The annual Subway Series is upon us. When the season began, the New York Mets were expected to be in the playoff hunt while the New York Yankees were in rebuilding mode. Fast forward to the present and things have gone completely the other direction. This Yankees team has overachieved and are positioned for a postseason run. The Mets, meanwhile, have seen their lauded rotation crumble.
This series will be contested from Monday, August 14, 2017 through Thursday, August 17, 2017 with the first two games at Yankees Stadium and the last two at Citi Field, both in New York. The games on Monday and Wednesday will be broadcast on ESPN. Thursday’s showdown will be seen on MLB Network for those outside the local TV markets.
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Pitching Matchups
Rafael Montero starts for the Mets on Monday, but he’s not the biggest question mark on the mound in that game. The Yankees have yet to announce their starter, though it looks like Luis Cessa will make the start after Bryan Mitchell threw 22 pitches on Saturday.
Cessa pitched in nine games—four starts—earlier this year and is 0-3 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.484 WHIP in 31.2 innings. He didn’t look good in the rotation and lost his spot. With little remaining options, he’s likely to get the start. He leaves plenty to be desired, but has a great matchup, pitching opposite of Montero. He should get a ton of support.
Montero has been terrible. He’s 1-8 with a 6.06 ERA and 1.806 WHIP. He’s been nearly a guaranteed loss every time out. In fact, the Mets have won just one of his last seven starts and just four of 23 games he’s pitched in this year.
In his last start, Montero lasted three innings and has allowed at least four runs in three straight games and at leats three runs in his five starts since returning to the rotation.
While Monday will be a slugfest, Tuesday could be a pitchers’ duel. Jacob deGrom takes the hill for the Mets with Sonny Gray starting for the Yankees.
deGrom did get hit by a line drive in his pitching arm in his last start. He will start Tuesday despite that, but the contusion could impact how well he throws. He’s thrown the ball exceptionally well lately, going 9-2 with a 1.82 ERA since June 7 and has struck out 85 batters to 16 walks in that time.
deGrom is 13-5 with a 3.21 ERA this year.
On the other side, Gray is 0-2 in his first two starts in pinstripes. He’s pitched reasonably well in the losses save for some control issues.
On the year, Gray is 6-7 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.183 WHIP. He’s throwing the ball well and doesn’t look fazed by the idea of pitching for the Yankees. He’s just not gotten support—offensively or defensively. He’ll have trouble again on Tuesday, pitching opposite deGrom unless the injury impacts his pitching more than the reports would indicate.
When the series shifts to Citi Field, the Yankees will turn to Jaime Garcia, a former National Leaguer with some experience in the park.
Garcia, like Gray, will be making his third start for the Yankees. He struggled in his first start and went 5.2 innings, allowing three runs in a no-decision the second time out. He’s also going into this game having already lost twice to the Mets this year. Despite the losses, his last start against the Mets was seven innings as he allowed just two runs.
Seth Lugo will matchup with Garcia. The young right-hander pitched well upon his return from injury early, but has a 6.55 ERA in his last four starts. He’s allowed three runs or more in four straight games. Last time out, he allowed five runs in 5.1 innings against a terrible Phillies’ lineup.
The series wraps on Thursday and the Yankees turn to their best pitcher: Luis Severino.
Severino was bombed last time out. He allowed 10 runs in 4.1 innings on Saturday against the Red Sox. The loss bumped his ERA to 3.32 from 2.91.
Prior to that clunker, he went five straight games allowing a run or less. Save that last start, Severino has been as dependable as they come.
The Mets’ start on Thursday is Steven Matz. He, like Lugo, is struggling. He looked a bit better in his last start, but he’s 0-5 with a 9.51 ERA in his last seven starts.
Who's Hot?
Jay Bruce is gone. He was one of the best hitters for the Mets all year. His departure opens the outfield spots for Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes and Curtis Granderson.
All three have looked good since the break. Conforto has been scorching hot. In the last 29 games. He’s batting .287 with a .369 OBP in that time and has hit 12 homers, driving in 23. Wilmer Flores has been equally hot and has gotten a great deal of playing time at third. He’s hitting .318 in his last 24 games with seven homers.
The Yankees have struggle some lately and they’ve fallen in the standings as a result. Despite that, Didi Gregorius is red hot. He’s hitting .348 in his last 29 games. He’s hit eight homers since the break, the most amongst the Yankees.
On the mound, Dellin Betances has been on fire since the All-Star break. He’s allowed one runs in 14.1 innings and has struck out 23. David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle have both adjusted flawlessly to their new roles with the Bronx Bombers, too, giving the Yankees—one again—an elite bullpen.
Who's Not?
Jose Reyes and Travis D’Arnaud have had a rough time in the second half. Reyes still has some speed and is the only stolen base threat on the team, but he can longer get on base with any consistency.
The Mets’ rotation, obviously, has also been ice cold except for deGrom. The bullpen provides little relief. A.J. Ramos has been okay since the trade. Jerry Blevins is functional. That is about it.
Aroldis Chapman is still not back to his normal self. He’s blown two saves since the All-Star break and has 14 strikeouts in 13 innings. That’s fine for your average reliever, but is not quite the dominance you typically see from Chapman.
The list of big name Yankees players on the “Who’s Not” list continues with Aaron Judge. The outfielder obviously still has the pop, but he’s hit just five homers since his Home Run Derby showcase. He’s struck out 42 times in 97 at bats and is just 16-for-97 even though his 25 walks give him a respectable .333 OBP.
Matt Holliday is hitting just .136 since the break while the centerfield position is struggling, too. Jacoby Ellsbury and the newly returned Aaron Hicks are a combined 13-for-79.
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