Pitching held back both the Twins and the Orioles last season, both sitting with nearly identical team ERAs. Neither team made drastic moves to upgrade their staff, instead they’re banking on internal improvements that include the arms on the mound in the series finale on Thursday.
You can bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Only the Rays and Athletics have longer odds of winning the AL Pennant than the Orioles at +2340. The Twins are just ahead at +2012.
Bettors, oddsmakers and pundits alike recognize the similarities between these two teams that’ve struggled to find quality starters and failed to get consistency out of their offenses thanks to low OBP numbers.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Ubaldo Jimenez gets the start for the Orioles. He signed a four year deal with the Birds prior to 2014 and pitched so poorly that he lost his starting job that season, but rebounded some last year. He was actually the team’s best starter outside of the now departed Wei-Yin Chen.
Jimenez ended the year 12-10 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.359 WHIP in 184 innings spanning 32 games.
Consistency hasn’t been a strength for the 32-year old right-hander. When he’s on his game he can be nearly unhittable, but he can be really bad as well. It’s all about command and those inconsistencies stem from some unconventional mechanics that can be hard for him to repeat.
Buck Showalter hid the righty for much of Spring Training in B-games and minor league action. He pitched just seven and a third innings in the Grapefruit League, giving up 10 runs.
Pitching this third game for Minnesota is Phil Hughes. He had a great first season out of New York, earning himself a nice contract, but didn’t live up to that in year two for the Twins.
Hughes was 11-9 in 2015 with a 4.40 ERA giving up a league high 29 homers. That could be troublesome against a powerful Orioles lineup in a bandbox of a stadium.
LIVE BETTING
While pitching and defense wins championships, the Orioles are hoping they can prove hitting can do the same.
Baltimore has a strong defense, outside of Mark Trumbo in right field, and its bullpen is one of the better ones in the league with Zach Britton and Darren O’Day, but the starting staff is just a collection of question marks including Jimenez.
One thing that’s not in question is the team’s power. The O’s were first in baseball in home runs for a few years back-to-back before falling to third last season. They’ve since added Trumbo and Pedro Alvarez giving the team plenty of thump and plenty of swing and miss, too.
Minnesota hit 61 fewer home runs last year, but scored just 17 less runs as it did a better job capitalizing on its opportunities.
Neither team, however, was ranked well in on-base percentage so free passes for the opposition could be key and that’s certainly a weakness for Jimenez.
QUICK PICK
The Orioles are a team with plenty of issues, but they’ve got a lineup with six hitters who have had at least one 30-home run season. On top of that Jonathan Schoop and Matt Wieters have plenty of pop for their positions. Really, left-field is the only spot that doesn’t have a thunderous bat as they’ve given rule-five pickup Joey Rickard the first crack at that job after beating out Hyun-Soo Kim in Spring Training.
Given Hughes propensity to allow the long ball, this could be a long day for the Twins, though depending on which Jimenez shows up to pitch it could just be one of those offense-led days.
The O’s lineup is one that can be pitched to given the number of strikeouts they’re likely to produce, but it’ll struggle more against the top-tier arms rather than Hughes.
Look for the power to play up at home for the Orioles. If Jimenez can last at least five to six innings without blowing up, the O’s bullpen should be able to do enough to allow the power to lead them to victory.
Orioles 7, Twins 6
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier.
BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! First pitch for the game between the Minnesota Twins and Baltimore Orioles is scheduled for Thursday, April 7, 2016, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. You can watch the contest live on the MLB Network.
