After an All-Star bid last season and some postseason heroics in the rotation and out of the pen, Lance McCullers Jr. enters the 2018 season as the Houston Astros’ No.3 starter, getting the nod on Saturday against the Texas Rangers. Texas hasn’t officially tabbed the next one off the starter carrousel after their first two starters, but it figures to be Matt Moore who desperately needs a good outing to put his horrible 2017 season behind him. In any case, the interdivisional battle between these in-state rivals continues Saturday.
First pitch for the game between the Astros and Rangers is scheduled for Saturday, March 31, 2018, at 4:05 p.m. ET at Globe Life Park. The matchup will be shown on FS1.
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Odds Analysis
Simply put, the Astros are a better team. Texas had a .368 winning percentage against the Astros last year as the pitching staff couldn’t hold down the Houston offense. Texas allowed Houston to score 118 runs over 19 games, the most by any team against the Rangers.
Meanwhile in 2017, Houston’s offense was often impacted by injuries. While Yulieski Gurriel is sidelined, the rest of the roster goes into the season healthy. That means a starting lineup of George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Marwin Gonzalez and more. That roster should tear through the back-end of the Rangers rotation and a patchwork bullpen.
Last year, the Astros scored nearly 100 more runs than the Rangers. They’re poised to be even better than that in 2018, bringing back all 10 players with at least 250 plate appearances and an OPS+ of at least 109.
This Houston offense has power, speed, average, on-base. It has everything. The same cannot be said for the Rangers who scored their share of runs in 2017, but did so with power and little average. This is a team loaded with swing and miss. They can be beat by good pitching and the Astros have a good pitcher on the mound on Saturday.
Probable Pitchers
Lance McCullers, as previously noted, was an All-Star last year. He was bitten by the injury bug in the second half and saw his season end with an inflated 4.25 ERA, but he’s a much better pitcher than that number indicates.
The young right-hander had a 3.10 FIP in his 118.2 regular season innings and pitched well against some of the game’s best offenses—including ones better than the Rangers.
McCullers has the stuff to exploit the big swinging Rangers’ lineup. He’s notched 367 strikeouts in 325.1 career innings, that’s a 10 K/9 rate. He’s also got a big breaking ball to induce weak contact on the ground, keeping the ball out of the air.
Despite excellent stuff, however, the Rangers have gotten to him over his career. He’s made five starts against Texas and is 0-3 with a 6.26 ERA and 11 walks in 23 innings. In his last start on the road against the Rangers, he lasted just 4.1 innings so while he’s got the stuff to top Texas, he’s yet to demonstrate the ability to beat them, particularly at Globe Life Park.
The Rangers haven’t officially announced their rotation order, but Matt Moore is the expected starter for Game 3 of this series.
Moore was one of the game’s top prospects coming up in the Rays’ system and was strong in his first couple seasons, even finishing up ninth in Cy Young voting in an All-Star 2013 campaign. After that, injury got to Moore and he hasn’t been the same since.
The 2017 season was a particularly bad one for the now-28-year old southpaw. Pitching for the Giants, Moore lost a league leading 15-games, going 6-15 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.532 WHIP. His walks were in check compared to his pre-injury numbers, but his strikeouts have dropped and hard contact against him has gone way up.
The Rangers are gambling on the stuff coming back, but he’s several years removed from surgery and that’s yet to really happen.
Moore was a below replacement level pitcher last year that had a 7.22 ERA away from the pitchers’ haven of AT&T Park. He now calls the hitter friendly Globe Life Park home. While Moore did pitch better in the second half than he did in the first half in 2017, his numbers tailed off again in September. Meanwhile, a rocky Spring Training performance doesn’t inspire confidence of a turn-around.
Live Betting
The Astros should find success against Moore, though they have not to this point. Cumulatively, the Astros are 8-for-39 against Moore in his career, including an 0-for-5 for Marwin Gonzalez who has struck out four times.
Altuve and Brian McCann have both homered against Moore in the past and the team will find ways to get on the scoreboard and give McCullers a lead. From there, it’s on the bullpen to protect that lead.
While there are some concerns in the back of the Astros bullpen against elite teams, the pen should be deep enough to close out this game. Ken Giles pitched well in the regular season last year and is much more rested then when we saw him giving up leads last October. Brad Peacock and Collin McHugh in the pen deepen the unit as do newly acquired Joe Smith and Hector Rondon. There are plenty of options.
The Texas bullpen could be good, too, but there are still too many questions. Alex Claudio, Matt Bush and Keone Kela could all see save situations. Those three, along with Jake Diekman, are the focus of this pen. The depth isn’t there like it is for Houston, but those four should be plenty on Saturday unless the Rangers pen gets picked over in the first two games of this series.
MLB Pick
The Rangers bats are pretty good. They were the fifth best offense last year and save for the departure of an aging Mike Napoli, the lineup is basically the same. In fact, a healthy Adrian Beltre could make this offense even better.
Given that, look for the Rangers to scratch across a couple runs a piece against McCullers and the Houston bullpen. That, however, isn’t likely to be enough.
Moore had a lackluster spring and poor 2017. He’s a concern as is the depth of the bullpen behind him if he’s unable to go six solid frames. This Astros offense can pick apart even the best pitching staffs.
Bank on the Astros to put some early runs on the board and add-on as the game goes along.
MLB Odds: Astros 8, Rangers 4
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