Based solely on record, the Arizona Diamondbacks are the better team and should have the edge in their weekday series against the Pittsburgh Pirates starting on Monday. The best of three, however, will be played in the Steel City which changes things drastically. Despite the suspension, injuries and ineffectiveness, the Pirates are still an over .500 at home while the DBacks are a below average squad away from the desert.
This series will be contested from Monday, May 29, 2017 through Wednesday, May 31, 2017 at PNC Park in Pittsburgh.
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Pitching Matchups
There’s no Zack Greinke or Gerrit Cole in this series, so the premium matchup will be the middle game on Tuesday which will feature Robbie Ray against Ivan Nova.
Ray is still a bit of a thrower, but he’s got the stuff to get away with it more times than not. He needs to refine his command and learn to locate his pitches, but his 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings help bail him out of trouble more times than not.
The 25-year old southpaw is continuously improving. He was a 15-loss pitcher last year with a 4.90 ERA, but he had a 11.3 K/9 ratio and a 3.76 FIP so his massive improvement in the main stats through 10 games isn’t nearly the aberration from his career stats as it would seem, instead, it’s a reasonable progression.
Ray will come into the game red hot, having shutout both the Padres and, much more impressively, the Brewers pitching at least seven innings in both starts.
His start against Milwaukee was particularly encouraging as he allowed the Brew Crew two hits without allowing a walk and threw only 102 pitches against a strong offense while completing seven innings and striking out nine in the process.
Of course, equally important to remember, prior to those two strong starts, Ray lasted just four innings against this same Pittsburgh team, giving up four runs on six hits, including a pair of longballs.
As for Nova, the Rey Searage pixie dust is still alive and well for the 30-year old. Nova’s continued to improve under Searage’s hand and is 5-3 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.086 WHIP for a struggling Pirates’ team. He’s already notched two complete games, including shutout as he can provide depth in addition to quality.
While command can plague Ray, it’s a strength for Nova who has walked just five batters in 70 innings. Of course, he’s only struck out 37, instead preferring to induce weak contact. Typically contact pitchers tend to have inflated FIPs, but Nova’s FIP is 3.18 and very much in line with his ERA.
While Tuesday is the showcase matchup, we cannot ignore the other two games.
Monday’s start features two hurlers doing their best to maintain their respective spots in the rotation. Randall Delgado earned the nod for the DBacks after going four innings of one-run ball in his first start. He’ll be more stretched out for Monday, but will presumably still be on a rather tight pitch count.
Trevor Williams for the Pirates will be toeing the rubber Monday. He is coming off his best start of the year in terms of strikeouts, sitting down six in five innings. He did give up three runs. The last time he faced Arizona, however, we allowed just one in five innings. Nevertheless, his ERA is still 5.93. He is very beatable. The Pirates are 4-6 in his 10 appearances and 2-2 in his four starts.
These two teams will wrap up the series with Zack Godley and Chad Kuhl on the bump.
Godley threw six scoreless against the Brewers in his last start and now has four straight quality starts. He’s 1-1 with a 1.99 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in his five starts and has been more than admirable since taking over the spot in the rotation from Shelby Miller.
Kuhl is your average, run-of-the-mill, fill-in starter who is currently over exposed and in a rut. He’s 1-5 with a 6.29 ERA. He’s not been as bad as those numbers, but he’s not been great either. He could benefit from some time at Triple-A, but the Pirates don’t have many other options.
Who's Hot?
Paul Goldschmidt is perpetually hot, but it never hurts to bring his name up again as he’s still one of the most underpaid and underrated players in the game.
As normal, Goldy is once again batting above .300 at .317 and he’s again a great combination of speed and power. He’s hit 11 bombs and 12 doubles while stealing 12 bases and posting a .446 OBP and 1.024 OPS.
Goldschmidt is as consistent as they come, too, posting a .315 average and 1.054 OPS in May and a .315 average and .983 OPS in April.
With that, ‘hot’ may not be the right terms, perhaps just good instead. That same thing, to a slightly lesser extent, can be said about Jake Lamb who is having another fine year.
Over the past month, Nick Ahmed and Chris Herrmann have been good in their limited roles. Ahmed is hitting .306 in May and while Herrman is batting just .206 in May, he’s getting on base and showing some pop.
Fernando Rodney is anything but a shutdown closer, but in May, he’s pitched 8.2 scoreless innings, allowing just two hits and three walks. That’s pretty close to shut down.
For the Pirates, the only offense right now is coming from Josh Bell, Josh Harrison and Adam Frazier. Frazier is hitting .368 and almost making people forget about the whole Jung Ho Kang fiasco. Harrison’s resurgence helps, too.
Who's Not?
The list in this category is long for the Pirates. Andrew McCutchen looks done. He followed up a slow start in April with a .183 average in May. Jose Osuna hasn’t done anything and neither has David Freese. Both Osuna and Freese have averages under the Mendoza Line in May.
The bullpen has also been a bit less steady of late for the Pirates. Tony Watson is a big trade candidate moving forward, but he’s allowed five runs in his last five appearances and followed up a blown save against the Braves with a win, but a difficult one, giving up a pair of hits in an inning against the Mets.
Brandon Drury and Yasmani Tomas haven’t had good months of May. Drury is still hitting .278 for the month, but has struck out 22 times and in some big spots. Tomas is hitting .188 for the month.
More depressingly, A.J. Pollock is again on the DL.
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