Houston’s playoff hopes are sliding away while the Jays are pushing toward the top of the AL East. These two teams are on vastly different paths as they met for the first of three on Friday, but a change in momentum could be just a game away.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Toronto and Baltimore have been going back and forth atop the AL East of late. The Blue Jays are 21-10 in their last 31 games and five for their last seven even after dropping a series to Kansas City.
While things continue looking up for the Jays, the Astros are slowly watching their postseason aspirations disappear in the midst of a stretch of nine losses over 11 games.
The recent trends—along with the home field edge—put this one firmly in Toronto’s favor. Houston has also struggled mightily paying off for bettors with a -$1,177 total moneyline while Toronto continues to toe the line of profitability.
While the trends are important to evaluate a team, the matchups and personnel could have an even bigger impact.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
As the Blue Jays’ new six man rotation turns, it’s set to land on Francisco Liriano to make the start on Friday.
Liriano’s first start in a Jays’ uniform resulted in a 4-3 win over Kansas City, the team’s only win in that series against the Royals. He lasted six innings in the game, giving up three runs, two earned, on seven hits and two walks.
Excess runners on base proved to be a huge issue for Liriano while with Pittsburgh. He went 6-11 before being dealt north of the border and had a 5.46 ERA along with a 1.619 WHIP. He was walking five and a half batters per nine innings and his location in the zone wasn’t much better. He gave up an NL leading 69 walks and a staggering 19 home runs in 113 2/3 innings.
Lance McCullers has been the Astros’ ace and would be set to start Friday if not on the disabled list. While that appears to be a major setback at first glance, Joe Musgrove has had an illustrious start to his major league career and through two games has been almost unhittable. He’ll start on Friday.
Musgrove has just 11 1/3 innings under his belt, but has already struck out 14 batters while allowing only six hits, one walk and one run. That’s a 0.79 ERA and 0.618 WHIP.
In his first big league start, Musgrove threw seven strong innings, allowing one runs against Texas. In his only other major league outing, he faced the Blue Jays in relief. In that game, he struck out eight Jays hitters in four and a third innings, allowing one hit and walking one. Having dominated the opposition just a week ago, that should give the young kid plenty of confidence.
In the minor leagues this year, Musgrove spent time at both Double-A Corpus Christie and Triple-A Fresno. While in Double-A, he pitched to a 0.34 ERA in 26 1/3 innings, striking out 30. That was plenty to earn a quick promotion and he thrived in the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League with a 5-3 mark and 3.81 ERA in 10 starts, spanning 59 innings.
LIVE BETTING
The Blue Jays’ offense is good, that’s an understatement. Catcher Russell Martin is back to his form, Jose Bautista is finally healthy and Edwin Encarnacion has already driven in 94 runs and slammed 31 homers.
All that points to an offense chugging along, but since the All-Star break, the Jays have been average and are posting a sub-.700 team OPS, much like Houston.
The early season Toronto offense was carried by Michael Saunders who is hitting just .156 since the break while newly acquired Melvin Upton is hitting .139 since the trade with 16 strikeouts in 37 plate appearances.
Of course, for Houston, newly promoted Alex Bregman has struggled, too, but he has hit in three straight games now as the top prospect has begun to get his footing on the world’s biggest stage.
If he can start hitting like he’s expected to, that depends a lineup that’s already stacked up top with MVP favorite Jose Altuve along with George Spring and Carlos Correa. All three of those mentioned have an OPS of at least .800 with Altuve sitting at .989 now that he’s added power—in the form of 19 homers and 29 doubles—to his game.
QUICK PICK
The acquisition of Liriano was a mysterious one for the Jays at the deadline. There was concern that Aaron Sanchez would need to move to the bullpen for innings-related reasons, but since the deal, he’s been re-inserted into the rotation and the team is going with a six-man staff.
That may reduce the wear and tear on Sanchez some, but does it really make sense to add a player with a mid-five ERA in the NL to a team competing for the division crown in the AL East?
Houston isn’t a team big on walks and OBP so that’s helpful for Liriano, but the team does have players that can hit the homer. Look for Houston to find their offense against Liriano and ride the youngsters like Musgrove, Bregman and Correa to an upset victory on the road.
MLB Odds: Astros 5, Blue Jays 4
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