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Even though the Los Angeles Dodgers still have an awful record in games not pitched by Clayton Kershaw, they do have six wins in their last seven games heading into a pivotal four-game set at Wrigley Field. The third of those fourth games against the Chicago Cubs comes on Wednesday Night Baseball.
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PITCHING MATCHUP
The Dodgers continue to struggle to find the right arms in the back of their rotation. Young 19-year old Julio Urias didn't work out in the first start of his career, but maybe Mike Bolinsger can hold down a spot in the rotation.
The biggest drawback to what Bolsinger brings to the table is the fact that he just isn't pitching deep into games. We'll talk more about the Dodgers and their pen in a moment, but Bolsinger has yet to complete six frames this year, and he only averaged just a tick over five innings per start a year ago.
The raw numbers for Bolsinger are okay through two starts, but he's now surrendered 20 homers in 171.2 innings in his career, and live bettors know that could be trouble against a very good Cubs lineup.
Jon Lester is coming off of a nice bounce back performance last week against the Phillies. He was the first Chicago starter to not last five innings in a game this season in San Francisco the week prior, but that really seems to be nothing but a blip on the radar.
The southpaw is now 5-3 with a 2.48 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. That ERA might not quite seem sustainable, but his WHIP is right in line with what he's done for his career.
The fear for Lester and his live bettors is the fact that he really has never pitched well against the Dodgers, going just 1-2 with a 5.19 ERA against them in his career.
ADVANCED STATS
These Cubs are scary offensively. We know this. Any team which has five regulars slugging at least .513 and has four men on pace for 100 RBIs is nuts. But now extrapolate just the numbers the North Siders have had against righties, and it's clear that poor Bolsinger doesn't stand a chance in this one.
Dexter Fowler, Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Tommy La Stella all have OPS marks of .920 or higher against righties this season. The ISO numbers for these men are crazy as well, notably Rizzo's .282 versus right-handers.
Remember how we mentioned all of the struggles Bolsinger has had keeping the ball in the yard? Unless all of a sudden the wind starts to kick up in the face of the batters at Wrigley, there's little chance Bolsinger gets through this start without making a big mistake to someone in that Chicago lineup.
TALKING BULLPENS
Dave Roberts has himself a big problem with his bullpen, and with no days off to work with until June 9, there isn't going to be a lot he can do about it.
Take Sunday night for example. Kershaw was against fantastic for 7.2 innings of work. He left up 2-1 in the bottom of the eighth, but instead of calling upon Kenley Jansen for a four-out save, Roberts used Adam Liberatore, who immediately gave up the run he inherited from Kershaw in the form of an RBI triple. The Dodgers did come back and score in the ninth, and Jansen got the save anyway, but that's a microcosm of their season to date.
It's really the xFIP of all of these pitchers who have us concerns. Jansen is doing a fine job as a closer, but aside from that, Pedro Baez is the only other pitcher in this bullpen with an xFIP of better than 3.80. That's a horrifying stat for middle relievers, and as a result, what you saw on Sunday is something you're going to see a lot of.
Just look at the inherited runners scored stat. Louis Coleman, Liberatore, and even Jansen have all IRS percentages of less than 30 percent. Sure, it's early in the year, and one bad outing can skew those numbers, but as a whole, this bullpen has been allowing far too many men to score and hasn't been getting out of nearly enough jams. If you find yourself in a position to live bet this game in the middle of a pitching change, the Cubs are definitely the ones you want to back.
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Don't miss out on getting paid because you couldn't bet. Click here, and deposit at BookMaker now! The game pitting the Los Angeles Dodgers versus the Chicago Cubs will commence Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 8:05 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. You can watch the contest live on ESPN.
