We're not sure there's anything more American you could do on Memorial Day than go see the Chicago Cubs play a game at Wrigley Field. What makes that even better? When the matchup comes against the Los Angeles Dodgers in what could legitimately be a playoff preview in the National League.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Cubs have to be favored in this game due to the fact that they've easily got the best record in baseball. They're only 14-6 at home and have a lot of work to do yet to get beyond that coveted 100-win mark, but games like these are the ones which should be won more often than not.
The problem? Chicago has been a favorite at least -200 in five of its last seven home games. If that trend continues, it's going to be really hard to be profitable, even with the potential there to have a 100, maybe even a 110-win season.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Alex Wood was scratched from his start on Friday due to a triceps injury, but he's expected to take the mound on Monday instead. For sure, this is a situation which begs to be watched.
Wood has been cruising right along of late. In his last three starts, he's allowed just four earned runs over 18.1 innings of work, and in his last outing against San Diego, he struck out 13 men and needed just 92 pitches in order to do it. The southpaw has gotten his control back in order once again, and that's going to be crucial against a Chicago lineup which can really take advantage of mistakes.
The raw numbers say that Jason Hammel is 6-1 with a 2.17 ERA, but when you dig a little bit deeper, you can plainly see that his fortune is going to run out at some point.
He's got a BABIP of just .269 and an LOB percentage of 83.9, numbers which just aren't sustainable, particularly for a fly ball pitcher in this park. While it's still cold in Chicago, Hammel is perfectly fine to back, but right at that point the wind starts blowing out with regularity in the warm summer months, look out. Hammel's xFIP of 4.14 might ultimately come back to haunt him.
LIVE BETTING
The Cubs had a few rough series over the course of the last week and a half, but they seem to have gotten back on the right track again after dropping 21 runs in two days on the Cardinals to end their last series of the week. This weekend's series against the Phillies at home figures to be another high-scoring one, and if that keeps up, it's tough to bet against this lineup.
Even after a stretch of seven out of eight games scoring three runs or fewer, the North Siders are still at 5.69 runs per game, a mark which legitimately could be sustainable considering the fact that they haven't played all that many home games yet and still have a lot of the warm summer to go.
QUICK PICK
We just flat out can't trust Wood in this MLB game. Triceps injuries are a big deal for pitchers, and generally speaking when a pitcher gets scratched from a start because of any arm trouble whatsoever, that means he's headed for the disabled list, not the mound three days later.
If Wood trots out there on Monday, we just can't trust him. The Dodgers have been a woeful team when you take out what Clayton Kershaw has done, and even if the Cubs are laying something like -180 wood on the MLB betting lines, we aren't going to pass so long as their offense keeps up over the weekend the way it did in the middle of the week in St. Louis.
MLB Odds: Cubs 6, Dodgers 3
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