Much of the American League remains within a few games of .500 and nearly every team is within a handful of game from a playoff spot. The Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers kickoff a four-game series on Monday amongst the collection of mediocre teams in the AL. In the first series of the year, the Mariners took two of three.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Tigers aren’t getting their players playing to the back of their baseball cards. Players up and down the lineup just aren’t producing and the starting rotation—save for Michael Fulmer—has been a mess.
It seems the things that have been trademarks for the recent Tigers’ teams are gone with one exception: a disastrous bullpen.
Over the years, the Tigers have had great teams with one Achilles Heel: the bullpen. This year, they’ve got added warts, but the pen is still at the heart of their struggles.
Francisco Rodriguez has been throwing better, but is currently relegated to low-leverage roles. Shane Green and Justin Wilson have solid ERAs, but the unit in aggregate ranks No. 27 in ERA at 4.99.
Seattle’s pen hasn’t been great, but has a bit more cohesion now. They’re pitching better and the Mariners are playing better. Seattle is 12-6 in their last 18 games though they’re 3-5 in their last eight, including a 20-7 loss on Tuesday.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Neither team has announced the starters for the series, but based on how the rotations lineup, we should see Jordan Zimmermann for the Tigers against Sam Gaviglio for Seattle.
One of the many arms used with the rash of injuries in the Mariners’ rotation, Gaviglio’s taken advantage of his opportunity.
The 27-year old right-hander made his Major-League debut earlier this year and is 3-1 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.165 WHIP in his seven games—including six starts.
The rookie was a mediocre minor league pitcher with a sub-.500 record and 4.01 ERA.
While most of the high-level numbers are positive for Gaviglio, his FIP is well above his ERA and home runs have been an issue. He’s allowed nine in seven starts.
Nevertheless, the Mariners are 5-2 when he gets the ball and 5-1 in his six starts. That said, the opposition has scored at least four runs against him in three of his starts, including his last outing where the Twins platted four in 5.1 innings, slamming three homers.
Gaviglio’s overall numbers paint a positive picture and upon digging deeper, we see some concerns. Zimmermann, on the other hand, has a 5.35 ERA and 1.367 WHIP. He’s only striking out 5.7 per nine innings and has already given up 17 home runs in 13 games.
A bust last year, Zimmermann’s numbers tell a similar story. The former All-Star has been much better since the beginning of June. In his last three starts, Zimmermann has thrown 20 innings, allowing five runs on 19 hits and allowing just a single home run. His ERA has dropped a full run in that span, but the Tigers are 1-2.
The 31-year old right-hander has a proven track record of success, but has struggled for a while now. Can we believe this three-game stretch is a sign of things to come?
LIVE BETTING
Miguel Cabrera delivered a walk-off home run on Thursday night. That normally wouldn’t be worth noting, but it was just Miggy’s sixth home run of the season.
The Tigers have a stacked, veteran lineup that should be delivering plenty of offense, but Detroit’s seen Ian Kinsler struggle to hit .250, Cabrera’s power disappear and Victor Martinez be pedestrian at best.
With so many underperformers, it’s no wonder the Tigers are three games under-.500. J.D. Martinez and Justin Upton are slugging, but there’s too much inconsistency elsewhere in the lineup.
The Mariners’ offense is flat out better right now. They’re second to the Yankees in all of baseball in runs scored in June; at least they were heading into Thursday.
Mike Zunino has been a completely different player since coming back from Triple-A. He’s red-hot and providing some extra pop. Mitch Haniger is back and Ben Gamel is also hitting. They’re at the top of the lineup with Jean Segura out and then the Mariners follow that up with Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager before a significant drop off at the bottom of the order.
The Mariners’ are swinging better than Detroit right now, though the Cabrera is a major catalyst for the Tigers so his homer may be a good sign of things to come.
QUICK PICK
Zimmermann is throwing the ball well right now. The bullpen is a threat to give it up, but there are enough pieces to lock this down. Besides, Seattle’s bullpen hasn’t been that great this year either.
Look for Zimmerman to out duel Gaviglio as for the Tigers’ lineup to start coming around. Cabrera and V-Mart are too good of hitters to continue their struggles for too long.
If you look at the Tigers’ lineup, it’s a good lineup by the names. They can match up with Seattle on offense. They’ve got the better starter going right now based on their last few starts—and the peripheral numbers especially.
MLB Odds: Tigers 7, Mariners 5
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