By mid-May, the New York Mets were supposed to be battling for the top spot in the NL East on the shoulders of their strong, young rotation while the Milwaukee Brewers were scuffling as fodder at the bottom of the NL Central for the likes of the Cubs and Cardinals. Instead, as these teams get set for a three-game weekend series, the Brewers actually enter play with the better record.
This series will be contested from Friday, May 12, 2017 through Sunday, May 14, 2017 at Miller Park in Milwaukee.
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Pitching Matchups
The embattled Matt Harvey is back on the mound for the first time in Friday’s series opener since his suspension as a result of his missed game due to a headache triggered by his late night partying and morning golf.
Harvey has long been one to march to the beat of his own drum and the Mets seemed more willing to put up with his antics when he was pitching like a true ace. Now, however, his on-field numbers have been nearly as troubling as his off-field issues.
With Noah Syndergaard out, the Mets need Harvey and Jacob deGrom to lead the way on the mound, but the 28-year old hasn’t been the same pitcher over the last two seasons. Last year, his ERA ballooned to 4.86 and the right-hander is now just 2-2 with a 5.14 ERA this season and has seen his strikeout rate drop all the way down to just 5.1 per nine innings after it was 9.6 in his breakout 2013 season.
To put the off-field matters behind him and get the city of New York back on his side, the Dark Knight needs a big performance, but can he produce? His stuff is just not there. He started to look himself again a few starts ago, but has given up six runs a piece in each of his last two starts. Meanwhile, he goes against a good hitting Brewers’ team on Friday. He did, however, give up just one run on two hits in his only career start against the Brew Crew.
Harvey will be the storyline on Friday, but the Brewers’ have their own man of mystery on the hill for that game in Matt Garza.
Garza looked like his career was essentially over after a couple back to back seasons where he struggled. The former ace had one good year for the Brew Crew and has struggled since, but he’s been a pleasant surprise here in 2017, going 1-0 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.189 WHIP in his first three starts. Obviously, that’s a small sample size, but he went seven strong innings, allowing one run against the Pirates his last time out.
For the rest of the weekend, the pitching matchups are Robert Gsellman against Zach Davies on Saturday and deGrom against Wily Peralta on Sunday.
After doing a great job in his chances last year, Gsellman was part of the depth that allowed the Mets to part ways with Bartolo Colon in the offseason. He was handed the fifth starter’s job and has struggled. He is 2-2, but his 6.54 ERA and 1.642 WHIP paint the picture of a pitcher who has been incredibly hittable. He’s already allowed 42 hits in 31.2 innings. deGrom, on the other hand, is the only certain answer in the Mets’ rotation right now.
With Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Seth Lugo out and with Harvey, Gsellman and Zack Wheeler are pitching to ERA’s north of 4, it’s up to deGrom to be the stopper in this rotation. He’s not been lights out, but he’s kept the Mets in the game.
Overall, he’s 2-1 with a 3.80 ERA despite a higher than normal WHIP of 1.336 and despite four walks per nine innings and six homers. In his 42.2 innings, he’s still struck out 60 batters, helping him get out of jams even with the extra base runners.
Over on the Brewers’ side of things, Davies has a chance against the Mets and Gsellman. He’s down well in his young career against the Mets, striking out 12 in 11.1 innings pitched, giving up just four earned runs. His season as a whole hasn’t been great so far, but his 5.60 ERA is lower than Gsellman’s and he’s still managed to capture three wins.
Peralta leads the team with four wins and is 4-2 in his seven starts. Sure, his 5.30 ERA is high and he’s pitching opposite deGrom, but he’s been able to get excellent run support.
Who's Hot?
Just when we thought his bat was slowing down, the player the Korean baseball folks call “God” is slugging once more. Eric Thames leads the league with his 13 home runs and has a 1.182 OPS through 32 games.
The first baseman is slugging the ball, but he’s also showing much better plate discipline with a .439 OBP and 20 walks to his 30 strikeouts. He had a stretch where he was 3-for-20 and went nine games without a blast, but has done 7-for-13 in his last three games and has delivered two homers, two doubles and five RBIs in those games.
Keon Broxton has also been swinging a hot stick for the Brew Crew. He’s helped to cover for the slow start by Jonathan Villar and is taking over atop the order. He’s getting on base for Thames and the heart of the order which also includes Travis Shaw who’s heated up with the games against the Red Sox, his former team.
Interestingly, Hernan Perez, the man without a position thanks in part to Shaw, is hitting well, too. He’s the super-sub that’s slugged four homers and has 15 RBIs and a .846 OPS in a near full-time role moving around the field.
T.J. Rivera has been a godsend for this team at first base. Since taking over the spot, he’s hitting .300 with a .849 OPS. He’s got just a single homer, but has seven doubles and has consistently put together strong at bats.
Michael Conforto and Jay Bruce, however, are the stars of this team right now and the biggest reasons they’re not even worse off in the standings than they are. The duo have each been worth more than 1 rWAR so far on the young season.
Who's Not?
Ryan Braun just worked his way back into the lineup and is now back injured again. He’s the main protection for Thames and the tandem is a big part of the Brewers’ ranking second in the NL in total runs scored.
If Braun is healthy, he’s part of the “Who’s Hot” rather than “Who’s Not,” but with this lineup it’s hard to find a “not” outside of Villar and Orlando Arcia. These are two of the best athletes on the team, but both are struggling at the plate with a .580 and .623 OPS respectively.
Villar’s hitting woes are starting to impact him in the field and on the bases, too. A couple nights ago, he got on base three times, but managed to get caught stealing twice and picked off once, effectively nullifying the positives.
For the Mets’ the entire team seems to be injured and that’s certainly impacted the team’s ability to put runs on the board. Yoenis Cespedes remains out and Asdrubal Cabrera is dinged up, too.
Jose Reyes is finally starting to swing the bat and could be listed as a hot player right now, but this team of good players is still having struggles. Curtis Granderson, for instance, is hitting just .139 and even with Reyes hitting better, he’s still below the Mendoza line.
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