The Cleveland Indians and Boston Red Sox will matchup for a best of three series starting on Monday with both clubs involved in a tight race in their respective division. This will be the first matchup between these two teams since the Tribe knocked the Sox out of the 2016 postseason with a sweep in the Division Series.
This series will be contested from Monday, July 31, 2017 through Wednesday, August 2, 2017 at Fenway Park in Boston. The opening and closing games of this series will be broadcast nationally on ESPN while MLB Network to broadcast the middle game to those outside the local viewing markets.
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Pitching Matchups
The series kicks off with a couple replacement arms in Mike Clevinger and Doug Fister. Clevinger found his way into the Indians’ rotation largely due to the injury to Danny Salazar. Aside from Carlos Carrasco, who starts on Tuesday, and Corey Kluber, Clevinger has been the team’s most consistent arm.
The 26-year old right-hander is 5-3 with a 3.20 ERA in his 14 games, including 13 starts. He’s thrown 70.1 innings and allowed just 50 hits. While he’s been largely unhittable, he has walked 35 batters and allowed nine homers. Both of those numbers are elevated compared to his innings, leaving him with a FIP nearly a run higher than his ERA.
The righty’s issue with walks—along with a strikeout rate of 10 per nine innings—has led to a few shorter outings. Nevertheless, he does tend to keep the Tribe in the game.
As for Fister, he was picked up to help fill in for injuries to Eduardo Rodriguez and others. Now, he’s taking David Price’s spot as he finds his way back on the DL.
Fister is a veteran arm that has had a very good career, but the righty has constantly gotten by on mediocre stuff given his break and his command. The regression in his stuff has continued this year, leading to a 0-5 record and 7.46 ERA in 25.1 innings. He’s walked 17 and allowed four homers in that time while posting a 1.855 WHIP and 5.07 FIP.
Fister’s last start came on July 20 when he allowed six runs in 4.1 innings. Since then, he’s had two relief appearances, allowing two runs in 3.2 combined innings.
The Sox go from their worst arm in Game 1 to their best starter in the middle game with Chris Sale pitching. He throws opposite of Carlos Carrasco.
Sale is coming off seven scoreless innings against the Mariners, striking out 11. Hitting double digit strikeouts is the norm for the veteran southpaw. He’s already struck out 211 batters this year. His scoreless outing also marks his third straight such appearance.
Overall, Sale is 13-4 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.91 FIP. His WHIP is 0.876 and he’s striking out 12.8 per nine innings. Sale is tops in the AL in wins, ERA, innings, strikeouts, FIP, WHIP and strikeout to walk ratio at 7.81.
Sale is the favorite for the AL Cy Young Award, but he does have a good opponent on Tuesday. He’s posting a 10-4 record with a 3.58 ERA and 1.095 WHIP. He’s thrown a quality start in four of his last five games.
After a showdown of aces on Tuesday, the series wraps up with a meeting between Trevor Bauer and Rick Porcello.
Bauer remains an enigma. He’s got great stuff, but it has been a struggle getting him to throw consistently. He was great his last time out with one run allowed in eight innings against the Angels. Despite that, he’s pitching to a 5.25 ERA and 1.458 WHIP in 106.1 innings this year. He’s also allowed 11 runs in just 7.2 career innings against Boston.
As for Porcello, this is a much different year than last year, but Porcello is pitching better than he did early on. He’s still only 4-14 with a 4.55 ERA, but he does have a 3.06 ERA in five July starts though he’s 0-4 in those starts.
Porcello is 10-4 with a 3.55 ERA in 22 career starts against the Indians.
Offensive Breakdown
The youth in the Boston lineup gets most of the press, but it’s been a down year for a Red Sox team that led the world in scoring last year.
The loss of David Ortiz in the middle of the order is huge, but the Sox still have some good veterans producing despite the .243 team average in July.
The offense remains an area of concern, particularly since the break where the team is 7-9. Boston is hitting just .220 as a team since the All-Star break.
While the overall numbers are down across the board, Dustin Pedroia leads the AL in RBIs in July with 25 and has hit .337 with a .903 OPS in the month. While he’s hot, Mitch Moreland has gone ice cold with a .129 average. Xander Bogaerts is hitting just .153 for the month and even Mookie Betts is batting just .238.
Overall, the team is looking for answers. They called up top prospect Rafael Devers looking for a spark and added Eduardo Nunez from the Giants. Both have looked good in limited action.
With Boston slipping back to the pack in the east, they need the offense to step up. That’s a been a weak point and will need to take on a larger role with David Price back on the DL.
As for the Tribe, Cleveland’s outfield could us an upgrade. Lonnie Chisenhall’s injury really leaves a hole in the order. Yes, Edwin Encarnacion has looked like the bat they thought they were getting and sure, Francisco Lindor’s bat is showing signs, but there are concerns here, too.
Since the break, Cleveland is batting .276 as a team with a .806 OPS. Things are looking up offensively even with a few key batters still on the sideline.
Pitching in Relief
The Red Sox pen has good numbers, but with Joe Kelly on the DL, leading up to Craig Kimbrel is a bit of a risk.
Kimbrel’s back to being one of the games’ elite closers. He’s pitching to a 1.24 ERA in 43.2 innings and has an astronomically low 0.595 WHIP and 0.99 FIP. With only six homers and seven walks allowed, Kimbrel’s forced the opposition to string together hits to score and that’s much easier said than done against Kimbrel.
Still, before he takes the mound, guys like Matt Barnes and Heath Hembree are responsible for holding the score. The Sox pen has been okay, but they could use some extra re-enforcements. They’re looking at providing just that prior to the deadline.
On the other side, the Tribe has one of the best bullpens in recent history.
Cody Allen remains an elite closer despite a 0-5 record. Andrew Miller is still the best setup man in the game and gives Terry Francona unparalleled versatility. He can come in to a game anytime the game is on the line whether in the fifth or eighth and slam the door.
After those two, however, is where the team is deep. Most competing teams can boast a strong closer and set up reliever, but few—including Boston—can match the likes of Bryan Shaw, Nick Goody and even Dan Otero and Zach McAllister leading up to the late innings.
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