It’s still early, but that excuse is starting to lose its meaning now that the calendar has flipped to May. The San Francisco Giants, however, still hope that they can turn things around, but it’s been a tough go for them and with Madison Bumgarner out for a while, they’re more than short-handed. The Los Angeles Dodgers haven’t had as strong of a start as they would’ve hoped for either, but they’re certainly the better team right now as these two rivals get set for a three game set in southern California.
This series will be contested from Monday, May 1, 2017 through Wednesday, May 3, 2017 at Dodgers Stadium in Los Angeles. The games on Monday and Thursday will both be available to be seen on the MLB Network in out-of-market regions.
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Pitching Matchups
It’s not quite as good a matchup as when Bumgarner is healthy, but Monday should still be a fun one for those you love a pitchers’ duel. The Dodgers will turn to ace Clayton Kershaw as the Giants have Johnny Cueto on the bump.
Cueto love the month of May historically, going 23-13 with a 2.80 ERA in the month. That’s good because he’s now the de facto ace with Bumgarner out and he’s trying to move on from a rather lackluster April. He did end the month 3-1 which is good, but his ERA is 5.10 and his WHIP is 1.400. He’s allowed six bombs and hasn’t been able to make his pitches. He’s just been fortunate to be the recipient of most of the Giants’ run support. He won’t get that on Monday.
Kershaw is 4-1 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.792 WHIP in five starts. His last start was against this same Giants’ team where he gave up a single run on six hits in seven innings. In his career, he’s got a 19-8 record and 1.60 ERA in 37 starts against San Francisco.
The Dodgers will feature two more southpaws the rest of the series with Alex Wood getting another start on Tuesday and Julio Urias will get the start on Wednesday. For the Giants, they’ll turn to lefty Matt Moore on Tuesday and right-hander Jeff Samardzija on Wednesday.
Moore is 1-3 with a 4.80 ERA in his five starts, but will be in a position for success against a Dodgers’ team that struggles against left-handers. He got his first start against them this season his last time out and held them to one run on two hits in seven innings, lowering his ERA by nearly a full run.
Samardzija leads the Giants in innings, but he’s been bad. He’s 0-4 with a 6.32 ERA. He looked a bit better his last time out, but that was against the Padres. His stuff is still there, but command has been elusive. He started his season off strong last year, but ended it with some struggles, those struggles have continued into 2017.
As for the Dodgers’ starters, Wood is trying to do his best to stay in the rotation after going back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen over his young Major League career in both Los Angeles and Atlanta. He’s been good as a starter and is 1-0 with a 2.29 ERA overall this year. Urias, meanwhile, pitched pretty well in his first start back this year, going 5.2 innings of one-run ball. He’s now back to stay and is the pitcher with the second best stuff in this rotation behind Kershaw. His youth just makes him a bit raw.
Betting Trends
The Giants haven’t been good regardless of venue, but the team is at least .500 at home, on the road, San Francisco is 3-9. They’re also dealing with a litany of injuries including Bumgarner, Will Smith, Brandon Crawford, Jarrett Parker and Denard Span.
As a result of these injuries, the team has Michael Morse now hitting in the middle of the order. He batted fifth on Sunday. This is a guy that was broadcasting last season.
Perhaps a more interesting addition to the team is Christian Arroyo. The 22-year old infielder has already hit a couple home runs in his week in the majors and could help provide a spark of excitement for a team that needs it.
On the Dodgers’ side of things, they too have an exciting new rookie in first baseman turned outfielder Cody Bellinger. He’s a year younger than Arroyo, but came up at the same time. He, too, has a couple blasts.
The Dodgers’ outfield is a bit of an issue for this team and Bellinger could very well be part of the solution. Another part of the solution is Yasiel Puig who delivered some promising early returns this year, but he’s seen his average and OPS plummet over the last couple weeks.
Run Differentials
While the wins and losses are the ultimate measure of a team’s success and failure, the wins and losses are a season long statistic, on a game-to-game basis, it comes down to who scores the most runs. With that, the Pythagorean record for teams does a good job looking at the runs scored and runs allowed and determining the actual record a team should have based on that.
For the Giants, their record and Pythagorean record are right in line. Heading into Sunday, the Giants had allowed 115 runs on the season while scoring just 85, leaving them a poor differential. The Dodgers, meanwhile, were just around .500, but they’d scored 107 runs to their 89 allowed indicating they’ve actually played better in April than their record shows.
While the records alone show the Dodgers to be the better team, the differentials indicate the margin may be even wider than the records suggest.
There’s no doubt that Bruce Bochy’s team has struggled. They’re dealing with injuries, but so are the Dodgers. Both teams haven’t lived up to potential just yet, but a winning streak seems closer on the horizon for Los Angeles.
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