Both teams entered the season with high expectations, but it’s the Red Sox who have lived up to them so far. Houston has failed to regain its magic from last season and will look to climb out of the NL West cellar.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
A year ago it didn’t seem to matter where the Red Sox were. They couldn’t hit, home or away. Despite playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, they couldn’t put it to good use until well after the All-Star break. This year, they’re rediscovering the home field advantage.
The Sox rank at the top of the AL in a host of categories: doubles, slugging percentage, total bases, on-base percentage, and, most importantly, runs scored. The continued growth of their young hitters, plus the rejuvenated stick of David Ortiz have been huge in the offensive onslaught. The BoSox are No. 1 in the AL at home in all the above stat categories. Boston pounded Oakland 13-5 on Tuesday for their fifth consecutive home win and the Sox scored 47 runs over a 5-2 home stretch, an average of almost nine runs per game.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Collin McHugh (4-3, 5.50 ERA) held the Mariners to one run over seven innings Sunday in Houston’s 5-1 win. He surrendered a solo homer to Robinson Cano for the only blemish on his line. McHugh was otherwise stellar, yielding only five hits and one walk while fanning five.
Since giving up five earned runs in one-third of an inning in his Apr. 6 season debut at Yankee Stadium, McHugh has gone 4-2 with a 4.24 ERA in six starts, including 3-0 with a 3.57 ERA in his past three outings. He’s 1-1 with 3.18 ERA across 11.1 innings in two career starts at Fenway Park.
Clay Buchholz (2-3, 5.90 ERA) can thank Boston’s offense for picking up a win in his last start. He labored a bit against the A’s on Monday, giving up four runs while throwing 87 pitches in five innings. But the Sox put up a six-spot in the bottom of the fourth. To that point, Buchholz wasn’t getting his fastball over for strikes and allowed runs in each of the first three innings.
Despite the win, Buchholz saw his ERA rise to 5.90, and he’s not out of the woods yet. He needs to be better to remain in the rotation with Eduardo Rodriguez and Joe Kelly getting close to returning. The righty is 1-2 with a 5.48 ERA in four starts at Fenway this season.
LIVE BETTING
In the final two months of last season, the Red Sox received significant contributions from Jackie Bradley Jr., who enjoyed an August most players can only dream about with a slash line of .354/.429/.734. In the first six weeks of 2016, Bradley continues to rake. Bradley is second on the Sox in both slugging and RBIs – and he’s done it from the bottom of the order, giving Boston run production from top to bottom while regularly helping to turn the lineup over.
Bradley leads the AL in triples and hit a grand slam for his fourth homer of the season on Monday. He’s shaved his strikeout rate down another few percentage points to make his success that much more believable.
QUICK PICK
This isn’t the same Red Sox team that looked so lifeless for the first four months of last season. But in a way, it is. The Sox have been far more proficient offensively in 2016, yet they added no new everyday position players during the offseason. They didn’t change their hitting coaches either. So, what’s the difference? How about David Ortiz for one. He leads the Sox in homers, RBIs and slugging percentage while anchoring his customary cleanup spot.
As Big Papi rolls, so does the Sox offense. They’ll need to be clicking with Buchholz on the bump and face an inconsistent McHugh, who has looked better lately. But the Sox are raking up and down the lineup. There are no easy outs and they’re doing the little things also. That spells trouble for McHugh and the visitors.
MLB Odds: Boston 7, Houston 5
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