The Pirates continue to keep the pressure on the Cubs in the NL Central and need to knock off the Angels to keep doing so. Bucs starter Francisco Liriano has alarming splits, but the good news for Pittsburgh fans is that he’s been dominant at PNC Park.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Following their road trip to Texas and Miami, the Pirates are back home where they’ve won four straight and eight of their last 10. The Bucs are up 5.06 units on the moneyline in those 10 games. Overall the Pirates are up 3.20 units at home and their 15 wins at PNC Park are the third-most in the National League.
Pittsburgh is also one of the top teams at cashing the over. The Bucs have played above the scoreline 32 times through their first 50 games, tied for the most in the majors, and the over is 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Jered Weaver (4-4, 5.40 ERA) continues to struggle in multiple areas. He allowed four runs on six hits over six innings in a loss to Houston on Saturday. He gave up a home run in his fifth straight start and for the ninth time in his 10 outings. Weaver has yielded 12 homers in 58.1 innings which is partly responsible for his bloated 5.40 ERA.
Weaver has walked six batters with 11 strikeouts on his last three outings and on Saturday induced just three swings and misses. All these problems are partially due to the lower velocity he has shown this season. Weaver has made 301 starts in his career with only one of those coming against the Pirates.
It’s been a roller coaster season for Francisco Liriano (4-4, 4.63 ERA), who was tagged for five runs on six hits, including a pair of homers, in a 6-2 loss to the Rangers on Sunday. His problems with the base on balls continued with four free passes issued to Texas. He’s now walked 15 batters in 23.1 innings over his last four starts.
The veteran left-hander is a different hurler in PNC Park this season. Liriano is 3-1 with a 1.42 ERA in four home starts compared to 1-3 with a 7.09 ERA in six road outings. He’s faced the Angels nine times with eight starts in his career and owns a 5.89 ERA over 44.1 innings.
LIVE BETTING
John Jaso isn’t your typical leadoff hitter. But he’s doing it and it’s working out well for the Pirates this season. In 169 plate appearances from the leadoff spot, Jaso is hitting a breathtaking .320 with a .387 on-base percentage and 19 runs scored. The Pirates got only a .226/.325/.381 line from the leadoff spot last season, so we can assume their jump in run production can be attributed to the success of Jaso.
This MLB season the Pirates are averaging 5.14 runs per game, up nearly a full run per game more than 2015. While Jaso at the top of the order is a reason why, so are the improved numbers from several hitters up and down the lineup. Gregory Polanco, who had plenty of at-bats at leadoff last year, has moved down in the order and thrived being freed from the restraints of hitting at the top of the order.
QUICK PICK
The Pirates are scoring runs at a good clip this season and it’s a good thing because the pitching hasn’t been at its best. Imagine what the Bucs can do if former MVP Andrew McCutchen starts raking the way he can. Weaver has struggled over the past few seasons as his velocity continues to plummet. The Pirates will be waiting for the soft stuff. Liriano has been dynamite at home this year and will have one less bat to worry about with the designated hitter not in effect in the NL park. Not that having the DH has helped the Halos’ offense, which averages just over four runs per game.
MLB Odds: Pittsburgh 5, Los Angeles 3
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