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The Los Angeles Dodgers head into Game 4 having to overcome their first deficit of the postseason. L.A. had rolled through the first two rounds, but the Houston Astros stole a win in Game 2 and carried the momentum back home where the Astros have still yet to lose a playoff game.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Astros have now won seven straight home games here in October. They took both home games in the ALDS against Boston and won all four home games against the Yankees in the ALCS to advance to the Fall Classic. Houston is just 2-5 on the road, but at home this team has been an entirely different club.
Offensively, the late games heroics by Marwin Gonzalez against Kenley Jansen woke up a lineup that can do damage top-to-bottom. After Gonzalez, homers from Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer highlighted just how much pop this Houston team has.
The Houston offense is rolling right now and they’re getting enough pitching while the Dodgers have begun to see things unravel.
Los Angeles scored only three runs in Game 3, their second game of three runs or less this postseason. Between Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger, the Dodgers have hitters who can rake, but Houston—at least through three games—has found a way to keep the stellar Dodger offense in check.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Charlie Morton takes the ball for the Astros off a strong performance in Game 7 of the ALCS.
Morton struggled in his first start against the Yankees in the series, but bounced back in a big way, going five scoreless frames and allowing only three base runners. He only needed 54 pitches, but A.J. Hinch went to Lance McCullers Jr. after five anyway.
Morton figures to have a chance to go deeper into the game on Saturday night. McCullers just started Game 3 and Hinch still appears a bit uncomfortable about many the options he has in the pen.
The Astros’ right-hander had a strong season. He’s 60-78 in his career with a negative career rWAR, but produced a rWAR of 1.8 in 2017. With a 14-7 record and 3.62 ERA, he was a respectable mid-rotation arm. He can struggle with command from time-to-time, but generally keeps the ball in the yard.
In addition to the above, Morton really enjoys pitching at Minute Maid Park. He went 10-3 with a 3.34 ERA in his 15-regular season starts there. His only postseason start at home was, by far, his best.
While the Dodgers turn to the prototypical fourth starter in Morton, the Dodgers have a hurler who posted a .842 winning percentage and 2.72 ERA lined up for Game 2.
Alex Wood is slated to make the start. He was an All-Star and had a huge year though he regressed in the second half. After a 10-0 record and 1.67 ERA in 15 first-half appearances. He started 12 second half games. He still went 6-3 with a 3.89 ERA. That’s solid, but not nearly as spectacular.
In the postseason, Wood has made only one appearance, starting Game 4 against the Cubs in the NLCS. Interestingly, that was the only postseason games the Dodgers had lost coming into the World Series.
Wood lasted just 4.2 innings in his lone postseason appearance, allowing three solo home runs. Considering all the homers, he did a good job limiting the damage. He allowed only one hit other than the homers and walked no one.
The homers, however, are concerning. Wood hadn’t pitched in 22 days so his command issues were understandable. He has another long layoff before Saturday, but 10 days seems like nothing compared to his last gap.
LIVE BETTING
The Dodgers’ bullpen could use a long outing by Wood. Yu Darvish couldn’t get out of the second in Game 3, forcing the relief corps into early action after the extra inning affair in Game 2.
Darvish’s start was the shortest of his career. The Astros’ bats are alive after their ALCS struggles.
To get through Game 3, Roberts used five different pitchers out of the pen. Kenley Jansen will still be fresh. Houston has already proven they can get to him, however.
Kenta Maeda took on the brunt of the innings after Darvish left in the second. He threw 2.2 innings and kept Los Angeles in the game. He, however, tossed 42 pitches and won’t be available on Saturday. Maeda’s been a weapon for Roberts in the pen.
While a lot of arms were used, Maeda was the only one to throw more than 18 pitches so while the rest of the pen may not be fresh, they’ll be available.
Houston’s bullpen has been suspect this postseason and A.J. Hinch has avoided the unit as much as possible. That said, while the trust is still not there, the pen should be well-rested. Lance McCullers Jr. and Brad Peacock combined to toss all nine innings for the Astros in Game 3.
QUICK PICK
Based on the regular season numbers, Wood should have the advantage over Morton. Morton, however, is pitching at home and Wood has been a much more pedestrian starter—much like Morton—since the All-Star break.
Given Wood’s likely rust and the Astros dominance at home, however, look for Houston to capture Game 4, coming within a win of the team’s first World Series title.
Morton threw well in his last start and the Houston bullpen is rested behind him. Meanwhile, the Astros offense is clicking and has shown it can score against the Dodgers’ best.
MLB Odds: Astros 7, Dodgers 5
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