It’s the first series of the season between the two teams expected to be battling it out all summer long for the NL East crown. The Washington Nationals are the defending champs in that regard, but the New York Mets—despite injuries—have a strong starting rotation and plenty of power to challenge the Nats. New York will get the home field advantage in this first head-to-head series, but Washington is playing better baseball right now as the Mets have dropped four straight heading into the middle of the week.
This series will be contested from Friday, April 21, 2017 through Sunday, April 23, 2017 at Citi Field in New York. Friday's clash is being shown live out-of-market on MLB Network while Saturday’s game will be seen on Fox Sports 1. These two teams also get the Sunday Night primetime game on ESPN.
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Pitching Matchups
The Nationals haven’t announced the pitching matchup for this series, but figure to go with Tanner Roark, Gio Gonzalez and Max Scherzer if they stay on schedule. Meanwhile, the Mets are set to counter with Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler.
As for Friday’s matchup, deGrom comes into action with a 1.89 ERA through his first three games though he’s yet to factor into a decision. He’s coming off a career high 13 strikeouts in a seven inning outing against Miami and has 22 Ks in 19 innings, lasting at least six innings in each start.
The 28-year old is now a grizzled veteran and has been the model of consistency over his young career, pitching to a 2.71 ERA and 1.086 WHIP. In seven starts against Washington he’s got a 3.12 ERA while in 39 career games at Citi Field, he’s 16-10 with a 1.90 ERA.
Flipping over to Roark, he’s one of the more underrated arms in the game. He’s been solid in his first three outings. He’s allowed nine runs in 18 innings, but only seven of them have been earned and he’s limited batters to just 14 hits and two walks.
Roark’s strikeout numbers have been down so that’s at least a bit concerning as he struck out just three in seven innings against Philadelphia last time out, but his control has been there and he’s been inducing groundballs.
Saturday’s starter, Gonzalez, has pitched better than Roark in the early going. The lefty has allowed just three earned runs in 20.1 innings. Lucas Duda and Jay Bruce have both been producing early, but could have struggles against the southpaw. Don’t look for a high scoring affair—at least not until the bullpen is involved—so it’ll be up to Harvey to keep New York close.
Harvey’s shown much more velocity than he did in Spring Training and seems to be fully healthy. That’s always been the key when healthy Harvey’s been one of the best pitchers in the game, but the 28-year old was off all of last year. So far this year, he’s 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA. His biggest issue has been the long ball. He’s already allowed three. That said, he did keep Miami in the park in his last start.
Sunday’s starter is the least certain one for the Mets as Wheeler has shown the stuff that made him a great prospect and one of the best young starters in the game before his injury, but his command is off and he’s throwing way too many pitches, preventing him from getting deep in the game and giving the opposition more time to see and adjust to what he’s throwing.
You have to expect some rust to be there after missing two whole seasons, but the results have been getting better with each start. After giving up five in his first start, he limited it to three in his second start and then held the Phillies to a single run in his last outing, but it still took him 99 pitches to get through five innings. He did strike out seven, but a lot of deep counts did him in.
While Wheeler continues to find his way, he won’t be given much margin for error to work with on Sunday. Scherzer, despite an adjusted grip due to a finger injury, looks very much like the starter that won the Cy Young Award last year.
Scherzer is already leading the league in strikeouts with 24 and has allowed just 10 hits—none for homers in 19.2 innings. He has allowed seven walks which is quite elevated for him.
Offensive Comparison
Anthony Rendon has been ice cold and with both Trea Turner and Stephen Drew on the DL, the shortstop position hasn’t provided much on offense. Otherwise, this whole lineup is hitting.
Turner is due back in this series and could help spark a team already ranked first in all of baseball with a .810 team OPS. Eaton has been a great pickup so far, getting on base at a .421 clip and can set the table alongside Turner for the thumpers in the middle.
Bryce Harper looks to have put his struggles from last year in the rearview mirror. He looks more like the version of himself that ran away with the 2015 NL MVP award which is downright scary. He’s already slammed four homers and has 13 RBIs to go along with a .475 OBP and 1.162 OPS. Daniel Murphy’s dominating bat is back and so is Ryan Zimmerman’s. That may not last, but while it does you can bet the Nationals will ride it.
Based on OPS, the Mets have been an average offense, but based on home runs, they’re second in the sport to only the Eric Thames led Brewers.
New York is one of those teams that depends heavily on the long ball. It’s a strategy that usually works out alright in the regular season, but can cause issues in the playoffs due to the top notch pitching.
Washington will send three quality starters against the Mets this series so they’ll either need to find a way to manufacture runs or take advantage of a struggling bullpen.
Bullpen Breakdown
Jeurys Familia’s 15-game suspension is nearly over and he’s eligible back in the Mets’ bullpen for this series.
The All-Star closer won’t be put back into the ninth inning immediately. Instead, he’ll be eased back into the role so it’s likely Addison Reed retains the closer role for this series, but even so Familia serves to deepen a pen that’s, at times, looked a bit shallow.
With Familia and Reed, the Mets have at least two strong answers though there could be some rust for Familia even after his minor league brush ups. While this bullpen isn’t perfect, there are some good arms and there’s more certainty here than there is in Washington where Blake Treinen has floundered in the closer role.
He was bailed out on Tuesday night by Shawn Kelley who could be ticketed to take over in the ninth despite a slew of early runs allowed himself. The only other option is Koda Glover who despite a good Spring is still young and inexperienced not only in the ninth, but in the Major Leagues in general. In general, nobody has inspired a particularly high level of confidence in the National’s pen.
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