Are the Cleveland Indians finally get on track? Expected to run away with the American League, or at least the AL Central, the Tribe had trouble early, but do now sit atop the division. A three-game set against the Kansas City Royals this weekend should serve to pad their lead as the Royals are well below-.500 and are getting ready to pull the plug on what has been a fun few seasons for the low-market club.
This series will be contested from Friday, June 2, 2017 through Sunday, June 4, 2017 at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City.
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Pitching Matchups
The series opens on Friday with right-hander Josh Tomlin trying to outduel southpaw Jason Vargas.
Vargas has had an excellent season so far; Tomlin, not so much. The lefty is 6-3 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.127 WHIP in 60.1 innings. He’s the Royals best starter now that Danny Duffy is sidelined.
The 34-year old has bounced back surprisingly well from last year’s injury, but some of the magic may be wearing off. Smoke and mirrors can only last so long.
He had a 1.01 ERA through seven starts, pithing six or more scoreless innings in four of those starts. During that time, the Royals were 5-2 in his starts. In his three starts since then, KC is 1-2 and Vargas has given up 11 runs in 15.2 innings of work. That said, he did pitch better his last time out—against the Indians no less—going 5.2 innings, giving up two runs.
Not to be outdone, Tomlin pitched the following game in that series and got the win for the Indians, going a complete nine innings, allowing just a single run.
Tomlin’s overall numbers haven’t been nearly as good. His April was horrible, but he’s typically had one or two bad months a year. He’s been better in May, with three outings of one run and seven or more innings, but he’s sprinkled a couple clunkers in there, too.
Still, against the Royals this year, Tomlin has thrown 16 innings, allowing two combined runs. He’s also a strike throwing machine, for better or worse. He’s not walked a batter in three straight starts and has walked four all year. He will make you earn your way on. The problem is, sometimes, he’s in the strike zone too much and won’t make the hitter chase. Fortunately for the Tribe, he’s on the bump opposite a meandering Royal offense.
Moving along, the rest of the series features Carlos Carrasco and then Trevor Bauer toeing the rubber for the Indians with Jason Hammel and Eric Skoglund pitching for the Royals.
Carrasco has been the Tribe’s best starter. He’s yet to face Kansas City this year, but has a 3.40 ERA against them in 92.2 innings. Overall, he’s got a 2.89 ERA. His counterpart, Hammel, has an ERA more than double that at 6.18.
Hammel has been bad. He’s 1-6 with a 1.706 WHIP. He’s walking more than normal and has been incredibly hittable. Saturday’s game is basically the biggest reverse lock ever.
Sunday, on the other hand, features a couple wildcards. Trevor Bauer has a 6.00 ERA. He’s also got a winning record at 5-4. Some of that is luck. Some of that is help from the offense. And, some of that is a Jekyll and Hyde season. He can string together a quality start or give up six runs. It’s a crap shoot each time out.
For the Royals, southpaw Eric Skoglund will be making his second start of his career. He had a great showing in his debut, going 6.1 innings, allowing just two hits and one walk while holding the Tigers scoreless. That’s great, but his 4.53 Triple-A ERA this year before the call up is not.
Offensive Futility in Kansas City
The Royals are last in baseball in runs scored, last in the AL in team OPS and are batting just .231 as a team.
The lack of walks and homers have become a sort of calling card for this team, but they’ve had a knack for putting the ball in play and making things happen with their legs. That is what made this offense go during their back-to-back World Series appearances.
Now, they still lack the power. They’re still not drawing walks. On the plus side, they’re still near the bottom of the league in strike outs, too, but the balls aren’t dropping, the contact has been weak and the runs aren’t crossing the plate.
Jorge Soler was added to provide pop, replacing Kendrys Morales’ thump. He’s hitting .164. Alex Gordon and Brandon Moss are also both under the Mendoza Line. When Whit Merrifield is your best offensive player, that should tell you something.
Offensively, Cleveland has had its struggles this year. They’re in the bottom half of the league in runs scored and have gotten some slow starts from several players, but are turning the corner. They’re also an all-world lineup in comparison to Kansas City.
Shortening the Game
The bullpen was a big part of the narrative for the Royals a few years ago, but the claim to the best pen in the land shifted to Cleveland last postseason.
Andrew Miller was crucial to this team and may be the most valuable player on this team again. He’s pitched 26.1 innings with just one earned run allowed, two runs total. He’s as versatile a reliever as ever and gives Terry Francona the ability to get out of a jam at any point in the game.
When used late, he can shorten the game and bridge the gap between starter and Cody Allen who is a dominating reliver in his own right with 14 saves and 13.9 strike outs per nine innings.
It’s hard to find a vulnerable arm anywhere in the pen. The best chance for the Royals offensively in this series may come against the starting rotation, even with Carrasco starting on Saturday.
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