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While the nation is busy trick-or-treating, the Astros and Dodgers will be getting ready for an important Game 6 in the World Series. Halloween could bring a frightful end to the season for the Los Angeles Dodgers with a loss. They’ll need to hope leaving Texas will quiet the Houston Astros’ red-hot bats and that the magic of Justin Verlander cannot continue. They’ll also need to avoid the extra innings.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Coming into the series, most experts were picking the Dodgers to win. The Astros offense was their best weapon, but it was lackluster in the ALCS. Meanwhile, the Dodgers proved in a couple quick series that it can hit with anyone.
The real difference between these two teams a week ago seemed simple: the Dodgers’ bullpen was in the midst of a scoreless streak while the Astros’ pen was unreliable to the point A.J. Hinch was using starters for four innings in relief to avoid the likes of Chris Devenski and Ken Giles.
The former strength of the Dodgers is gone. Los Angeles’ bullpen has been roughed by Houston hitters on a couple occasions. And, in Game 5, the pen looked tired. Brandon Morrow allowed four runs without getting an out. Kenta Maeda’s stuff was flat after a long outing two games prior. Houston even beat Kenley Jansen, again.
Los Angeles will almost certainly have to go back to the well on Tuesday. The pen will have a day of rest as the teams travel, but is that enough?
The only saving grace for the Dodgers is the Houston pen has been at least as bad as advertised. We’ve had many thrilling, back-and-forth games this World Series as a direct result of the Dodgers’ exhaustion in relief and the Astros’ futility.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
The most important player in this game is Astros’ starter Justin Verlander. The right-hander has been as big a reason as any that Houston is here in Game 6 of the World Series. Sure, Verlander has only been an Astro for two months, but his Game 6 performance in the ALCS helped lift Houston over the Yankees. Can he do it again in the World Series?
Coming into the Fall Classic, Verlander had pitched in nine games for the Astros, going 9-0. In Game 2 of the World Series, Verlander was not involved in the decision as the game extended to 11-innings with the offense coming around against the Dodgers’ bullpen.
Nevertheless, Verlander kept Houston in the game and pitched rather well. Verlander did allowed three runs in six innings, but he gave up only two hits. Unfortunately, both were home runs.
Overall, Verlander looks like the Cy Young and MVP winner of old. He’s lights out. After going 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA in September, he managed to remain as dominant in October, going 4-0 with a 2.05 ERA and .183 opponent batting average while striking 29 in 30.2 innings.
Verlander carried the Astros in the ALCS and needs to do so again to continue their season on Tuesday. If there’s ever a pitcher to count on, it’s Verlander.
On the other side of this matchup, the Dodgers will send Rich Hill to the mound in a Game 2 rematch.
Game 2 was the worst start for Verlander in his Astros’ career, but was still a quality start. Hill lasted only four innings in his start, coming out after 60-pitches and only one run allowed.
Hill struck out seven Astros in his four innings, but did allow several base runners. Still, he looked in control of the game, but Dave Roberts trusted his numbers and pulled the lefty. How will that decision impact Hill in Game 2? Will he be more motivated or less? What happens when he gets through the order a couple times on Tuesday?
In the end, Verlander needs to be better than Hill and likely will be, but how much better? Hill went 12-8 in the regular season with a 3.32 ERA. He threw nine no-hit innings against the Pirates at one point and has one of the most devastating curveball in the game. He, however, has just 13 innings pitched in three postseason games due to Roberts’ short leash.
LIVE BETTING
On Sunday, the Dodgers kept scoring and the Astros kept coming back. This Houston team has scored on Kershaw on Kenley Jansen and on everyone else Dave Roberts has asked to take the ball.
Houston out slugged the world in 2017. They were far and away the best offense, but even they have been playing over their own heads with the constant fireworks.
The Astros are crushing the ball all over the yard. George Springer is seeing the ball well. Jose Altuve is showing why he should be the AL MVP. And Carlos Correa is crushing.
The Dodgers’ bats have been great, too. After a cold start to the series—much like Springer—Cody Bellinger has come back to life. He’s got a long swing and is prone to some slumps as a result, but when he’s on, he’s as good as anyone. If not for the Astros’ win in Game 5, he’d be part of a headlining story around the dozen runs scored by the Dodgers.
QUICK PICK
Verlander gets the nod over Hill on the mound. We’ve seen both offenses come to life in this series. The Dodgers have the better bullpen, but they’ve also got the more exhausted bullpen. In the World Series, especially this late in the series, all hands are on deck, but L.A. must have a few arms off-limits of Tuesday.
Assuming Verlander doesn’t get rocked like Kershaw and Keuchel on Sunday night, he gives Houston a considerable advantage. The Dodgers are at home and the Astros haven’t been great away from Minute Maid in the postseason, but they were better on the road than at home in the regular season and have already shown they can get a win at Dodger Stadium earlier in the series.
Look for the Astros to get the win and capture its first ever World Series title.
MLB Odds: Astros 6, Dodgers 4
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