MLB Odds - Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox Game Preview

BookMaker is the only online sportsbook where you can get the earliest MLB moneylines, runlines, totals and props. If you want to wager on baseball odds like the pros do, you need to join BookMaker today! The ballgame between the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox will take place Sunday, October 1, 2017, at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. The matchup will be televised regionally on AT&T SportsNet and NESN.

Baring a surprising twist, the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox will close out the regular season on Sunday and then prepare to face off again in the ALDS starting Thursday. This will be a fun matchup as both teams try to end the season with momentum, but also shy away from revealing too much to their likely ALDS series opponents.

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ODDS ANALYSIS

The Red Sox are a team with a few big question marks hanging over its head heading into the final days of the 2017 regular season.

Coming off a series loss to the Blue Jays, Boston will try and get back on track to carry momentum into October. The win to avoid the series sweep on Wednesday helped put clinching the AL East closer, but didn’t do much to assuage the larger concerns. Those concerns could manifest in a series against Houston, a team battling for the best record in the AL.

Amongst the questions for Boston is a lineup that’s dealing with injury concerns around Mookie Betts and Eduardo Nunez. Healthy issues linger for Dustin Pedroia, too.

Boston’s lineup isn’t a powerhouse when healthy either. Betts isn’t having nearly the same year as he did in 2016 while the team is filled with primarily average to slightly better hitters based on their 2017 numbers.

The Sox do rank No. 10 in baseball in runs scored, but have plated 100 fewer than the Astros who top the charts.

The biggest area of difference between these two teams is in the power department. The Astros rank third in baseball with 233 homers. They have guys who can hit the ball out up and down the order. Boston has hit only 166 this year, fewest in the AL.

Houston has also produced the higher average, better OBP and most doubles. They top Boston in most other major categories, too.

Overall, the Astros are also cruising right now in September with nearly everything clicking into place at the right time.

PROBABLE PITCHERS

For the moment, Chris Sale is slated to make the start on Sunday. This will be a brush up start for him so he won’t be going deep in the game. He’ll pitch enough to allow him to be ready to go for Thursday’s ALDS opener.

In the unlikely event that the Sox haven’t wrapped up the AL East by Sunday, Sale’s status in the game could be in the air as he’d be the choice for Boston in a Wild Card or division tie-breaking contest.

Provided Sale isn’t scratched, he’s one of the league’s best pitchers, but he’s not clicking on all cylinders right now. The southpaw was the talk of baseball earlier in the year and is 17-8 with a 2.90 ERA and 0.970 WHIP. He’ll finish in the top two in the AL Cy Young Award voting. Despite that, he’s allowed nine homers in his last five games, including four in his last outing. Toronto teed off on him.

Historically, Sale doesn’t finish strong. His second half ERA is half a run higher than his first half mark for his career and September is the worst month of his career historically. August is where he’s posted his second worst month ERA since coming into the league.

So, while September Sale isn’t quite the same guy as we saw in April, he’s still good. He’s pitched to a 3.78 career ERA in the month. He’s 2-2 with a 3.72 ERA this year. Over his career, he’s also destroyed the Astros. In six career starts against them, Sale is 5-1 with a 1.31 ERA and 0.708 WHIP in 48 innings.

While the Sox’s starting situation in this game is variable, the Astros haven’t even announced their projected starter, it figures to be Collin McHugh. It would be his turn provided Houston sticks to their six-man rotation.

McHugh has pitched well since coming off the DL. He’s 4-2 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.326 WHIP in 57.1 innings.

The right-hander has been a solid—though unspectacular—pitcher over the course of his career. His numbers are dwarfed in comparison to Sale’s, but he’ll be given a longer leash and more pitches. If he makes the postseason rotation, he won’t start until the weekend at the earliest.

Still, how deep can he go even with a higher pitch count? He threw 112 pitches and went just five innings in his last start.

LIVE BETTING

While Houston is winning big in September, the power hasn’t been as strong as it was earlier in the year. George Springer leads the team in the month with five homers.

Despite the power shortage, the team is still putting runs on the board. Marwin Gonzalez continues to serve as a key role player. He’s batting .356 on the month with a .413 OBP. Jose Altuve is having a slow month by his standards, but he’s still hitting .292 and has an OBP of .407.

To keep his hitters fresh, A.J. Hinch is spreading around the starts. He has the depth on the roster to do that and it’s paying off. We could see many players in the season’s final game.

On the other side, the Sox have leaned on the youngster Rafael Devers since his promotion. He’s still chugging along though his numbers have leveled off a bit in September.

Otherwise, there are several struggling players like Jackie Bradley Jr., Mitch Moreland, Hanley Ramirez and Sandy Leon all hitting at or below the Mendoza Line.

QUICK PICK

Chris Sale is a dominant pitcher and the Red Sox are a tough team to beat at Fenway Park, but Sale won’t go deep in the game and the Sox bullpen leading into Craig Kimbrel hasn’t been the most certain thing.

Carson Smith has looked good in limited chances and Addison Reed’s numbers are solid, but Smith is still only 6.2 innings off a major injury and Reed has been a bit prone to the longball.

On the other side, the Astros are the better offensive club and Sale has been a bit homer happy.

Look for the Astros to get a bomb or two off Sale early and add a couple runs against the pen while holding off Boston’s offense with some solid work out of their own bullpen.

MLB Odds: Astros 5, Red Sox 4

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