In a rematch of the Wild Card game last year, the San Francisco Giants will host the New York Mets in a three-game series. Neither team went into that game on the best note, but it’s still been all downhill from there for both squads. The Giants have the second worst record in baseball and sit at the bottom of their division while the Mets have only avoided the NL East cellar due to the only team worse than the Giants: the Phillies.
This series will be contested from Friday, June 23, 2017 through Sunday, June 25, 2017 at AT&T Field in San Francisco. FOX will carry Saturday’s contest.
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Pitching Matchups
Seth Lugo will start Friday for the Mets, followed by Jacob deGrom on Saturday. Sunday’s starter has not been announced. Robert Gsellman would be in line for the start, but his struggles may have finally cost him a rotation spot.
For the Giants, the series will feature Ty Blach, Johnny Cueto and Matt Moore, in that order.
Lugo—along with Steven Matz—have really helped stabilize an injury-riddled rotation for New York. He’s pitched well since coming off the DL. He impressed in the World Baseball Classic before the injury and he’s now continuing that trend.
In his first two starts of the season, he’s 1-1, but has allowed only four earned runs, giving the team length, going 13.2 innings.
Compared to some of the other bigger names in the rotation—or on the DL—Lugo’s easy to overlook, but he’s an important arm for the Mets. The same could be said about Blach for San Fran.
The 26-year old has been the Giants’ best starter. While his 4-4 record, 4.23 ERA, 4.06 FIP and 4.1 strikeouts per nine innings are all mediocre stat lines at best, they’re good enough to pass for the best in the rotation of a last-place team.
The left-hander has been able to produce a league-average ERA despite so few strikeouts. That’s impressive and a key has been to control the home run. He did give up a season high two in his last start.
With two unsung starts on Friday, the series shifts to a pair of aces on Saturday as Jacob deGrom reclaims that title with Noah Syndergaard out and Johnny Cueto holds that mantle with Madison Bumgarner still on the DL.
Of the two, deGrom has done better living up to the role. He’s not having his best season, but his 6-3 with a 3.94 ERA. His WHIP is high, but some can be attributed to a higher than normal BABIP against him. His FIP takes that into account and he’s a case of a pitcher under-performing his FIP.
Cueto is under .500 at 5-7, which might be okay given the rest of the Giants’ records. His ERA is 4.42 and his FIP is 4.43, showing he’s been below average and it’s not due to luck.
The right-hander went seven innings of two-run ball his last time out, but lost to the Giants. That was preceded by a rough five-inning, five-run appearance against KC. The hit-or-miss of Cueto has been an issue.
Of course, not nearly as big of an issue as Matt Moore’s struggles.
The lefty has a 3-7 record and 5.82 ERA. The Giants are only 4-11 when he starts, but he is better at home than on the road. His home ERA is 3.07, compared to 8.39 on the road, and San Fran is 2-4 in his six home starts.
Knowing all too well about struggles is Gsellman who is amazingly 5-5 despite his 6.04 ERA and 1.616 WHIP. While he may have come to his last chance for now, the Mets’ depth doesn’t give them too many better options.
Betting Trends
Before Wednesday, the Mets had dropped six of seven games, tail spinning against after a 5-1 stretch and some returning players sparked a bit of optimism.
The Mets have shown repeatedly that they’re an incredibly streaky team. We saw the pitching staff run off a stretch of four straight games allowing just a single run. Now, they’ve allowed 22 runs in two games on Monday and Tuesday.
The pitching is just not there consistently. The bullpen is a question beside Addison Reed and LOOGY Jerry Blevins and the rotation has several talented arms, but also plenty of inconsistency.
Inconsistency is the name of the game for many in the lineup, too. It’s hard to find a streakier player than Jay Bruce while Lucas Duda can certainly give him a run for his money.
On the other side, the Giants’ struggles are now more than just a trend. They’re a clear pattern. They’re a season long mess. Buster Posey is great. He’s having a career year; too bad there is no support.
Player to Watch
Is there anybody to support Posey in the Giants’ lineup? Brandon Belt has some power, but he’s hitting .223. Joe Panik has a respectable .337 OBP, but he’s still sporting an OPS+ under 100.
The one player to watch is Austin Slater. He’s only played 15 games, but he’s been able to stabilize left-field longer than anyone else—though that may say more about the struggles at the position than anything.
Slater is 18-for-53 with 11 RBIs. His average is .340 while the rest of the team not named Posey wallows in the mid-.200s if they’re lucky.
Keep an eye on Slater. If the Giants can get a spark somewhere in the lineup, it could allow them to at least become a bit more competitive. The problem, however, is we saw this before with Christian Arroyo, who ultimately didn’t pan out and is back in the minors.
For the Mets, the player to watch is always Yoenis Cespedes. Is he healthy? Terry Collins has been a bit more cautious with him since his return. He’s hitting when given the chance, but the treatment does cause worry.
Bruce is also an interesting player to watch. We’ve noted how streaky he is, but he’s hit seve homers in June and has a .338 average in the month. That’s pretty good.
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