A huge matchup in the NL East will wrap Hump Day afternoon when Giancarlo Stanton and the Marlins look to overtake second place from Yoenis Cespedes and the Mets when the rivals close their three game series out from Citi Field.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Marlins have always had some solid talent on their roster, but had absolutely no leadership to get them moving in the right direction. Consistency has been key, and after taking two of four from the resurgent Braves over the weekend, Miami now finds itself just 1.5 games off the pace set by the Mets for the second Wild Card slot. If the Fish are to inch closer right before the All-Star break, they need to continue building upon their 22-20 road record that’s seen them reel in $331 of betting profit.
What a way to turn the page on a disappointing sweep at the hands of the NL East leading Nationals! Seriously, if you expected the Mets to dominate the Cubs like they did at Citi field over the weekend, I’d like you to buy my Power Ball tickets this week. Wow! It’s seriously all that comes to mind after they rolled Maddon’s Cubs by the aggregate score of 32-11 throughout the four game series. It all pushed them to seven games over .500 overall (-$487) and at home (-$142).
PROBABLE PITCHERS
It’s really a shame the Marlins don’t have a bona fide No. 2 to slot in right behind Jo-Fer. Miami has only put forth 35 quality starts overall to rank No. 21 in the league, which is surprising considering the defense ranks No. 7 overall with just 40 committed errors. Justin Nicolino hasn’t done much of anything to improve upon those rankings with his 5.34 ERA and bloated .326 batting average against. He’s failed to toss a quality start in each of his last eight trips to the bump, and was raked for nine hits through 5.1 innings against the Mets earlier this season.
Jacob deGrom looked primed and ready to become NY’s No. 1 starter entering the season after dominating throughout 2015 to the tune of a 14-8 record and 2.54 ERA. While his ERA currently checks in at 2.62, the overall body of work hasn’t been as impressive with him just 4-4 overall. Much of that has to do with a limited amount of support to work with as NY has plated an average of just 3.4 runs in his 14 overall starts. He owns a 51:8 K/BB ratio and 2.80 ERA lifetime against the Marlins.
LIVE BETTING
The under is 8-6 in deGrom’s starts to date, but the Mets have played to high scorers in five of his eight home starts. This might just be the outing he gets a boatload of run support to work with considering Nicolino enters this spot having given up at least 4 ER in each of his last three starts.
A first five innings parlay of the Mets and the over should do the trick.
QUICK PICK
We’ve seen a number of teams come up with huge series wins only to fall flat on their butts the next series. I don’t see that happening with NY. Terry Collins’ troops have already gone through some major losing streaks to date, and have some ground that needs to be gained if it’s to truly become a threat in the NL the rest of the way.
Miami’s been able to hang in thus far, but it’s simply overmatched on the starting bump in this one.
MLB Odds: Mets 8, Marlins 2
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