Who would have thought the first-place team in this matchup would be the Milwaukee Brewers? Nevertheless, here we are in June and the Brew Crew top the NL Central while the Los Angeles Dodgers’ are neck and neck with the Diamondbacks and behind the Rockies in the NL West. To be fair, the Dodgers do still have the better record, but Milwaukee is without a doubt the better story and claim home field advantage for this three-game set.
This series will be contested from Friday, June 2, 2017 through Sunday, June 4, 2017 at Miller Park in Milwaukee.
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Pitching Matchups
Most of the time, when you play a team and how the rotations line up can determine your success in a series. Given the rotational matchups for the Brewers in this set, things don’t look too good.
The Dodgers will start the Brew Crew off with the best pitcher in baseball. Clayton Kershaw will be on the mound after failing to make it out of the fifth in his last start. He’ll be motivated with plenty to prove.
Even with a struggle his last time out, he is still 7-2 with a 2.37 ERA. His 0.947 WHIP in 76 innings shows how dominant he can be, but he’s been prone to the home run this year, allowing 10 of them. That’s something the Brewers do well: hit the long ball.
That’s one thing to give the Brewers a chance. They’ve also been better against Kershaw than most teams, of course that still translates to a 5-4 record and 3.11 ERA against them in 11 career starts.
As the series progresses, the Milwaukee hitters will then have to contend with Rich Hill on Saturday and Kenta Maeda on Sunday.
Hill does not go deep into games. He’ll give you a couple times through the order before turning things over to the pen. Usually, those two times through the order result in one or two runs in five or six innings.
Most bullpens are vulnerable in the middle, but if they’re rested enough—and with Kershaw starting the game prior they should be—the pen is a strength of this team.
As for Maeda, he’s pitched to a 5.21 ERA, but that number is deceiving. He was terrible in April, but has been a different pitcher in his last five starts. He went just four innings his last time out, facing the Cardinals in a second straight game, but prior to that, he had gone 25.1 innings in four starts, allowing eight runs.
So, the Dodgers will follow up their ace with two serviceable arms. The Brewers’ rotation is as good as they’ve pitched so far, but for now, their hurlers for this series—at least in the first two games—are throwing the ball well. The Brewers have Jimmy Nelson, Matt Garza and Zach Davies lined up for this series, in that order.
Nelson and Garza each have ERAs south of four while Davies leads the team in innings, despite a 5.18 ERA.
Nelson is coming off a one-run, seven-innings stint against a good hitting Diamondbacks team. The biggest difference for him this year is the first pitch strike. If he establishes his command early and gets ahead, his stuff plays.
As for the other two starts, Garza is a former top-of-the-rotation arm that’s fallen on hard times. He’s had a bounce back year, but has dropped his last two starts. Davies hasn’t found his rhythm at all this year, particularly at home where he’s allowed nearly 6.5 runs per nine.
Who's Hot?
Domingo Santana is hitting well right now. He’s hitting .329 over his last 24 games and is 8-for-24 with two home runs in the last week.
Over the last month, Santana has an OBP of .424 and along with Keon Broxton and Travis Shaw have been getting on base.
Eric Thames continues to hit, too. His home run totals have subsided some after his torrid pace to start the year. He’s still a threat to go deep each time up and helps provide a presence in the middle of the order, but he’s become more than just a home run threat. He’s got a .370 OBP in the last month despite a .216 average and only three home runs. He’s still producing on offense. Basically, the whole team is, except for Jonathan Villar who we will discuss later.
Somehow, the Dodgers continually find pieces that get cast aside, older prospects who become key players.
That happened with Justin Turner, who is now on the DL, and that’s the case right now with Chris Taylor. The 27-year old is batting .316 with six homers in 117 at bats. He’s getting on base more than 40-percent of the time and has an OPS of .909. Those are amazing numbers.
Cody Bellinger is getting all the acclaim right now, and rightfully so, but Taylor has been instrumental filling in for Logan Forsythe and others. Now, he’s a key piece with Turner out.
Who's Not?
The most significant downside to the Brewers right now is the play of Villar and the injury to Ryan Braun.
Thames’ power aside, Braun is the best hitter on this team. He provides average, power, some speed. He’s the complete package with or without steroids. Hernan Perez and Jesus Aguilar are nice fill-in, role player pieces, but Braun’s bat in the middle helps lengthen the lineup. Without it, this team isn’t as big of a threat.
As for Villar, he was a dynamic offensive player last year with speed, on-base ability and some surprising power. He’s not that player this year. He’s hitting just .211 with a .283 on base. Just image how good this league leading offense would be if it had a lead-off hitter like last year’s version of Villar setting the table.
As per usual, we have another issue with Yasiel Puig. This time, it’s performance based. The outfielder can look like the best player in baseball, then he can go cold and that’s the case right now.
Puig was a nice performer in April, but he’s hitting .214 in his last 24 games with a .645 OPS. He’s a player than needs to drive most of his on-base percentage off his average as he’s a free swinger who just happens to be missing most of the time right now.
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