We’ve got a pair division winners squaring off in a three game set in what both teams hope to be a season where they repeat atop their respective division. Both are well equipped to do just that with the Los Angeles Dodgers resigning their key free agents in the offseason and the Chicago Cubs looking even stronger, if that’s possible, than the team that won it all a year ago. The Dodgers will head to the windy city on Monday for the Cubs’ home opener.
This series will be contested from Monday, April 10, 2017 through Thursday, April 13, 2017 at Wrigley Field in Chicago. Monday's clash is being shown live on ESPN while the games on Wednesday and Thursday can be seen out-of-market on the MLB Network.
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Pitching Matchups
The Dodgers’ Rich Hill is already on the disabled list with a blister issue which will give Monday’s game to Alex Wood, making it a much less impressive Wood versus Jon Lester matchup in the Cubs’ home opener.
After a day off on Tuesday, Wednesday will feature a pair of veteran right-handers in Brandon McCarthy and John Lackey while Thursday’s showdown will pin two oft-injured, high-upside southpaws in Hyun-Jin Ryo and Brett Anderson.
Despite missing out on a spot in the starting rotation coming out of Spring Training, Wood is still a very good pitcher. The 26-year old southpaw has already pitched in at least part of five big league seasons with a 3.34 ERA making 77 of his 113 major league appearances as a starter.
Wood has also thrown pretty well against the Cubs in his career. He’s pitched in six games against Chicago—including three starts—going just 1-2, but posting a 3.79 ERA though he’s allowing 23 hits and seven walks in only 19 inning of work.
On the other side of that matchup, Lester was the runner up in the Cy Young Award voting last year with a 19-5 record and 2.44 ERA. In his career against the Dodgers, he’s 2-2 with a 3.06 ERA in five starts. Lester also pitched five innings of one-run ball in his first start of the season against a stacked Cardinals lineup.
Lackey gets the ball on Wednesday after giving up four runs—three earned—in six innings against the Cardinals. Lackey’s best season came as a member of the Red Birds in 2015 when he pitched to a 2.77 ERA. He wasn’t quite as dominant last year, but still give the Cubs a consistent arm as he went 11-8 with a 3.35 ERA. McCarthy, meanwhile, spent most of 2016 on the shelf. He ended up pitching just 40 innings, going 2-3 with a 4.95 ERA, but won the spot in the spring and delivered six innings with just two runs allowed in his season debut.
As for Thursday’s matchup, Anderson will get a chance to prove himself against his former team. Anderson pitched very well for the Dodgers in 2015, but was back on the DL last year save for 11.1 big league innings in which he gave up 15 runs and 25 hits. Of course, that was more than Ryu who had just 4.2 innings, giving up six runs in that time.
Anderson also outperformed Ryu when you compare the two hurlers’ 2017 debuts. Anderson went 5.2 against the Brew Crew, allowing a single run while Ryu failed to get out of the fifth, giving up six hits and a pair of runs to the Rockies. In all fairness, Ryu did have the more challenging opponent.
Betting Trends
The Cubs are sending two lefties to face the Dodgers in the three game series and that does not bode well for the visitors from Hollywood. Two of Los Angeles’ three losses this season have come with a southpaw starting against them. The team was held down by Rockies’ rookie lefty Kyle Freeland and the Padres’ reclamation project: Clayton Richards. The Dodgers scored one combined run in the two games started by that tandem.
If this was in a vacuum we could chalk those games up to a coincidence and move on, but this is a pattern for the Dodgers dating back to last season.
Los Angeles was one of the best teams in the sport if they were facing a right-hander and they’re always an easy favorite when Clayton Kershaw is on the bump for them regardless of the opponent. That all said, things are vastly different when this team faces a lefty.
Last year, the Dodgers hit .213 against southpaws with a .622 OPS. Those numbers are abysmal, particularly for a team that’s supposed to be one of the possible options to unseat the Cubs in the NL this year. So far, in 2017, the Dodgers have had 73 at bats against lefties and they’re hitting .192 with a .555 OPS.
The team is stocked full of left-handed hitters and switch hitters with a weaker right-side swing. Players like Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez, Joc Pederson and Yasmani Grandal are all better against the right-handers. Add to that a weak start for Franklin Gutierrez whose sole job is to hit the southpaws and were back into the same pattern as a year ago.
The addition of Logan Forsythe and an improved Yasiel Puig should help and make 2017’s team not nearly as bad against lefties as the 2016 version, but that’s yet to come to fruition through the season’s first week. Until that starts to show, be weary of backing the Dodgers in any game started by a lefty.
Players to Watch
The Dodgers have the more known quantity in the backend of their pen with Kenley Jansen closing the door. We’ve seen how strong a closer he can be. Meanwhile, the Cubs counter in the ninth with Wade Davis who’s proven to be just as nasty, but did have some health concerns at the end of last year to at least provide that wrinkle of doubt.
Davis has already recorded a pair of saves and has allowed just one hit and one walk in 2.1 scoreless innings. Carl Edwards Jr. and Koji Uehara have each delivered three scoreless outings, too, as the Cubs are deeper in the backend after their closer.
Another player to watch is the Cubs sometimes right-fielder sometimes center-fielder Jason Heyward. Known for his glove in the corner, he’s an asset on the field, but he lost himself at bats in the postseason last year due to his bat. He was bad offensively last year and looked lost at the plate. He completely reworked his swing in the offseason and it seems to be paying dividends. He’s 7-for-21 with a triple in his first five games and is tied for the team lead with four RBIs.
With Heyward hitting, that’s one more bat in an already loaded Cubs lineup.
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