bringing in Andrew Miller. Terry Francona has shown he’s willing to use Miller any time in the game based on matchups and need. Miller himself can truly be the difference maker in match ups like this one.
QUICK PICK
The names on the back of the jerseys for these starts would indicate a low scoring game, but outside of Fulmer, the others are coming off power outings. That’s especially true for Carrasco, but he’s still shown flashes of good starts over the last couple months and he seems to be due for another one.
Still, be careful of taking the under in the run total because the names are likely to push that down even if the recent trends aren’t as favorable.
Nevertheless, this shouldn’t be a slugfest. Fulmer is throwing well and Verlander has pitched well save his last start for months now. As for Carrasco, there’s a chance he has a bad outing, but as noted, he’s due for a good one and the Tigers are as good a team for that to come against as anyone given just how bad they’ve been against Cleveland this year.
With the Tigers also slumping a bit right now and pressing as their playoff chances get longer and longer, this game should fall into the Indian’s lap.
MLB Odds: Indians 4, Tigers 3
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