A big series is set to pick back up Saturday night in Motown where the home based Detroit Tigers will look to put a little space between themselves and the Kansas City Royals in both the Wild Card and divisional races.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Kansas City was one of the bigger moneymakers in all of baseball a short season ago. After making their betting backers $1944 in the regular season, they went on to make $765 more in the playoffs en route to winning the World Series. Ned Yost’s squad is one of only 12 teams to have made their wagering supporters money over the course of the first half of the season ($374), but it just feels much different this time around. One of the keys to KC’s success last season was their ability to win on the road (44-37, $765). This season, the Royals sit 14 games under .500 away from Kauffman Stadium (-$1227).
The Tigers were rolling at the end of June through early July sweeping both the Marlins and Rays. But then their nemesis – the Cleveland Indians – served them up a fat piece of humble pie by taking two of three at Progressive Field. That series defeat was followed up by an even more sobering one after Toronto nearly busted out the brooms in taking three of four at the Rogers Centre. With that, Brad Ausmus’s squad entered the break 46-43 overall and up a cool $707 for their wagering supporters. If the Tigers are to catch the Tribe and withstand the Royals in the AL Central standings, it must start doing a much better job at home where it’s played .589 ball to date.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
With only Ian Kennedy sporting an ERA less than 4.00 in the rotation, the Royals sorely needed someone to step up and catch fire. That someone has no doubt been Danny Duffy who showed promise within the starting rotation a couple times the last few seasons, but was never able to see it all the way through. Since being inserted into the starting rotation in the middle of May, the southpaw has gone 3-1 with a 3.09 ERA. He went into the break in a solid groove in tossing three quality efforts and reaching the 8th inning twice. He owns a 3.24 ERA and .207 batting average against through 75 career innings thrown at the Tigers.
Unfortunately for the Tigers, they possess one of the worst pitching staffs in the game making every run their dominating offense puts on the board important. Detroit’s starting staff has managed to put forth a grand total of just 34 quality starts – good for the No. 28 ranking. On top of that, the bullpen owns a wretched 4.53 ERA (No. 26). It’s so bad that mike Pelfrey continues to hold down a spot in the starting rotation even though he’s 2-8 with a 4.58 ERA and .329 batting average against. How this club has nothing in the minors to call up to prevent this dumpster fire from taking the hill every fifth day is beyond me.
LIVE BETTING
Players currently on the Royals roster are batting .314 collectively against Pelfrey. Kendrys Morales is the only one to take him deep, and the last time he was on the road, he launched five home runs in seven games against the Cardinals, Phillies and Blue Jays. He’s certainly a bat to keep an eye on for prop bets in this matchup.
On the Tigers side of things, Victor Martinez and Nick Castellanos are batting .333 and .360 respectively against Duffy with five extra base hits and 7 RBI combined. Each is having solid seasons and each should be taken under consideration for spots on your DFS roster or prop bets in this one.
QUICK PICK
While KC has struggled on the road and the Tigers sit two games over .500 and score an average of 4.8 runs per game versus lefties, I can’t help but side with the Royals in this spot who will no doubt be trotting out the much better overall starter. Pelfrey has been good of late, but there’s no way I can stomach backing him in any start let alone this one against a KC offense that will make him work every inning he takes to the bump. Also solidifying this wager is the Royals ability to take control of games with its bullpen – even with Wade Davis likely unavailable.
MLB Odds: Royals 6, Tigers 4
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