Miami is about to be the talk of the baseball world as it gets set to host the All-Star game. Before then, however, the Miami Marlins will close out their first half on the other side of the country, taking on the San Francisco Giants in a three-game series over the weekend. Neither Miami nor San Francisco are having the season they hoped to have, but each will have a chance to close out the first half on a winning note.
This series will be contested from Friday, July 7, 2017 through Sunday, July 9, 2017 at AT&T Park in San Francisco.
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Pitching Matchups
It’s been the pitching that’s been as disappointing as anything for the Giants to this point in the season. Without Madison Bumgarner, this rotation has fallen apart.
The Giants’ worst starts have come with Matt Moore on the mound. He starts on Friday opposite of the Marlins’ Dan Straily.
Moore last faced Detroit back in 2013 and didn’t fare well against them in his two previous starts.
He hasn’t fare well at all in 2017. He’s 3-8 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.621 WHIP. He’s got good stuff, but has had terrible command. He’s walked 41 batters in 95 innings and has allowed 10.7 hits per nine innings to go along with 14 homers allowed.
Over his last six starts, Moore has a 7.50 ERA. All of those numbers point to a pitcher who is lost, but Moore has been Doctor Jekyll at home and Mr. Hyde on the road. In seven starts at AT&T Park, Moore is still only 2-4, but he has a 3.77 ERA and 1.279 WHIP.
As for Straily, he’s the team leader in innings, tossing 95 with a respectable 3.51 ERA and 6-4 record. He’s been very good at keeping runners off base with a 1.095 WHIP though he is prone to the occasional long ball. His BABIP against him also indicates that luck has played a bit of a role in his solid overall performance.
Three of Straily’s last four starts have been quality outings by definition.
Moving on to Saturday, Jeff Samardzija gets the start for San Francisco against Vance Worley for the Fish.
Samardzija is a bit of a mysterious case. He’s thrown three straight quality starts which is encouraging, but he’s 4-9 with a 4.54 ERA. The Giants are 7-10 when he takes the mound.
The lanky right-hander has allowed just three walks since the beginning of May while raking up the strikeouts in that time. His strikeout to walk ratio is 9.38, the best in the league. With so few walks, most of the advanced pitching metrics rate him much better than his overall numbers. His FIP is 3.41. The issue for him, however, is when he’s hit, he’s hit hard. The homers are up, too. He’s allowed seven over his last five starts.
On the other side, Worley provides Samardzija a chance to improve his record. The right-hander is a fill-in starter. He’s 0-2 with a 6.31 ERA in 25.2 big league innings this year. He’s made four starts and six relief appearances. He’s allowed 14 runs in 16.1 innings in his four starts.
To wrap up the three game set, Sunday will pin Jose Urena against Matt Cain.
Urena leads Marlins starters with his 3.43 ERA. He’s 7-3 with a 1.217 WHIP in 81.1 innings. Like Worley, he’s split time between the rotation and the pen, but has fare much better in a starter’s role than Worley.
Urena hasn’t allowed more than three runs in his last six starts and Miami is 7-2 in his last nine starts.
Cain, meanwhile, has been nearly as bad as Moore. He’s 3-8 with a 5.58 ERA. He’s been incredibly hittable with 11.6 hits allowed per nine innings leading to a 1.683 WHIP. It’s been tough going for the veteran right-hander who has allowed at least five runs in four of his last six starts.
Betting Trends
Back-to-back series sweeps have the Giants playing some of the best baseball they’ve played all year.
A loss to the Tigers on Tuesday was a bit of a check, but San Francisco has seen much better pitching out of the pen, helping to keep them in the win column over the last week.
Of course at 33-52, the Giants are still one of the worst teams in baseball. They’re still just as bad at home as they are on the road, too. Still, recent play matters.
Sam Dyson may have righted the ship with a change of scenery. The former Rangers closer has four straight scoreless appearances with six strikeouts in 4.2 innings with just one walk and three hits allowed. Hunter Strickland and George Kontos are also throwing well.
Over in Miami, the Marlins have lost five of their last seven games. They’ve allowed at least eight runs in three of those contests.
Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna and Justin Bour have been slugging, but the rest of the lineup has a number of holes while the pitching has been hit-or-miss both in the rotation and out of the pen.
Names to Remember
Outside of the big names like Stanton, Ozuna, J.T. Realmuto and others, Tyler Moore has been a huge performer for the Marlins off the bench.
He’s played in 46 games, but has only 88 plate appearances. In those 88 appearances at the dish, he’s hit six homers and driven in 21. His OBP is under .300, but he’s a nice power bat off the bench when the Fish need a little late inning thump. Keep an eye on him if the pitcher’s spot comes due in a key situation late.
On the other side, watch out for Denard Span. The table-setter has been a nice spark over the last week. Aside from the pen, he’s one of the big reasons for the recent success.
The outfielder is batting 5-for-17 with a couple walks in his last five games. The Giants need him and Joe Panik setting the table ahead of Hunter Pence, Buster Posey and Brandon Belt.
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