The New York Mets have padded their record a bit over the last few games, but they still qualify as one of the NL’s biggest disappointments to this point in the season, right along the same San Francisco Giants team that they’re set to host in a three game set beginning on Monday. These two teams were the wildcard squads last year and went into the year with playoff aspirations, but both have been riddled with key injuries and find themselves struggling to stay afloat here in the season’s second month.
This series will be contested from Monday, May 8, 2017 through Wednesday, May 10, 2017 at Citi Field in New York. Monday's clash is being shown live on ESPN while the game on Wednesday can be seen nationally as well for those out of the local market on the MLB Network.
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Pitching Matchups
With Johnny Cueto pitching on Sunday, the Giants will have to try and win the series without him, instead sending Matt Moore, Jeff Samardzija and Matt Cain to the hill. That trio of Giants will be countered by Jacob deGrom, Zack Wheeler and Rafael Montero for the suddenly pitching hungry Mets.
The rotation for New York could be shaken up a bit with the three-game suspension of Matt Harvey for violating team rules. In theory, his suspension will be up on Wednesday and he could unseat Montero for that start.
Despite the mounting number of injuries and other issues plaguing the once stacked Mets’ rotation, New York still has the advantage on paper on Monday with deGrom over Moore.
deGrom is the lone man standing from the team’s vaunted top-4 and he’s been—arguably—the team’s most durable arm over the last few years. He’s put up better numbers than anybody else in the rotation not named Noah Syndergaard this year, too, going 2-1 with a 3.68 ERA though he’s posted an uncharacteristic 1.364 WHIP as he’s been more walk prone this season. Of course, he’s also done a better job with the strikeouts, recording 12 per nine innings, leading to a 3.09 FIP.
deGrom’s adversary on Monday is a pitcher who has the stuff to be a top-flight starter, but has struggled with command so profoundly he doesn’t even qualify as an adequate back-end arm at the moment.
Moore is 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.560 WHIP. He’s been incredibly hittable and while his BABIP is a bit high, he’s not exactly striking out anybody at a prolific rate and he’s also seen his walk rate jump to 3.8 per nine innings.
The now 28-year old was the top pitching prospect in the game just a handful of years ago, but due to injuries hasn’t developed as expected. He’s been a good mid-rotation arm in his career, but has just two good starts out of six this year. He has held the Dodgers to one run over seven and the Diamondbacks to one in eight, but more recently, he allowed nine runs in 3.1 innings while walking five against Los Angeles.
Moving on to Tuesday, Samardzija has been the other disappointment in this rotation though he’s pitched better of late. His 5.03 ERA is still inflated and is 0-4 record a disappointment, but he’s thrown 15 innings in his last two starts, allowing just four runs—two earned—on seven hits, one walk and 16 strikeouts.
Like Samardzija, Wheeler provides plenty of questions. The former Giant farmhand has been spotty at best this season after missing the last two. He’s 1-2 with a 4.78 ERA. His FIP and WHIP indicate he may have been a bit unlucky, however. Still, he’s yet to throw a quality start by definition and has gone more than 5.2 innings just once.
Lastly, the matchup of Montero and Cain is a particularly interesting one. The Mets’ hurler is only in the rotation out of necessity and has a 10.45 ERA in 10.1 innings split between a start and six relief appearances. If Harvey goes, he’s still a huge question with a 5.14 ERA and plenty of concerns with a strikeout rate of 5.1.
As for Cain, the former ace has been struggling for years and really only has a job due to an inflated contract, but he’s been the best pitcher for the Giants now that Madison Bumgarner is injured. That, of course, is more of a statement on the state of the rotation than Cain himself. His ERA is still high at 4.70 though it was 2.30 before his last start where he allowed nine runs in 3.1 innings. The question: is that a fluke or a regression to the mean? Before that, he had four straight games where he allowed one or fewer runs.
Offensive Comparison
The Giants called up top prospect Christian Arroyo a couple weeks ago and he’s looked very good so far for a 21-year old.
The infielder has played at both short and third and while his average is just .250 and his OBP is just .280, he’s provided a bit of pop in a power-light lineup. In fact, his three home runs already ranks second on the team, only one behind Brandon Belt who has played in more than twice as many games with nearly three times as many at bats.
Power was never the focus of the Giants’ offense over the last decade, but the team has been able to manufacture runs to support a very good pitching staff. Now, the pitching staff is struggling, both in the rotation and the pen, and the offense is riddled with injuries to key players like Brandon Crawford and Denard Span.
San Francisco has been rotating players around to try and find the right mix. Drew Stubbs, Conor Gillaspie, Gorky Hernandez, Mike Morse and Chris Marrero have all faltered and aside from Buster Posey, Belt and Joe Panik, the rest of roster has produced below average production based on OPS+.
The Mets are also riddled with injuries and are without top slugger Yoenis Cespedes. The left-fielder is, for all intents and purposes, the heartbeat of this offense. He carried the team in the World Series a couple years ago, but he’s not the only one missing. Of course, David Wright is perpetually out while Lucas Duda and Travis d’Arnaud both eat away at much of the power on this team.
Fortunately, Jay Bruce and Michael Conforto are both hitting well and, for this matchup, that’s enough to keep pace with the Posey/Belt duo. The Mets are also finally getting something out of Jose Reyes who has hit safely in 10 of 11 games. He’s the key to the offense in this series. If he can get the offense going and create some havoc, the Mets have the advantage.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Giants’ bullpen is what led to their collapse last year. They were the best team in the sport at the All-Star break, but ended up barely squeezing out a playoff spot.
The pen was helped by the signing of Mark Melancon. Aside from his debut, he’s been good with six saves and a 2.53 ERA, but the unit as a whole is still below average overall, though its 4.58 ERA is right in line with the Mets’ 4.55.
The Giants have a few struggling performers, but Melancon, Hunter Strickland, Cory Gearrin and Derek Law give Bruce Bochy some quality depth.
Jeurys Familia certainly helps the Mets’ pen and he’s been good since coming off his suspension. Addison Reed is a serviceable set up guy while Hansel Robles and Jerry Blevins have been good, but the middle innings can be rough with Josh Smoker and Fernando Salas having inflated numbers.
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