The Rangers managed a three game sweep of the Tigers when they met earlier this season, but Detroit is playing much better baseball right now and will look to get the series off on a strong foot, returning the favor on Friday; but they’ve got an uphill battle.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
After coasting for a while and seeing their winning percentage continue to dip, the Rangers may have finally gotten back on track.
Texas has won eight of their last 11 games as of Tuesday, much of that coming on the road. They’ll be back home to kick off the weekend series with Detroit on Friday where they’re 34-17.
While the Rangers last 11 games are encouraging, the Tigers last 13 have been better, going 10-3. Nevertheless, two of those three losses have come in back-to-back games leading into Tuesday. They’ve also lost three of their last five. To add to that, Detroit is a couple games under-.500 on the road.
All in all, these two teams have been the best bets all season long with a $2,490 total moneyline for Texas and a $1,506 mark for the Tigers.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Yu Darvish was on top of his game in his last start, going seven strong innings against Houston, holding them scoreless while allowing five hits and striking out eight. He’ll be on the mound again on Friday to open the series with Detroit.
Darvish has been eased back into action after missing the first part of the year recovering from Tommy John surgery and then being sidelined again for a month after just three starts.
Since coming off the DL for the second time, Darvish has shown a steady progression forward. His first few outings, he was limited in innings and was inefficient with his pitch count as he struggled a bit with command. That’s since been ironed out.
The 29-year old right-hander has now thrown four straight quality starts and has allowed just seven runs in 25 1/3 innings during that time, striking out 34 and walking just two.
Overall, Darvish is 2-3 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in his 45 1/3 innings here in 2016 and looks to be back to his top of the rotation form.
The Tigers have yet to announce their starters for the weekend series against the Rangers, but Friday should be Matt Boyd’s turn.
The young southpaw has been okay this season. He’s 3-2 in 11 games—including 10 starts—posting a 4.77 ERA and 1.317 WHIP.
Boyd hasn’t gone deep in many games this year, leaving the Tigers lackluster middle relievers a bit exposed to a strong Rangers’ lineup.
In each of Boyd’s last two games, he gave up three runs in five innings, tossing at least 100 pitches in each. He’ll have to become more pitch efficient to go deeper into the games. He’ll also need to avoid the long ball against Texas. He’s given up four in his last two games.
LIVE BETTING
The Rangers made the biggest splashes at the trade deadline—at least on offense—adding catcher Jonathan LuCroy and outfielder/designated hitter Carlos Beltran.
Both LuCroy and Beltran have gotten off to strong starts in their first week with Texas, but the rest of the lineup has gone cold. The Rangers have scored the second fewest runs of any team since the break.
That won’t last long, but the current trends don’t favor Texas offensively. Nomar Mazara has struggled after his hot start to his big league career. Still, the collection of players including Shin-Soo Choo, Jurickson Profar, Ian Desmond and Adrian Beltre are just too good to expect to struggle for long, particularly against a pitcher who himself is struggling.
Detroit hasn’t been mashing the ball the last week either with 27 runs in their last seven games. A nice turnaround from Justin Upton, however, is huge. He has a .796 OPS since the break and four homers. The return of J.D. Martinez helps, too, but it’s a bit of a trade off with Nick Castellanos sidelined now. To replace him, Casey McGehee is back in the big leagues after a strong season with Triple-A Toledo.
QUICK PICK
There’s no doubt who the pitching matchup favors. The Rangers have one of the game’s true aces on the hill against a youngster who struggles with pitch count and location. That’s pretty straight forward. If you factor in just how strong a home team Texas is and just how deep their remade lineup is—ignoring the last week’s results than this is an open and shut case.
Of course, the Tigers are too good of a team, and too good of an offense, to expect them to just roll over, but look to Texas to get the win and close the door with their bullpen which has Sam Dyson and Jeremy Jeffress in the backend which is plenty to close it out despite the team’s inflated bullpen ERA.
MLB Odds: Rangers 7, Tigers 3
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