The Royals and Red Sox wrap up a three game weekend series on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball as Boston looks to try and keep pace with the Blue Jays atop the AL East while the Royals look to claw their way back in the wildcard discussion.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Red Sox where a team that seemed to be underperforming all year long, hanging in there, but not making a run.
Boston’s making their run now, tied atop the AL East and has won 10 of their last 12 games following another win in St. Petersburg against the Rays. The offense has always been a strength for this team and has actually been getting even better with the promotion of Andrew Benintendi to play left. The pitching is now starting to match.
Similarly, the Royals were underperforming, too. With injuries and other factors, this team fell to seven games under-.500 with a loss on August 5 and were considered all but out of playoff contention.
Since that date, the Royals have won 14 of 16 games to get back over .500 and into the wildcard hunt. Their win on Tuesday night over the Marlins, 1-0, was their ninth straight win and seventh game in their last eight that they allowed one or fewer runs. The only exception in that span was an extra inning game they won 5-4.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
The Red Sox rotation is set leading up to Sunday’s game against the Royals, but they’ve yet to announce their starter for the game.
Eduardo Rodriguez was pulled from a no-hitter due to a hamstring injury on August 16 and then scratched from Thursday’s start due to further issues. His rehab work has him on schedule to go on Sunday, though veteran Clay Buchholz could also get the start after a few good outings when thrust back into the rotation recently.
Buchholz was bad as a starter earlier this year. He’s 5-9 overall with a 5.18 ERA and 1.365 WHIP, but has a 5.63 ERA as a starter this year.
In his last three starts, however, he’s gone 16 2/3 innings, allowing just five earned runs. In his last two starts—both quality outings—he’s thrown 12 1/3 innings, allowing just two runs on 11 hits and two walks, striking out 12.
Given how Buchholz is throwing the ball of late, he may not be a bad backup plan to E-Rod who should get the ball if healthy.
The 23-year old southpaw is 2-5 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.398 WHIP. He too struggled mightily early on, but since being recalled from the minors, he has pitched well. His last start was cut short after just four innings due to his hamstring, but he had a no-hitter going against Baltimore at the time.
Since July 16, he’s started seven games and has allowed three runs or less in each of them.
Much like the Sox, the Royals have also kept quiet about who’s likely to take the ball for them on Sunday night though for them, Yordano Ventura would clearly be on schedule to pitch.
Ventura continues to perplex the Royals who see all the potential the youngster has, but have been frustrated by his demeanor and his wildness.
He’s walking 3.6 per nine innings this year and has given up 20 home runs in route to a 1.328 WHIP. Overall, he’s been okay. He’s 9-9 with a 4.27 ERA. The 25-year old flame throwing right-hander is in the midst of a streak of six straight quality starts which is encouraging has he’s lowered his ERA from 4.99 at the start of those six starts.
His last outing was arguably his best of the year, going six scoreless against the Marlins. Before that, he held Detroit to a single run in six and a third.
It’s quite possible that Ventura has finally turned the corner. Since the All-Star break, he’s pitched to a 2.65 ERA in 51 innings and is a big reason for this team’s recent turnaround.
LIVE BETTING
Even with Wade Davis on the shelf and Luke Hochevar sidelined, the Royals still hold the best bullpen ERA in all of baseball.
Right now, Kelvin Herrera has gotten the chance at most of the save opportunities while Davis has been out and he’s been as good as ever with a 1.91 ERA and 0.847 WHIP in his 56 2/3 innings.
As a unit, the pen has an impressive 3.17 ERA. Obviously, Joakim Soria has been part of that in the backend, too, but the Royals always find good arms for the later innings. This year, Brian Flynn, Peter Moylan and more recently Matt Strahm have been very, very good.
The names continue to change for the Royals, but the production remains the same.
Much like the Royals, injuries have impacted the Red Sox’s pen, but unlike Kansas City the effectiveness took a hit. The team is in the middle of the pack in the bullpen, but with Craig Kimbrel healthy and Brad Ziegler added to fill out the eighth inning, things are set in the back end.
QUICK PICK
Given the backend of the pen for both teams, this game will be won or lost in the earlier innings.
This could be a battle of two very good, young talented arms if E-Rod is good to go, but in any case, look for the team that’s able to get on the board early to get the win. Given that this game is at Fenway Park and the Red Sox’s offense is stacked from top to bottom, the smart money is on Boston—though the odds aren’t likely to pay out too much.
Nevertheless, Boston’s offense is just too good, even against a team rolling like the Royals.
Kansas City is healthy now and getting better offense, but the team still has just three batters with an OPS+ north of 95 and at least 100 plate appearances; and all three are no higher than 102.
For the Sox, they’ve got an entire lineup of above average or better hitters. Mookie Betts is making a case for the MVP, but he’s not even the best hitter on his team with David Ortiz posting a 1.045 OPS. Meanwhile, Jackie Bradley Jr. has hit 21 home runs and has a .355 OBP while Xander Bogaerts and Dustin Pedroia are each getting on base more than 36-percent of the time.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 8, Royals 5
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