Two of the favorites in the National League will kick off the first of a three game series on Monday with the Chicago Cubs will welcome the Los Angeles Dodgers to historic Wrigley Field in a nationally broadcast showdown. The Cubs took both of the games against the Dodgers this spring and won four of the seven head-to-head games a year ago.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Dodgers and Cubs played each other rather close last season and met in the NLCS with Chicago taking the series four games to two.
Los Angeles took an early two games to one led in that NLCS series, shutting out the Cubs in back-to-back contests in Game 2 and Game 3. The Cubs’ offense came to life after that and was able to help carry the team to their first World Series title since 1908.
Both of these teams remain relatively the same as the teams that met in last year’s postseason, making this series a fun rematch. The Dodgers were able to resign most of their key free agents in the offseason while the Cubs lost Dexter Fowler atop the order, but have Kyle Schwarber back healthy.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
A pair of southpaws are set to matchup in Sunday’s showdown with Jon Lester taking the mound against the Dodgers’ Rich Hill.
Lester lasted just over five innings in the Cubs’ Opening Night loss to the Cardinals. He left the game having surrendered just a single run while striking out seven St. Louis batters.
Meanwhile, Hill got the win in his season debut, although his opposition was a lot less imposing as he topped the Padres. He only went five frames in that game.
Lester came into this season off a second place finish in the NL Cy Young Award voting last year where he went 19-5 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.016 WHIP in 202.2 innings of work.
Hill’s ERA and WHIP were better than Lester’s, but Hill only threw 110.1 innings combined between Oakland and Los Angeles thanks to a blister issue. Still, he went 12-5 with a 2.12 ERA and 0.997 WHIP. In his six regular season starts for the Dodgers, his ERA was 1.83 and his WHIP was a miniscule 0.786.
For Hill, it’s the curve ball that has given him his recent success and that’ll present a challenge for a rather young offensive club for the Cubs, though Chicago’s already shown the ability to ready the breaking ball here in the early going of 2017.
Both starters will try and go deeper into the game on Monday night than they lasted in their season debut.
LIVE BETTING
The Cubs are Rich Hill’s original team when he made his major league debut as a highly touted prospect in 2005 and showed some early promise before floating around and eventually finding himself in the Independent League.
Interestingly, Hill has only faced one batter on the roster for his former team in the regular season as Ben Zobrist is 1-for-2 against him with a walk and a RBI.
In Hill’s Game 3 start in the NLCS, he threw six shutout innings, allowing just two hits and two walks while striking out six. Kris Bryant collected both of the hits.
Lester, meanwhile, has a lot more experience against Dodgers’ batters with Franklin Gutierrez the L.A. hitter with the most regular season at-bats, facing him 23 times. He’s collected just five hits against him with striking out 11 times.
That’s a bad sign for the Dodgers. L.A. was absolutely miserable against southpaws last year with an MLB worse average and OPS against LHP. They’ve carried that into this season as Clayton Richard shut down this team in the Padres’ only win against the Dodgers in the opening series.
Gutierrez was one of the players brought in to help the team against southpaws. Historically, the veteran outfield has hit lefties very well; that is all lefties other than Lester. Logan Forsythe was the other right-hander added to help against lefties and he’s 0-for-8 against Lester in his career.
QUICK PICK
The Dodgers are facing a southpaw. That’s a terrible sign, though Yasiel Puig is swinging a hot bat early. Still, don’t count on a good offensive performance for the Dodgers against a left-hander until the team proves themselves.
Look for a low scoring game early with some offense coming into play once the bullpens come into play. That’ll happen a bit earlier for the Dodgers than the Cubs who actually have the deeper pen on paper.
The Cubs should get the win at home, but look for a close low scoring game.
MLB Odds: Cubs 3, Dodgers 2
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