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With each passing day, this Kansas City Royals team inches closer to disbanding the core that got them back-to-back American League pennants and a World Series title. It doesn’t seem like that long ago this was the surprise team on the positive side, now it’s a bit of a surprise how quickly they’ve gone the other way. While things look down for the Royals, this is a team that’s been an absolute thorn in the Detroit Tigers’ side the last few years. The Tigers will meet their division foe for the first time this season on Monday, kicking off a three-game set.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Royals have scored the fewest runs in baseball and fewest in the AL by quiet a considerable margin.
Kansas City is swinging the bat better as a team over the last month, showing more power and scoring a few more runs. With that, the Royals have had an above-.500 month. But since sweeping the Orioles, they’re just 3-6 in their last nine games, getting shutout in on Wednesday.
The Royals could not adequately replace Kendrys Morales in the offseason. Brandon Moss is a power bat, but he’s not a threat for anything but an occasion long ball. He’s hit eight out, but has only 11 RBIs and is batting .196.
In all, this is a disjointed lineup. Eric Hosmer is the star, but he’s a first baseman with little pop. He does have a .359 OBP, but is only a bit over league average despite playing a premium offensive position.
Salvador Perez is a good hitting catcher and Mike Moustakas is hitting well, but this team has three every day players still hitting below the Mendoza line and four if you count Jorge Soler who is hitting .157 since coming off the DL.
The Tigers’ offense has several holes, too. Everyone is hitting over .200, but most everyone is having subpar years except J.D. Martinez who is hitting like gang busters since coming off the DL. He’s batting .364 with six homers and a 1.442 OPS in 11 games.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
We may be in for a bullpen game. Daniel Norris and Jason Hammel are scheduled to start for their respective teams with Norris averaging just 4.2 innings per appearances and Hammel sitting at 5.1.
Pitch count has been a huge issue for Norris. He’s done an okay job minimizing damage, but has a 1.622 WHIP in nine starts with 10.4 hits per nine innings and 23 walks allowed in 49.1 innings.
Norris is 2-3 with a 4.38 ERA overall and his FIP is surprisingly low at 3.83.
The 24-year old lefty is coming off his longest start of the season. He went 6.1 innings against a stacked Houston lineup, allowing just two runs—one earned—on four hits. He was lifted after throwing just 98 pitches, his fewest since his first start of the year.
The improved pitch efficiency is a good sign for Monday’s game. If Norris can at least get through six solid innings, that certainly eases the pressure off a Tigers’ bullpen that is anything but a sure thing.
In four career starts against the Royals, Norris has pitched reasonably well with a 3.47 ERA, but has yet to record a win against them.
As for Hammel, the Royals added him later in the offseason to help replace Yordano Ventura. Hammel has been a good, mid-to-back of the rotation innings-eater in his career and that’s what the Royals were looking for from Hammel.
Traditionally, Hammel has been a better first half pitcher, but he’s just 1-6 with a 5.98 ERA and 1.693 WHIP through nine starts.
Simply put, Hammel has been below replacement level. The 34-year old fell off in the second half last year and the trend is continuing.
The Royals are 1-8 in games started by Hammel. The veteran right-hander has thrown only three quality starts all year, though one of them did come in his last start.
LIVE BETTING
What defined the Royals during their back-to-back World Series appearances was a dominant bullpen. That’s no longer a strength of this team. Kelvin Herrera has shown vulnerability in the closer role, giving up five home runs.
Joakim Soria has been a much better pitcher this year than last in the setup role and Mike Minor has been a nice surprise, but the rest of the pen has inflated ERAs.
The Tigers have always had an issue with the bullpen and the same is true this year. Justin Wilson, Alex Wilson and Shane Greene all have ERAs south of two in 20 or more games. They can shut the door in the late innings, but Francisco Rodriguez has been booted from the closer’s role, pushing the other three back an inning. Thus, a bridge to the seventh inning is missing and Norris doesn’t tend to go deep into games.
QUICK PICK
Both the Tigers and Royals have seen their lineup underperform, but the Tigers have the better players with better track records who are better bets to turn things around, even if age isn’t on their side.
Norris has been the better starter, too, and as long as Norris can go six innings like he did in his last start, this pen has a few arms that Brad Ausmus can lean on to close out the game.
This game will be played in Kansas City and the Royals have had the Tigers’ number over the last few years. While the Tigers are an aging team, the Royals are on a faster decline.
MLB Odds: Tigers 8, Royals 4
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