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The Houston Astros return home for Game 3 of the World Series having salvaged a split on the road. That’s goal for any road team. Now, the Astros will get to play at home where its dominated all October. The Los Angeles Dodgers, meanwhile, had all the momentum into the ninth innings of Game 2. They looked to have a 2-0 series lead locked down, but the seemingly immortal Dodgers’ bullpen was, in fact, mortal, denting the confidence of what had been the team’s biggest postseason strength.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
It took until 18 innings, but the Houston offense finally came to life, squeezing across a run in the eighth, adding one in the ninth and then going off in the 10th.
The Astros’ offense has been its biggest strength all season long. Houston boasts an offense that can do damage top-to-bottom and we started to see that in Game 2.
Jose Altuve, who had been quiet all series, went yard in the 10th and Carlos Correa followed suit. Those two form the best middle infield in the sport. Marwin Gonzalez went yard and George Springer—who many wanted moved down in the order—notched three hits including the monumental 11th inning home run blast.
Houston’s bats waited until Game 6, at home, to come to life in the ALCS. They took care of business on the road late in Game 2 to steal a game.
On the other side, Justin Turner was the Game 1 hero with a two-run blast, but Chris Taylor has been the real thorn in the Astros’ side.
The first seven of the Dodgers’ runs this series came on the long ball. In both games, a walk by Chris Taylor set up an innings prior to a two-run bomb. Yasiel Puig has had one heck of a postseason, too, including his 10th inning blast in Game 2.
Still, Taylor may be the biggest key. He needs to continue to set the table for the Dodgers, but L.A. will also need to take advantage of a game against someone other than Dallas Keuchel or Justin Verlander.
Regardless, you can count on both teams to provide plenty of power. The two squads combined for eight blasts in Game 2, the most in a single game in World Series history.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Lance McCullers Jr. wasn’t given a rotation spot heading into the postseason. The talented right-hander struggled in three starts in September after missing more than a month.
A.J. Hinch and company weren’t convinced he was healthy enough and able to start. Instead, he saw one relief appearance in the series against the Red Sox, allowing two runs in three innings.
With a reassurance of health, McCullers was given the start in Game 4 of the ALCS. He didn’t get the win as the Yankees ultimately won the game 6-4, coming back against the Houston bullpen. Nevertheless, McCullers threw well, going six innings and allowing one run on two hits. He came in to relieve Charlie Morton in Game 7 and threw four more quality innings, allowing just a single hit and striking out six.
If healthy, McCullers is a great pitcher. He had an All-Star first half and despite a 4.25 ERA on the season overall, he ended with a 3.10 FIP as he pitched in a bit of bad luck.
The Dodgers’ have a bigger name set to start Game 3 with Yu Darvish lined up to take the ball.
Darvish has been the No. 3 starter all postseason, lining him up to pitch on the road in all three series.
Location doesn’t matter for the 31-year old out of Japan. Darvish has a 3.14 career ERA on the road. In fact, he’s pitched better on the road than at home. While much of that can be attributed to spending most of his career in the hitter friendly Globe Life Park, he’s still pitched well on less-familiar mounds.
With the Dodgers’ playing so well here in October, Darvish has only made two starts all postseason. He should be more than adequately rested. Despite all the rest—or perhaps because of it—Darvish has thrived in his starts. In the NLDS, the righty held the Diamondbacks to a single run on two hits over five innings. He went 6.1 against the Cubs in the NLCS and allowed only one run there, too. He did give up six hits in that one. Overall, he’s struck out 14, walked one and given up eight hits all postseason.
LIVE BETTING
Even after the Dodgers’ bullpen allowed four runs in Game 2, L.A. has the bullpen edge. Those were the only four runs the pen has allowed all postseason. Two scored with Kenley Jansen on the mound. We cannot expect that to happen again. Two more came off back-to-back blasts off Josh Fields who was only in the game because Dave Roberts went to the pen early and often, leaving it lacking when the game went extra frames. Brandon McCarthy was all that was left for the 11th and gave up the bomb to George Springer.
Roberts won’t have as quick of a hook for Darvish and that’ll allow the pen to line up better if they’re able to get to the relief corps with the lead.
On the other side, the Astros pen struggled against the Yankees in the ALCS. We saw A.J. Hinch intentionally avoid the normal relievers and use McCullers in Game 7. That was an indication of his confidence in the group of relievers.
So far this World Series, the pen hasn’t been used too much. Ken Giles did give up a homer to Yasiel Puig in the 10th and eventually the lead on a RBI single off the bat of Kike Hernandez. That’s continues to create questions. Chris Devenski finally shut the door, but even he gave up a homer to Charlie Cuberson while battling Turner and Puig.
In the regular season, the top arms in the Houston pen delivered, but October has been a bit too shaky to trust with a one-run lead late.
QUICK PICK
The Astros need this win. McCullers has looked good in his last few appearances. He’s certainly has the stuff to match up with Davish pitch for pitch.
The Dodgers’ bullpen has been nails all postseason and is, once again, an advantage over the relief corps of the Astros. That said, the Astros finally broke the group’s postseason scoreless streak in Game 2 and got the win over the pen.
Houston’s bats woke late in Game 2 and have been so much better at the dish at Minute Maid Park.
Houston’s been nearly unbeatable at home this postseason and they’ll continue that in efforts of extending this series.
MLB Odds: Astros 5, Dodgers 3
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