Milwaukee last found itself in the postseason back in 2011. Since then, the Brewers have been trending downward. This offseason, new General Manager David Stearns has shifted direction, looking to go the route the Astros and Cubs went a couple years ago. This could be a tough season if you’re a Brewers’ fan, but Milwaukee looks to be punting the present for dreams of the future.
PRESEASON ODDS
The Brewers are in a rebuilding mode, so the futures odds aren’t overly favorable for Milwaukee. They’re currently listed just ahead of Colorado, San Diego and Philadelphia in the World Series odds at +13300.
Oddsmakers have the Brew Crew pegged to finish last in the NL Central along with the Cincinnati Reds. Their odds to win the division currently sit at +6000, so it would be quite a shock if the Brewers were to compete with the Cubs, Cardinals and Pirates for division supremacy.
As for the win total, Milwaukee is slated at 70.5, and that number may actually be a bit high even though it’s been bet down since opening.
PITCHING BREAKDOWN
Kyle Lohse is no longer as the rotation continues to get younger. Now, Matt Garza is the senior member of the staff with guys in their 20s filling the other four spots.
As the most established arm, Garza should be this team’s ace. He’s had top-of-the-rotation type seasons before, but is coming of his worst season going 6-14 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.567 WHIP in 148 2/3 innings last season. He’s now 32 and given his injury history, there’s reason to question if he’ll be able to bounce back.
On pitcher who could rebound is Wily Peralta. The 26-year old pitched to a 3.53 ERA in 2014, but had a number of setbacks last year, ending with a 4.72 ERA and inflated WHIP. Along with Garza and Peralta will be Jimmy Nelson, Taylor Jungmann and newly acquired Chase Anderson.
Each member of the Brewers’ starting five has shown the ability to be—at worst—a solid major league starter, but there’s considerable questions about each and every one of them heading into the year.
As for the bullpen, they’ve lost K-Rod, but there is talent down there. Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith provide a nice one-two punch at the end of the game, one from the right side with the other from the left.
HITTING BREAKDOWN
Amongst players with at least a couple hundred at-bats, the Brewers had just five with an OPS+ north of 100. Amongst them, only Ryan Braun is still on this team.
Milwaukee dealt away Carlos Gomez and Gerardo Parra at the deadline and shipped Khris Davis to Oakland and Adam Lind to Seattle over the offseason. Also gone is Jean Segura who’s had a couple bad seasons, but does have a .752 OPS season not too far removed in the rearview mirror.
With so many players gone, that opens spots up for the youth to break in and make a splash. We’ll see prospects get a chance as the season progresses, but right now, most of the positions are filled by major league journeymen, has-beens and never-weres.
Jonathan Lucroy and Ryan Braun still offer a solid veteran presence in the middle of the order, provided Lucroy can bounce back.
The Brewers are likely to be a bit power starved. They did add all-or-nothing hitter Chris Carter to man first. He’ll provide some power—and plenty of swing and miss. The rest of the lineup is filled with players like Aaron Hill, Jonathan Villar and Kirk Nieuwenhuis.
Domingo Santana is likely the first youngster to get a chance to stick. He’s seen 58 games at the big league level and had a .702 OPS in those games.
KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH
Catcher Jonathan Lucroy is a key piece for the Brewers. He was injured much of last season and had a down year when he was on the field. Nevertheless, he’s just a year removed from a top-4 finish in the NL MVP voting.
The veteran catcher also provides a great target behind the plate. That’s a big plus for a team full of pitchers trying to find their way in the major leagues.
Look for a bounce back season for Lucroy. Look for his OPS+ to head back well north of 100, though maybe not to the 131 level he enjoyed in 2014. Perhaps the biggest question surrounding Lucroy is: will he be with the Brewers the entire season?
He was part of trade rumors all offseason and could be on the move before the year begins—or at the deadline.
FINAL THOUGHTS AND ANALYSIS
This is a bad baseball team in a stacked division. Look for the losses to pile up against the Cardinals, Cubs and Pirates. The losses could reach triple-digits in Milwaukee for just the second time in the franchise’s history.
There are a few pieces to watch and this team could become more exciting as prospects begin to work their way onto the roster, but for now don’t expect much from the Brewers.
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