The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets are two teams heading in opposite directions, but they meet up over the weekend in the Big Apple for a three-game set. Los Angeles continues to roll after making waves at the trade deadline while the Mets are headed towards the future after the promotion of top prospect Amed Rosario. Dominic Smith probably will remain in the minors for this series, but he could be up soon, too.
This series will be contested from Friday, August 4, 2017 through Sunday, August 6, 2017 at Citi Field in New York. The Saturday afternoon showdown will be broadcast nationally on Fox Sports 1 and the Sunday night series finale will be on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball broadcast.
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Pitching Matchups
While the games on Saturday and Sunday will be on the national airwaves, Friday night’s matchup will be the best; at least if you are into pitching.
The Mets will open the series against the best team in baseball with their best starter, sending right-hander Jacob deGrom to the mound. The Dodgers will counter with newly-acquired righty Yu Darvish.
This will be Darvish’s first start as a Dodger and just his second time every at Citi Field.
Darvish has bounced back well from this Tommy John surgery. He pitched to a 3.41 ERA last year in 17 starts and was an All-Star this year. The righty has shown he can be a true ace and was 6-8 with a 3.44 ERA prior to his last start. In that start, he allowed 10 runs in 3.2 innings against the Marlins. That bumped his season ERA up to 4.01.
There are a lot of reasons leading into why he may have struggled. Most prominent in that list are the trade rumors swirling around the righty. Darvish is not accustomed to that atmosphere and there’s thought that could have rattled him. It’ll be worth watching to see how he adjusts to his new team and new situation.
Prior to his blow-up start, he had five quality start in his previous six outings. He’s a dependable arm who should provide dependable innings.
As for deGrom, he’s been the only dependable Mets starter in terms of both health and performance this season. The right-hander is 12-4 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.153 WHIP. Those numbers are even more impressive in the context of spotty run support and a questionable bullpen behind him.
While there are some questions about how Darvish will respond on Friday given his last start and change of scenery, it’s certain what the Mets can expect from deGrom, even against a strong offense like the Dodgers.
deGrom has eight quality starts in his last nine appearances, the lone exception being a seven-inning performance where he allowed four runs on four homers. Outside of that, he’s allowed just three homers in the other eight games. His ERA is 1.73 over his last nine games and New York is 8-1 in those games.
As the series progresses to Saturday, the matchup swings heavily in the Dodgers’ favor with Rich Hill opposite Seth Lugo.
Hill has allowed two or fewer runs in 12 of his 15 starts. He’s not one to go deep into games, but with the Dodgers’ bullpen he doesn’t have to do so. Still, he gives quality innings when he’s on the mound and is a formidable opponent given his big sweeping curve.
The veteran southpaw is 8-4 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.179 WHIP in 78 innings. He’s coming off a dynamic month of July where he was 4-0 with a 1.45 ERA in five starts.
Lugo, on the other hand, is coming off a five runs outing against the Mariners. He’s allowed nine runs, eight earned, over 11 innings in his last two starts. In that time, he allowed 16 hits including four homers. Interestingly, he hasn’t walked a batter.
Overall, the young righty is 5-3 with a 4.53 ERA. He’s got a career 3.55 ERA in 27 games, but his career FIP is a much higher 4.38, much more in line with his 2017 numbers. He’s not a bad pitcher either way, but his recent stats paint a picture of an average starter.
This series will wrap up on Sunday as Hyun-Jin Ryu and Steven Matz would be lined up for the start.
Ryu has pitched well in 16 appearances, including 15 starts, this season. He’s only 3-6, but has a 3.83 ERA in his 84.2 innings. Like the rest of this, now deep, rotation, he’s posted an above average ERA+ and has been particularly sharp of late. He’s coming off seven scoreless innings against the Giants in his last start and went five innings, allowing two runs when he faced the Mets back in June.
As for Matz, the 26-year old southpaw is having a rough time. He’s allowed 24 runs over his last five games, spanning just 19.1 innings, raising his ERA from 2.12 all the way to 5.50. He’s allowed five homers in those five games and has allowed 40 hits. Interestingly, he’s only walked four.
Betting Trends
Through Tuesday, the Dodgers have won nine straight games and 20 of 22 to improve to 75-31 overall. From here, they could play under-.500 the rest of the way and still end up with more than 100 wins. For Los Angeles, the eye is on the postseason now, but that doesn’t mean this team will punt the regular season.
The Dodgers are just good. They’re as balanced as you can get. Even with Clayton Kershaw on the DL, the rotation is stacked. The bullpen is tops in the sport. Meanwhile, the offense is loaded, too, with a team .797 OPS, second only to Washington in the NL.
From Cody Bellinger to Justin Turner to Corey Seager to Chris Taylor, four starters have OPS number north of .900.
Since the start of June, this team is 42-10 and on a historic run. They swept the Mets in four games during their previous series and are 17-5 against the NL East.
New York, meanwhile, have lost three straight and five of six. They’re two games under.500 since the start of July and are 10-14 against the NL West. If not for the Giants, they’d be 5-13. They’re only 25-28 at home.
Players to Watch
For Mets’ fans, the promotion of Amed Rosario has been a long time coming. He’s one of baseball’s best prospects and got his first hit out of the way in his debut with a single.
The 21-year old was raking in Triple-A Las Vegas prior to the promotion, hitting .328 with 19 steals and a .367 OBP. New York will look for Rosario to be a spark plug atop the order as he replaces Jose Reyes at short. Reyes is hitting only .226 with a .288 OBP.
The Mets figure to promote Dominic Smith soon, too, but for now he’s still swinging it in Vegas. Instead, Rosario is it for now, setting things up for Yoenis Cespedes, Jay Bruce and Michael Conforto.
On the other side, Darvish gets all the publicity form the deadline, but the acquisitions of Tony Watson and Tony Cingrani were just as important.
Los Angeles already has the sports’ best bullpen based on ERA, but the group was weak on the left-side. Now with Watson and Cingrani there’s depth on both sides with some extra support for Luis Avilan. Neither of those additions were big name moves, but both help deepen baseball’s already deepest roster.
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