The Minnesota Twins have been absolutely atrocious this year, particularly on the road. They head into the holiday weekend at 4-19 away from Target Field, but they'll hope to grab a rare road victory on Memorial Day afternoon against the Oakland Athletics.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
At 12-34, Minnesota surely isn't making friends with bettors at this point. The damage at this point is 20.85 units, easily the worst mark in the league. The away record of 4-19 is as bad as it gets in baseball for sure, and that makes this a really tough spot to bet on the Twins, even if they are playing against a team which is just 8-15 at home and eight-games under .500 overall.
Let's not forget though, that Oakland hasn't been good by any stretch of the imagination either. The A's are down 7.46 units in 2016 as well.
PITCHING MATCHUP
At some point, young Kendall Graveman needs to catch a break. He's got all the potential in the world, and when his splitter is working, he's truly filthy. That said, it's almost like he should be a reliever at this point in his career, because that third time around the batting lineup, he's been getting killed this year.
The overall stats say 1-6 with a 5.36 ERA, and that's nothing to be proud of. Those stats are even worse since April 25. In that run, Graveman is 0-5 (and the team is 0-6 in that span) with a 7.36 ERA.
Ervin Santana is at the tail end of his career, but he's still pitching at a high enough level to get the job done on a team which really isn't going anywhere. He's only made eight starts this season, but his 1-3 record isn't really indicative of how he's pitched. If you took away his last start against KC in which he allowed six runs in 3.2 innings, his ERA would be just a tick above 3.50.
LIVE BETTING
The argument could be made that live bettors should be looking forward to playing the over every step of the way in this one. Though Santana can really get going and put zeroes on the board in a hurry, Graveman isn't going to be effective at the tail end of this start in all likelihood.
Furthermore, these bullpens just aren't good. Ryan Madson has done the job as the most-of-the-time closer for the A's, but there isn't a true shutdown man in Oakland's relief core.
Minnesota though, is in far worse shape when it comes to closing. Kevin Jensen isn't a legitimate closer at this level, and he has almost as many blown saves (3) as he has converted saves (4). This bullpen has an ERA well beyond 4.00 this year, and that's why this team is the worst in baseball.
QUICK PICK
The only play we're supremely confident in here is the over. Oakland's bats are probably just a tick worse than those of the Twins at this point, and that's saying something. But considering the fact that Mark Canha and Josh Reddick are both out of the fold, there's just not a lot of consistency here.
All things considered, we'll take our shot with the Twins in this one, but even in one of the worst hitters' parks in the game, the over is still our favored side of the two. There's a reason why these two teams are both comfortably posting good seasons for over bettors.
MLB Odds: Twins 7, Athletics 5
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