
The AL West went through the state of Texas last season and the Rangers and Astros are hoping it happens once again. This time, though, the Astros want to be the team that comes out on top. The teams wrap up their first series of the season on Thursday.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The battle for the AL West crown last year was between the Lone Star State rivals with Texas edging out the Astros by two games. The race is expected to be competitive again this season after both clubs made the playoffs in 2015, but neither has started the season the way they would’ve liked.
The Astros started slowly this year and didn’t win a series until taking two of three from Detroit over the weekend. They didn’t catch fire until mid-April in 2015, though, following a 4-6 start. Houston was the favorite in 12 of their first 13 games and has cost their bettors a lot of dough with a sluggish start. The Astros are one of the least profitable teams down 4.77 units on the year.
Texas won the final seven home meetings with Houston last season and took 13 of 19 overall to win the division title by two games.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
After walking 10 batters in 12.2 innings in his first two starts, Dallas Keuchel (2-1, 2.18 ERA) tossed a gem in a 1-0 win over Detroit on Friday. The lefty allowed five hits and a walk in 8.0 scoreless frames and was effective against one of the most dangerous lineups in the league. He threw 72 of his 108 pitches for strikes.
Keuchel started five games against the Rangers last season going 2-1 with a 3.48 ERA. He was rocked for nine runs and 11 hits in 4.2 innings in his last start in Arlington on Sept. 16, a 14-3 loss.
Prior to his season-opening start on Apr. 8, A.J. Griffin (1-0, 3.27 ERA) hadn’t pitched in the majors since 2013, limited by elbow and shoulder injuries. He was effective in his last outing, yielding two runs – one earned – on three hits over 5.0 innings in a no-decision to the Mariners. He walked four in that game and has issued six free passes over his 11.0 innings.
Griffin is 3-0 with a 4.88 ERA in four career starts against the Astros, but he’s facing them for the first time since July 24, 2013.
LIVE BETTING
The early season struggles of Astros reliever Ken Giles are significant. The centerpiece of a seven-player trade with Philadelphia during the offseason, Giles surrendered his third home run in his first four appearances last week to the Royals. Putting that into context, Giles surrendered three homers over his previous 113 games and 115.2 innings with the Phillies.
The Astros paid dearly for Giles giving up three prized pitching prospects, and he’s struggled since the acquisition. He failed to win the closers job during spring training and has been hammered with his new team. His first outing with Houston included Yankees shortstop Didi Gregorius greeting him with a solo home run. Despite his issues, Giles will continue to work high-leverage innings for the Astros.
QUICK PICK
Keuchel looked like the Cy Young Award winner from last season in his previous outing when he silenced a good hitting club in Detroit. Keuchel has great command of his pitches, so the 10 bases on balls allowed over his first two starts was a bit alarming and didn’t help his overall numbers, but that all changed against the Tigers.
The reigning Cy Young winner was brilliant in four of his five starts against the Rangers last MLB season. In those games he allowed just 15 hits and struck out 34 in 29.0 innings for a 1.24 ERA. The other start was a clunker. He gave up nine earned and 11 hits in just 4.2 innings and his splits were affected. That awful outing is the exception and not the norm for Keuchel and he will again dominate the Rangers.
MLB Odds: Houston 6, Texas 2
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