This series will be contested from Monday, May 15, 2017 through Wednesday, May 17, 2017 at Chase Field in Phoenix. Wednesday's clash is being shown on the MLB Network for those out of the local markets.
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Pitching Matchups
The series will kick off with a couple of Zacks on the mound as Zach Wheeler takes the hill for the Mets and Zack Godley toes the rubber for the Diamondbacks.
Wheeler is still trying to get back to the pitcher he was before missing a couple seasons and has been okay, but has continued to struggle with pitch efficiency. He finally made it through six frames with less than 100-pitches his last time out.
The right-hander should keep New York in the game through five or six. He’s 2-2 with a 4.18 ERA, but the bullpen should be asked to give this team at least three innings.
Godley, on the other hand, is the replacement for the injured Shelby Miller. He’s made only two starts this year and came out with two runs over a five-inning performance against the Padres in his first start of the year and followed that up with a one run, seven inning performance against the Tigers in his last start.
The series rolls along with the biggest mismatch of the set on Tuesday as Tommy Milone is the latest roll of the dice pick up for the Mets and he’ll be asked to matchup with the D-Back’s other Zack: Zack Greinke.
The 30-year old Milone is the definition of a journeyman, 4-A pitcher. He can fill in for a short time, but is nothing to write home about. He gave the team five solid in his first outing and he’ll be asked to do so again. That’s about the limit of what you can expect from him.
Over parts of seven seasons, Milone is a .577-pitcher with 45 wins to just 33 losses, but his 4.21 ERA, 4.40 FIP and 1.327 WHIP paint the picture of an average—at best—starter. His numbers are also inflated by his performance before last year. He pitched to a 5.71 ERA in 19 games last year and had a 6.43 ERA in 21 innings this year with Milwaukee before being let go.
For Greinke, he’s having a nice bounce back year after disappointing a season ago. Let’s not forget this is the same pitcher who just two years ago pitched to 19 wins and a 1.66 ERA in 32 games. He’s in a much more difficult park to pitch and, sure, the Mets still have a few good power bats even with their injuries, but he’s 4-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.026 WHIP in his first eight starts of the year. Those are still very good numbers and there’s no reason to expect him not to continue this improved trend.
These two teams will wrap up the series on Wednesday with Matt Harvey getting his second start since his suspension and with Patrick Corbin on the hill for Arizona.
Corbin had an excellent month of April with a 2.29 ERA in six starts, but he’s been a different pitcher in May. He’s pitched in just 10 innings over two starts. He’s 1-1, but the win was more a product of the strong support. He’s allowed 12 earned runs and 15 hits in the month. He’s also given up three bombs.
This is a game of two very good pitchers who have lost their way. Murphy was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball a couple years ago, but his over-confidence and antics have taken their toll. In seven starts this year, he’s got a 5.63 ERA and 1.425 WHIP. He’s not striking out nearly as many as he used to with a 5.9 K per nine inning ratio and he’s striking out just 1.44 per walk.
Murphy’s career with the Mets is holding on by a thread. He came back from his suspension and allowed five runs in five innings. It was his third straight game allowing at least five runs in no more than 5.1 thrown.
Both Corbin and Harvey are coming off a few bad starts, but at least Corbin has shown this season that he can pitch well. You must go back a few years to see the good Harvey.
Who’s Hot?
The Mets got Lucas Duda back over the weekend. That’ll push T.J. Rivera more into a reserve role. Rivera’s done well filling in at first, hitting nearly .300 in his short stint in the bigs.
The team is still missing Yoenis Cespedes. Jose Reyes and Curtis Granderson are also both hitting well below the Mendoza Line. Duda himself is hitting just .234 and the only hitters actually swinging a hot bat are Michael Conforto who is hitting .327 with eight bombs and Rene Rivera who is, surprisingly, hitting .328.
Jay Bruce’s numbers this year are good, but he’s one of the streakier players in the league. Over the last two weeks, Bruce is hitting below .240. His splits against left-handed hurlers are also stark so he’s a matchup threat late in games.
For the D-Backs, the whole offense—save for catcher—have been swinging well. Heading into Sunday, only the Nationals and Brewers have scored more runs than the Diamondbacks.
Who's Not?
The Diamondbacks’ bullpen ERA of 3.96 is good, but that’s the team’s biggest weakness. The rotation’s been a pleasant surprise and the offense is well rounded, but closer Fernando Rodney has a 9.95 ERA and 1.895 WHIP despite nine saves.
It’s the back end of the pen that is the concern. Archie Bradley has been a huge piece in this bullpen. He was inconsistent in the rotation, but his stuff plays up in shorter stints. He’s got a 1.53 ERA in 17.2 innings.
Nevertheless, this is a team that scares you in a close game late. Rodney is far from a sure thing.
The Mets’ bullpen shares the D-Back’s concerns. The middle guys have surprised, but Jeurys Familia is out again. Addison Reed is a good setup man and can slide back into the ninth inning, but that leaves the team exposed in the seventh and eighth.
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