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The Houston Astros will kick off their second interleague series of the year on Monday against the Miami Marlins, their first on the road. This’ll be the first time this year the Astros pitchers will have to hit which should be a welcome sight for Miami given Houston’s stacked lineup top-to-bottom.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Marlins infield is depleted right now with both Adeiny Hechavarria and Martin Prado on the shelf. That’s opened the door for a few different players including Derek Dietrich who did a good job filling in for Dee Gordon last season, but has been slow coming around at the plate this year.
A few others are getting looks now, too, with J.T. Riddle and Steve Lombardozzi making appearances with the big club.
With or without Hech and Prado, this infield hasn’t been the strength, it’s the outfield. Christian Yelich’s bat has started to heat up and now the entire starting outfield is producing at an above average level with Marcell Ozuna and Giancarlo Stanton both providing nearly all of the team’s pop.
The Astros are a very, very deep offensive club. Who on this team cannot hit? Even the bench roles are providing great impact and that’s great for keeping the team fresh.
Alex Bregman may be the weakest link, but he’s one of the best young players in the game and is still getting on base at a .346 clip.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Both starters in this game are coming off Quality Starts with Joe Musgrove coming into play having held Atlanta to two runs in six innings and Dan Straily taking the hill after going seven innings, giving up just one.
Despite that strong outing by Straily, he is just 0-2 in his last three games with a 4.15 ERA. Musgrove is 1-2 himself with a 3.86 ERA. Both have been pretty good in that time, but not quite good enough.
The 24-year old Musgrove burst onto the season last year and was very good early, but ended up 4-4 with a 4.06 ERA. He’s had to take some bumps in 2017 and is 2-3 with a 5.02 ERA. He’s pitched just more than half as many innings as he did all of last year and has allowed eight homers. He gave up nine all of 2016.
Musgrove’s last start was encouraging and it was his second quality start in three games, but it was also his second quality start on the year. He’s pitched well against Atlanta and Oakland, but Seattle, Tampa Bay and even Texas have done their damage.
This will be Musgrove’s first start of his career against Miami and no current Marlin batters have ever faced him at the big league level.
As for Straily, he’s been well traveled and has faced Altuve, Beltran, Gonzalez and Springer though those four are just 4-for-19 combined without a homer and with just one RBI and six strikeouts for a .211 average.
Straily is 1-3 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.079 WHIP. He’s been rather unhittable with a league leading 5.4 hits allowed per nine. That number won’t last and he’ll need to lower his walk rate as a result. He’s walked 18 in 38 innings.
Straily lead the league in homers allowed last year with 31 and has given up five this year, a slightly better rate.
While Straily’s numbers don’t show someone who has dominated and his win-loss record is discouraging, he’s been very good at home. He’s 1-1 with a 2.38 ERA in four home starts and just 0-2 with a 6.46 ERA in three on the road.
LIVE BETTING
The Marlins stocked their bullpen to help relieve the stress on their rotation, but in turn, the pen has pitched a lot and are already looking rather tired.
The Fish have just two of their starting five on the active roster and have six pitchers with at least 14 innings with most of their innings coming out of the pen.
Jose Urena was one of the best answers out of the pen, but he’s now in the rotation. A.J. Ramos is a solid closer, but he’s only got three saves as the team cannot get to him with the lead. He’s also got two losses as does David Phelps and Brad Ziegler, both key bullpen members with ERAs of 4.50 or above.
In fact, even Kyle Barraclough is looking tired these days.
QUICK PICK
Yes, the Marlins are at home and, yes, Straily has pitched well at home, but we’re dealing with small sample sizes here.
The Astros are the far superior team. The Marlins may have the edge in the outfield, but the Houston lineup is deeper, the bullpen is better and the defense is nearly as good—and maybe better now, given the injuries.
Houston has won eight out of ten games and Marlins have lost 12 of 15. Added to all of that, the Marlins were 6-14 in interleague play last year and are 2-5 in interleague play this year.
MLB Odds: Astros 7, Marlins 3
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