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The New York Yankees won four of the six head-to-head meetings with the Minnesota Twins this season, including capturing a three-game sweep in New York just two weeks ago. In that series, the Yankees won every type of game, inching out the Twins in a 2-1 game and outslugging them in a 11-3 victory. The Bronx Bombers certainly have history on their side, but can they continue their success against Minnesota?
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Yankees started the season hot, cooled in the middle and heated up down the stretch. While the Bombers did lose their season finale against the Blue Jays, they went 20-9 down the stretch since the start of September.
New York boasts a dynamic offense centered around Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez, but the lineup is deep one through nine with many bench options that only a team with the Yankees’ payroll can afford.
Despite the payroll gap, the offensive gap between the Yankees and the Twins really isn’t big. New York ranks second in baseball in runs scored and the Twins are seventh. Over the last month, the Yankees have had the best offense in the sport, but Minnesota’s only a few runs behind.
The bigger difference between these teams is on the mound, particularly in the bullpen.
Even though it’s been a struggle for Dellin Betances, the Yankees’ pen is still deep. A short outing to start the game is not a death sentence for New York, nor is an extra inning affair. From Aroldis Chapman to Chad Green to David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle and Adam Warren, Joe Girardi has options.
The Twins’ pen is a much bigger question mark. Brandon Kintzler was traded away midseason, leaving Paul Molitor scrambling to find a closer in the playoff race. There are a few options, but none as dynamic as the Yankee’s crew. If this game is tied late, New York as a major edge.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
In a one-and-done scenario, you are only as good as the starter taking the mound. While the Yankees’ rotation is far deeper than the Twins’ in a one game series, these two match up well.
For the Yankees, they’ll be given the ball to youngster Luis Severino. The right-hander has had a huge season and will get some Cy Young Award votes after going 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in his 193.1 innings of work. He’s been a strikeout machine while also doing a good job avoiding the free passes.
The All-Star got even better in the second half. Since the break, he’s 9-2 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.946 WHIP. He’s 3-0 with a 2.10 ERA in his last five starts. He seems to be getting stronger and stronger. While it’s mostly good news for the Yankees and Severino, he didn’t look great in his lone start against Minnesota in 2017, allowing three runs in three innings.
Another downside for the Yankees is the fact they’ll have to face Ervin Santana. The Twins don’t have a rotation to matchup with the Yankees in a five or seven game series, but in a single game, they can always throw Santana who had a dominating season.
The veteran right-hander is 16-8 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.126 WHIP. He’s the league leader in complete games and shutouts. With the bullpen advantage in the Yankees’ favor, they’ll be hoping and praying for a deep outing by their ace.
Santana was okay when he faced the Yankees in September. He allowed only two runs, but gave up seven hits and lasted only 5.2 innings. That was, however, one of four straight games where he’s allowed three or fewer runs.
LIVE BETTING
New York fell off the table in the middle of the year, but have been strong in the last month. A big part of that recurrence is the return of the dominating Aaron Judge.
The AL MVP hopeful set the Major League record in rookie home runs with 50. Over his last 27 games, he’s collected 15 of those bombs while hitting .311 with a 1.352 OPS. He’s not alone in hitting well, either.
After struggling to get anything out of first base all year, Greg Bird is back and while his average is down, he’s at least giving the team some pop. Sanchez, Todd Frazier and Didi Gregorius make a formidable lineup.
On the other side, the Twins just got Miguel Sano back in the fold. When healthy, Sano is the Twins’ best hitter. Even after missing so much time, he’s second on the team in homers and first in OPS+.
Will Sano be in the lineup on Tuesday? If he is, will he be ready? Can be play the Kyle Schwarber role for the Twins and come off the DL and look like he missed no time at all?
With or without Sano, the Twins offense is strong. Byron Buxton is hot, Brian Dozier’s power is on display and Joe Maurer’s average is back up over .300 where it belongs.
QUICK PICK
Santana is more experienced than Severino, but Severino’s had the better season and is the better pitcher, when he’s on his game.
I look for a close game until the sixth or seventh when the bullpens really differentiate these two teams. The Twins have outperformed expectations on every level and should be proud of their season, but their bench and bullpen just don’t stack up with the New York Yankees.
If Giardi stays away from Betances and uses his other options in a tight spot, the Yankees should pull through with the win. The Yankees should tack on a few runs against the Minnesota bullpen to create a little separation and cruise to victory.
MLB Odds: Yankees 6, Twins 3
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