It hasn’t been the best of seasons for the Yankees. But their winning percentage is considerably higher when Masahiro Tanaka takes the bump. New York is 8-4 in games started by their ace and the Yanks have won five straight Tanaka starts at home.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
For as dire as things seemed for the Tigers just a few weeks ago, they seem equally optimistic now. Frustration has been replaced with confidence Dread has given way to belief. And disappointing losses have taken a backseat to comeback victories.
The latest happened on Tuesday night when Detroit rallied in the ninth inning and walked-off Toronto in the 10th for its fifth straight win. The AL Central is bunching closer together with no more than four games separating the top four teams in the division. And suddenly, the Tigers are back in the hunt.
Detroit failed to get the sweep of the Blue Jays, falling 7-2 on Wednesday, but the Tigers are 6-2 and up 4.41 units on the moneyline in their last eight games heading into New York.
The Yankees are on a little run of their own, improving to 5-2 over their last seven games following a 12-6 win over the Angels on Wednesday, a stretch that started with a win in Detroit on June 2. The teams completed their series from earlier this season with that makeup game. It took nearly two months but the Yankees took two of three from the Tigers.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Justin Verlander (5-5, 3.97 ERA) pitched well in his last outing, giving up two solo home runs among five hits with eight strikeouts in seven innings in Sunday’s 5-2 win over the White Sox. His stinginess in allowing base runners limited the damage. He walked one and threw an impressive 76 of 104 pitches for strikes. The strong outing also dropped his ERA below 4.00 for the first time all season.
Verlander was a Yankee nemesis for years in postseason play, but he’s 0-4 with a 4.84 ERA in seven regular season starts at new Yankee Stadium. He gave up three home runs over 6.2 innings of six-run ball there last June.
Masahiro Tanaka (3-1, 2.76 ERA) took a no-decision in a stellar outing against the Angels on Monday, allowing two runs in seven innings. He surrendered six hits and walked one while fanning three. Tanaka has been the Yankees most consistent starter and enters this matchup with a run of four straight quality starts. He’s posted a 1.33 ERA in that span and lasted seven innings in three of the four games.
Coinciding with Tanaka’s ability to keep runners from scoring has been a decrease in his strikeouts. He has just five over 13 innings of his last two games. Tanaka was blasted by the Tigers when he faced them last June, giving up 10 hits and five earned runs in five innings of 12-4 loss at Yankee Stadium.
LIVE BETTING
You hate to call a 39-year-old a sparkplug, but that’s just what Carlos Beltran has been for the Yankees this season. He leads their offense in several key categories and looks especially dialed in at the dish the past month. That includes a home run in each of the first three games against the Angels.
The Yankees aren’t very good this season and that’s especially true on offense, where they rank in the bottom third of the league in hits, runs, batting average and on-base percentage. Without Beltran they’d be much worse. The Yanks have hit 64 homers this season, but if you take away Beltran’s 16, they’d have fewer than every team that’s not the Atlanta Braves. Beltran leads the team in homers, RBIs and slugging percentage – all by a wide margin.
QUICK PICK
Both teams enter on a little roll and will trot their ace to the bump on Saturday night. The Yankees ace has been better than Detroit’s ace this year and that gives the pin stripers an edge. Tanaka has allowed more than two earned runs just twice in his 12 starts and he’s been extremely effective over his last four.
The last time Tanaka faced the Tigers he allowed a career-high 10 hits. That’s highly unusual for the Japanese import and he will be better against them this time around. The Yankees bats came alive against the Angels and that’s a good sign heading into the weekend.
MLB Odds: New York 5, Detroit 2
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