Catching Miami phenom Jose Fernandez at home is near death. On the road, however, it’s a different story. The Marlins’ flame throwing right-hander is just average during his career in road starts and the Rays have had his number during the Citrus Series.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Florida rivals met for the 100th time on Monday and the Marlins closed the gap in the all-time series with a 7-6 comeback win. Tampa Bay holds a slim 51-49 advantage over their neighbors from the south. Both teams entered the week in a bit of a downslide and given how close the series has been, you might as well flip a coin to determine a winner.
The Marlins had lost four of five heading into Monday’s opener and were on the verge of falling out of sight among the leaders in the NL East. Miami wasn’t supposed to be hanging around this long, so the first quarter of the season could be considered a success. They’ve been kept afloat by their play on the road, holding a 13-9 record in away games playing in the black 6.81 units on the moneyline in their 22 roadies.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Jose Fernandez (6-2, 3.02 ERA) earned a win on Saturday by limiting the Nationals to one run on four hits while striking out nine over six innings. He’s been electric in his past three starts posting a 0.90 ERA in 20 innings with 31 strikeouts. Fernandez has now allowed one or no runs in five of his nine starts and has fanned 78 over 53.2 innings.
The righty’s career splits are drastic. He’s 21-1 with a 1.64 ERA in 31 starts at Marlins Park but only 7-10 with a 3.65 ERA in 25 road starts. Fernandez has had his struggles against the Rays in the interleague matchup, going 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA in two starts.
Drew Smyly (2-5, 3.54 ERA) has been solid all season, but has little to show for his efforts. Saturday against the Tigers, he logged his fifth quality start but came away with his fifth loss by allowing three runs on seven hits in 6.1 innings. Two home runs accounted for all three Detroit runs against him and the long ball has been an issue in nearly half his outings. He’s surrendered two or more homers four times while allowing zero combined in the other five starts.
Smyly picked up a win giving up three hits and one run with eight strikeouts in his first career start against the Marlins last Sept. 30. He owns a career 1.29 ERA in two appearances against them.
LIVE BETTING
The Marlins have done a nice job protecting leads this season. The back end of the bullpen had potential disaster written all over it when they lost Carter Capps and lefty Mike Dunn before the season even started. But A.J. Ramos has converted all 14 of his save opportunities, David Phelps has transitioned into an eighth-inning force, and Kyle Barraclough has proved mostly reliable. Miami is 22-3 when either tied or leading after seven innings.
The early and middle relief, well that’s been a question mark all season. So far, the Marlins have used 12 relievers, with all of the turnover involving the early and middle men. They don’t have a situational lefty and all the pitchers used in those innings have been inconsistent.
QUICK PICK
The success of Fernandez at Marlins Park is well documented, but on the road he’s just another pitcher. And the Rays have been able to handle him in two career starts, pounding out 16 hits and batting .372 against him. But it’s hard to imagine a hurler as talented as Fernandez continuing to struggle against a Rays team that isn’t one of the best offensive clubs in the league.
Actually, Tampa Bay is in the lower third in team batting. Tampa ranks in the middle of the pack in runs scored thanks to a league-high 65 homers through Monday. Fernandez has allowed just three long balls in 53.2 innings, so don’t expect the Rays to get enough runs to dent him this time around.
MLB Odds: Miami 4, Tampa Bay 2
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