The San Francisco Giants are fighting to remain relevant as the season presses on. They’re likely sellers at the trade deadline while the Colorado Rockies will be looking to buy in what is a role reversal for these two teams. They’ll meet for their third series of the year this weekend. The Rockies have taken six of their first seven meetings, outscoring the Giants 40-20 in those seven games.
This series will be contested from Thursday, June 15, 2017 through Sunday, June 18, 2017 at Coors Field in Denver.
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Pitching Matchups
Jeff Hoffman will kick off the Rockies’ parade of rookies on Thursday during the four game series against the Giants.
Hoffman has only made five appearances—and four starts—with the Rockies, but he’s been outstanding in his limited big league action. The 24-year old right-hander was a key piece to the Troy Tulowitzki trade and we can see why.
After a rough cup of coffee last year, Hoffman pitched well in the Pacific Coast League this year at Albuquerque and earned another chance with Colorado. So far, he’s delivered.
In 27 innings, Hoffman is 4-0 with a 2.33 ERA and 0.741 WHIP. He’s walked just three batters while striking out 34 for an 11.33 strikeout to walk ratio. He has allowed three homers, but so far as done well dealing with the Coors Field factor though his last three starts have come on the road. We’ll see just how well he can handle the hitter friendly park.
His counterpart will likely give him some leeway. Matt Moore takes the mound for the Giants and is 0-4 with a 7.94 ERA on the road. Overall, he’s 2-7 with a 5.28 ERA. He’s allowed eight runs in his last 10 innings along with 13 hits and five walks. He’s only struck out four.
As the series progresses, the Rockies will turn to Antonio Senzatela and Kyle Freeland on Friday and Saturday respectively. The two are a combined 15-6 though they seem have been a bit lucky according to their peripherals. Neither starter is a big strikeout threat like Hoffman. Senzatela has a 3.84 ERA, but his FIP is 4.45 and he’s been hit hard in his last three games.
The 22-year old has allowed 11 runs in his last three games, totaling 15.1 innings. He lasted just four frames in his last start as the Cubs got to him early. This year against the Giants, he’s tossed 14 innings, allowing only four runs on 11 hits.
As for Freeland, he’s 7-4 with a 3.57 ERA, but his FIP is worse than Senzatela’s as he’s been more prone to giving up the free pass.
He, too, is coming off a less than stellar outing, but did last 5.2 innings, allowing four runs to Pittsburgh. Before that, he had three straight quality starts.
The Giants are expected to counter with Jeff Samardzija on Friday and Matt Cain on Saturday.
Samardzija is just 2-8 with a 4.31 ERA, but his WHIP is 1.121 and his FIP is 3.16. Unlike Senzatela’s, he’s arguably pitched better than his record and ERA would suggest. He’s been really good lately. His 8.33 strikeout to walk ratio has really climbed over his last eight games. He leads the league in that category, along with leading in losses.
Over those eight games, Samardzija has walked just two batters, striking out 65. He’s also delivered five quality starts in his last six outings and has allowed more than three runs once in his last nine games. He’s throwing well.
As for Cain, the veteran right-hander hasn’t been anything more than a No.5 starter, if that, for years. He’s 3-5 with a 5.22 ERA this year and has a 1.652 WHIP, giving up 11 hits per nine innings. He’s been incredibly hittable, but has only allowed nine homers despite some hard hit balls.
This series will wrap up on Sunday with a matchup of Ty Blach and Tyler Chatwood on the bump.
Blach is the Giants’ most reliable starter despite starting out in the bullpen. He’s 4-4 with a 4.24 ERA which passes for a strong season in the San Francisco rotation. He’s been great at avoiding hard contact and walks, but has done much of it with smoke and mirrors, striking out only 30 batters in 70 innings
Chatwood is considered a veteran in the Rockies’ rotation. He’s made 102 career starts and has a 4.19 ERA. This year, he’s pitching to a 4.16 ERA, but given he’s a Rockies’ pitcher with Coors as his home park, that’s good enough for a 121 ERA+. That’s not bad for the weakest pitcher statistically in a four game series.
Chatwood does struggle with control. He leads the NL in walks so that’s something to watch, but if he’s able to find the strike zone at a reasonable rate, he can be a good starter. He has a nine innings shutout of the Giants back in April to prove it. He’s also allowed just three runs in 20 innings so far in June.
Betting Trends
The Rockies have been the story of the NL for a while now. Their early season success was built largely on pitching and the thought was, Coors Field—and a ton of innings—would weigh on the young arms and Colorado would fade.
Ultimately, that’s still possible, but for now, the Rockies are getting better and better.
The offense was slower to come around. Mark Reynolds carried the team early, but the team that always ranked near the top in runs was more in the middle of the pack.
Now, the Rockies are clicking on all cylinders. Heading into Wednesday, the Rockies ranked third in baseball and second in the NL in team ERA in June at 3.38. They’re also second in the NL in runs scored this month, plating 70 and doing so with just 12 homers. Instead of driving the ball out of a hitter friendly park, they’re batting .288 as a team and scoring in a variety of different ways.
As for the Giants, their offense is going a bit better than it was earlier. They rank No. 17 in baseball in runs in June, but it’s still just Buster Posey and Brandon Belt as the major threats.
The pitching holds the same exact rank, allowing nearly a run and a half more per game than the Rockies.
Fielding a Winner
Defense is an oft-overlooked aspect of the game that is critical in determining wins and losses, particularly in close games.
Defense is a huge reason why the Rockies have been such a surprising team and why the pitching staff is doing as well as it is.
Most of the Rockies young studs have a FIP higher than their ERA and that’s no coincidence.
Colorado’s defense can pick it, starting with Nolan Arenado at third. Perhaps the best defender in the sport, Arenado is a highlight reel game in and game out. He’s not alone. The entire team can pick it and the outfield has enough speed to run the ball down in the gaps. That huge in a ballpark like Coors where the ball flies and the dimensions, despite the homers, are large.
The Giants don’t have a bad defense. They’re especially solid behind the plate and up the middle, but they don’t as many answers. The Rockies have made just 27 errors in 67 games. The Giants have committed seven more miscues.
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