After dropping seven of their last 10 games, the San Francisco Giants find themselves tied with Padres at the bottom of the NL West. It’s been a rough season for Bruce Bochy’s squad, particularly when playing on the road. They’re a game under-.500 at home, but 10-21 on the road. The Milwaukee Brewers will look to cash in on that. They’re actually a better road team, but enter the four game set much better positioned.
This series will be contested from Monday, June 5, 2017 through Thursday, June 8, 2017 at Miller Park in Milwaukee. Thursday’s game can be seen on MLB Network.
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Pitching Matchups
The Giants’ starting staff was supposed to be a strength, but has turned into a significant question with no question as big as the Giants’ series opening starter: Jeff Samardzija.
Samardzija is coming off his shortest outing of the year, going four innings. Despite a 1-7 record, he was looking to build off a very strong May where he struck out 49 and walked only one, but if his May 30 start is any indication, things may be looking down again.
He didn’t walk anyone in that start, but did give up nine hits in those four innings. The start prior to that, he went seven innings, but gave up three home runs.
Samardzija will be asked to out-duel Junior Guerra. The 32-year old out of Venezuela used a great 20-game sample last year to earn the Opening Day nod and immediately landed on the disabled list. Since coming back, he’s made two starts, throwing 11.2 innings, allowing one run on seven hits. He has walked six.
Command is on Samardzija’s side, but overall success—albeit in a small sample—supports Guerra, particularly considering the respective lineups each will face.
As the series progresses, the Giants will send out Matt Cain, Ty Blach and Johnny Cueto in that order against Chase Anderson, Jimmy Nelson and Matt Garza.
For Tuesday’s pairing, Anderson nearly no-hit the Diamondbacks in his last start and has accumulated 14 straight scoreless frames. He’s certainly turned things around after tough five start stretch. Can he continue to build off his last two starts? If he can maintain his mechanics, sure, but he’ll also have to contend with a team that’s historically owned him to a tune of an 8.55 ERA in five starts.
His counterpart hasn’t had too much success against the Brewers, either. Cain has 13 starts against Milwaukee with a 5.01 ERA, though most of that came several years back. This is a completely different team.
Four of Cain’s last five starts have been pretty good. He’s coming off a three run, five inning start against a tough National’s team which was his third straight loss, but allowed two runs or fewer in three of the four games before that.
Wednesday brings up a matchup between Blach and Nelson. Blach is pitching very well, despite a low strikeout rate. He’s coming off a complete-game shutout against the Phillies. The Brewers are a much better offense and will provide a greater challenge, but Blach just may be up for the test. He has five straight quality starts.
Nelson has the livelier arm of the two throwing on Wednesday. He’s had back-to-back 10 strikeout games. In his last two games, he’s allowed one runs in 15 innings, striking out 21, walking nobody and giving up 12 hits.
Both of Wednesday’s starters are throwing really well in contrast with the teams’ Thursday’s starters who are the team’s most experienced and decorated arms in Cueto and Garza.
Garza has had a nice bounce back season, though his ability to make the start is uncertain given his collision in his last start. Cueto, on the other hand, has had a ton of experience against the Brew Crew with a ton of success, but has been an average pitcher this season.
Names to Remember
There aren’t many impactful names for the Giants at all. There’s Buster Posey and Brandon Belt and that’s basically it. Aaron Hill has some power off the bench, but is hitting .143. The team has rotated in and out a number of position players trying to find a spark, coming up short each time.
In the pen, there are a couple lesser-known names to keep an eye on.
The pen was the Giants’ downfall last year. It led to the second half collapse and, from all accounts, it seems the collapse is still going.
When the pen was an issue and the over bullpen effectiveness has been hit-or-miss, Cory Gearrin is a name to keep an eye on. All of the Giants’ relievers not named Mark Melancon struggle with command. Gearrin is no different with a 5.8 walks per nine inning ration, but he’s effectively navigated through the base runners and has a 1.66 ERA over 21.2 innings. Between he and Hunter Strickland who has a 2.29 ERA, there is some support in this pen for Melancon.
The Brewers have a few more players to keep an eye on, including Eric Sogard. The former A’s middle-infielder is in a utility role for Milwaukee, but his bat has been red-hot since coming up from Triple-A. In 60 plate appearances, he has reached base 31 times, including 14 walks. He’s batting .378 and has a couple home runs. He’s not a power hitter at all, but is swinging the bat well. He may be a key player in a pinch hitting role late.
Another key player for a late inning role is reliever. The third most valuable player on the whole team after Travis Shaw and Eric Thames, Corey Knebel has thrown 28 innings, allowing four runs and 15 hits. He is walking 5.1 batters per nine innings which is an issue, but with so few hits, he’s still boasting a solid 1.107 WHIP.
Betting Trends
The Brewers are 7-8 this year against the NL West heading into this series and will be facing the Giants for the first time.
San Francisco won the season series last year, 5-1.
Milwaukee has been an over-achiever all year, but they’re being tested right now, having lost nine of their last 14 games and will have to try and right the ship with the Cubs coming up on them in the standings.
San Francisco is a great matchup for the Brewers, particularly at home even though Milwaukee is a better team on the road.
Overall, the offense gives Milwaukee a massive advantage. They’re fifth in baseball in runs scored. The Giants are No. 28. The Giants didn’t gain any ground over the last month, ranking similarly while the Brewers’ offense has regressed.
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