The St. Louis Cardinals remain on the fringes of the wildcard picture in the NL despite a 40-44 record. They’re 7-4 in their last 11 games, giving their fans hope despite plenty of long losing streaks. The Cards will play host to the New York Mets over the weekend as they look to get some momentum going into the All-Star break. Both of these teams were expected to be contenders and both have, to this point, been heavy disappointments.
This series will be contested from Friday, July 7, 2017 through Sunday, July 9, 2017 at Busch Stadium in St. Louis.
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Pitching Matchups
We get the best matchup of this series on Friday with Jacob deGrom matching up against Carlos Martinez.
deGrom is one of many All-Star snubs. While the Mets’ rotation has been an utter disappointment, deGrom has been the lone bright spot.
The right-hander is 8-3 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.221 WHIP in 104 innings spread over 16 starts. His ERA and WHIP are both a bit elevated from his career norms, but he has already accumulated 2.9 rWAR and is red hot right now.
After blowing up in a start against the Rangers at the beginning of June, he proceeded to thrown four straight games allowing no more than a single run. In those four games, he’s thrown 32 innings, allowing three earned runs. That’s a 0.84 ERA. He’s also 4-0 in those games, striking out 31 and averaging eight innings a start. Given the Mets’ questionable bullpen after Addison Reed, the depth he’s provided lately is as important as the scoreless frames.
Martinez has had a better season than deGrom to this point, at least according to ERA and WHIP. He’s only 6-7, but has a 3.15 ERA and 1.123 WHIP in his 17 starts and 111.1 innings.
The right-hander will be in Miami next week for the All-Star game and deserves to be there. He’s had a strong year, but is coming off a five-run, five-inning start against the Nationals. Prior to that, however, he had a four start stretch where he threw 27 innings with 33 strikeouts and five runs allowed.
As the series ticks on, the Cardinals will turn to Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn on Saturday and Sunday respectively. The Mets will counter with Rafael Montero and Steven Matz.
Wainwright is no longer the same pitcher he was in his younger days. He’s 9-5 which is great, but his 5.48 ERA and 1.550 WHIP are concerning. He pitched four scoreless in his last start, before getting crushed for six runs in the fifth by the Marlins. The 35-year old is given a long leash by Mike Matheny, but his past success isn’t likely to continue to buy him a chance to work out of jams moving forward.
While St. Louis has a question mark going every time Wainwright takes the hill, he has still won nine games. He also has a nice matchup on Saturday opposite of Montero who has a 5.63 Era and 1.878 WHIP jumping between the rotation and the bullpen. He’s 1-5.
Sunday’s matchup, meanwhile, will pin a reliable arm in Lynn against a young stud in Matz. Since coming off the DL, Matz is 2-1 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.029 WHIP in his five starts. He’s pitched 34 innings and has done well limiting both walks and hits. He has also struck out just 22 as he’s getting much more weak contact than swing and miss. He’s getting some hard contact, too, allowing five homers in the five games.
For Lynn, the ever-reliable starter is 6-6 with a 3.87 ERA. The 30-year old has allowed 21 runs in his last four games, spanning just 21.2 innings.
Who's Hot?
Curtis Granderson is red-hot for the Mets. He’s batting .329 with a .455 OBP and has nine homers in his last 25 games. He’s also added 17 RBIs and a pair of stolen bases in that span.
Even though the wins aren’t coming, he’s not the lone hitter swinging well. Jay Bruce—who himself is an All-Star snub—is batting .275 with eight homers over the last month. Asdrubal Cabrera is getting on base at a .390 clip in his last 17 games.
The New York offense is perpetually dysfunctional. There are a ton of all-or-nothing players and they’re likely the streakiest team in baseball. After all, with as well as Granderson is swinging the bat now, he’s still only hitting .236 given how much of a struggle it was for him early on.
Lucas Duda is another streaky player. His .908 OPS and 14 homers in 59 games are pretty appealing though and they make him a sizeable threat to the Cardinals’ pitching even though he’s batting just .218 over his last month.
Since moving atop the order, the Cardinals have been getting better production from Matt Carpenter. He’s got a .407 OBP in his last 28 games though his average remains pedestrian.
Jedd Gyorko has been seeing the ball really well, too. He’s driven in 20 runs in his last 28 games while drawing 16 walks; adding patience to his power.
Who's Not?
Pitching is the biggest issue for this Mets team. That’s quite the 180-transition from where they were a year ago. Stocked with talented young arms, injuries and ineffectiveness has plagued this team.
They’re starting to get better outings from their rotation as Matz and Montero have had a few good outings recently. And, of course, deGrom is the ace. The rotation may be ironing itself out, but the bullpen is a mess leading up to Addison Reed.
The Mets’ closer has allowed just two runs in his last 11 games, but he’s got just six saves in the last month as the opportunities haven’t been there.
Bridging the gap to Reed has been a huge struggle. Fernando Salas has allowed 10 runs and 19 hits—including three homers—in his last 9.1 innings. Jerry Blevins has allowed seven runs in his last nine. Going down the line, Paul Sewald and Josh Edgin have also struggled.
The Mets’ bullpen isn’t alone in its struggles. St. Louis has had a very inconsistent pen all year. That’s been part of their problem. Right now, Seung-hwan Oh has allowed four homers in the last month.
The offense has also struggled off and on all year. This is a lineup missing a big thumper in the middle and one that has a number of questions on defense. Dexter Fowler and Kolten Wong on the DL does not help the defense.
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