The Brewers and Cubs open up a four game series on Tuesday with the first game of a day-night doubleheader on Tuesday afternoon. The Cubs have won five of the first eight head-to-head games in this season series.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Cardinals snapped the Cubs’ 11 game winning streak with an 8-4 victory on Saturday and carried that momentum into a tough fought game on Sunday.
Still, despite the streak ending, Chicago’s still rebounded nicely from their rough stretch in early July. Ever since the All-Star break, the Cubbies have been back to being the team of destiny, winning 20 of 28 and putting the division race completely out of reach.
The Brewers, meanwhile, sit in a tight duel for the division’s worst record. At 52-64, Milwaukee is four games up on the Reds.
The Brew Crew is a rebuilding team and has a collection of youngsters hungry enough to win any given day. Still, they’re just 4-7 in their last 11 games following a win over the Reds on Sunday.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
With two games in a single day, the Cubs will turn to a fill-in starter to avoid throwing off their rotation to accommodate the twin-bill.
As a result, Trevor Cahill is expected to come off the disabled list to make his first start of the season. Cahill is a former starter, but he’s been out of the pen all year for Chicago, pitching 41 innings over 33 games, going 1-3 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.390 WHIP. The ERA is nice, but the WHIP is a bit concerning. Cahill’s had issues with walks, walking 5.3 per nine innings.
In his current bullpen role, Cahill has been able to pitch around the walks, but they’ll stack up in a start if he continues to miss the zone that frequently.
While on rehab, Cahill has been starting for Triple-A Iowa and hasn’t done too well, going 0-3 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.881 WHIP. The last time the Cubs needed a spot start, they turned to Brian Matusz and that didn’t go well. This time around could be troublesome, too.
While Cahill gets a spot start for the Cubs, a former Cub will be on the mound for the Brewers: Matt Garza.
Injuries have once again limited Garza in 2016. That seems to be a constant story for the veteran right-hander.
Garza, however, has had more struggles than just staying on the field. In the 11 games he’s started this year, he’s 5-5 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.542 WHIP. He’s also already allowed seven home runs in 59 2/3 innings while walking 22.
In his last two starts, Garza has delivered back-to-back quality starts. While he’s a questions mark of sorts, he’s a bit more of a certainty than Cahill.
LIVE BETTING
Offensively, this is really no contest. The Cubs boast an all All-Star infield and a collection of talent hitters in the outfield. The Brewers are now sans Jonathan Lucroy and sans Aaron Hill. They’ve got Ryan Braun and Jonathan Villar with well above average numbers, but Villar is giving up time at short for top-prospect Orlando Arcia who is hitting just .184 in his first 11 games.
Braun, meanwhile, is still playing and has picked up his game since the All-Star break. In his last 22 games heading into Sunday, he’s got a 1.128 OPS.
Still, there’s only so much one player can due and the organization is set on seeing young players including Arcia, Keon Broxton and Ramon Flores, even if it means a number of bumps along the way.
The Cubs have a completely different motivation. Chicago is a team on a mission: World Series of bust.
Chicago’s got a lineup built to make it deep in October, too. While the Brew Crew tries to get a read on young players, the Cubs expect their youngsters to contribute and they’ve done just that.
Whether Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, or the everyday regulars like Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, everyone is producing. In fact, this team is so stacked that they were forced to send out Tommy La Stella to Triple-A despite a .846 OPS in 105 at bats as a role player.
QUICK PICK
The Cubs have the offense and the bullpen to beat the Cubs. Chicago added to their pen before the break while the Brewers traded away their best two arms and the Cubs still have the better bullpen ERA over the course of the full year. Just imagine how big the gap is there now.
Chicago should score plenty of runs against Garza, he’s not the same pitcher he was when he was in a Cubbies uniform. Though, this could be a high scoring affair given Cahill’s checkered past as a starter and mediocre results in the minors.
If the odds are favorable enough, this may be one of those games that makes sense to take the underdog for a massive payout, but short of that, take the Cubbies. Their offense is better, their bullpen is better and their defense is better too as the Brewers have committed the most errors in baseball.
MLB Odds: Cubs 7, Brewers 6
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