The Washington Nationals resume the season on Friday night with the first of four against the Cincinnati Reds. The Nationals took two out of three from the Reds earlier this season, outscoring the NL Central’s cellar dwellers by 12-runs in the series. Cincinnati has proven to be a much more difficult team at home, sitting three-games over-.500.
This series will be contested from Friday, July 14, 2017 through Monday, July 17, 2017 at the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. Monday's clash is being shown live on MLB Network.
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Pitching Matchups
The Reds have a 5.91 rotation ERA this year indicating that regardless of the pitcher selected, the Nationals likely have the advantage on the mound in this series. Fortunately for the Reds, their rotation has been reshuffled a few times this year. Unfortunately, it still features generally mediocre arms.
Tim Adleman starts the first game off the break. He’s been close enough to mediocre to pass for the team’s No. 2 starter. He’s 5-6 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.333 WHIP. Those numbers are serviceable for a back-end starter, but the Reds have only won one of his last six starts. He’s got a 5.23 ERA in that time.
Adleman has been prone to the long ball, which isn’t a surprise in Cincinnati, but Washington is a team with plenty of power and could really take advantage of his weaknesses.
The second game of the series could be the toughest matchup for the Nationals’ hitters. Luis Castillo gets the start in that game. He’s a rookie with just four big league starts. He’s 1-1 with a 3.13 ERA in those starts, totaling 23 innings and striking out 30.
Castillo has excellent stuff, touching 100 mph on the radar gun while complementing the heat with a tricky change up. His breaking ball still needs work so a hanging slider or two could be for the taking for the stacked Nationals’ lineup.
After Castillo, the Reds go back to veterans to close out the four-game series, sending Homer Bailey to the mound on Sunday before giving the ball to Scott Feldman to close the series on Monday.
Bailey was the pitcher the Reds’ front office decided to invest in, not Johnny Cueto, but Bailey. How did he repay their loyalty? Miss most of two season. He’s back on the mound now, but has been very rusty in four starts with 16 runs allowed in 17.1 innings and nine walks.
The veteran’s last two starts have been better, combining to allow two runs in 12.2 innings though he did still walk four Diamondbacks in his last outing. Still, he minimized the damaged and got the win. He’s now won back-to-back games.
Feldman, meanwhile, is 7-6 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.266 WHIP. He’s basically your average, middle-of-the-road starting pitcher. He’s nothing to get too excited about, but in a rotation like the Reds, he’s the surest thing.
Speaking of sure things, the Nationals have a few of those. Washington hasn’t announced its rotation, but there’s no question which is stronger.
The Nationals have two All-Star starters in Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg while Gio Gonzalez could’ve easily been added, too.
Scherzer started the game for the NL thanks to a 10-5 record, 2.10 ERA, 0.779 WHIP and a league leading 173 strikeouts. The two-time Cy Young Award winner is a true ace and will get one of the starts in this series, giving Washington a clear advantage regardless of the matchup.
As for Gonzalez, he was certainly an All-Star snub. He’s 7-4 with a 2.86 ERA and has a rWAR of 3.7. He is walking 3.9 per nine innings which is high and that’s led to a 4.19 FIP so there’s reason to believe he will regress. Of course, that regression has already started if you look solely at wins and losses. He’s lost his last three starts and the Nats are only 9-9 with him on the hill. Still, he has eight straight quality starts to his name.
Moving on, Strasburg got an All-Star bid over Gio with a higher ERA of 3.43, but his FIP is much better at 3.13. Gonzalez has pitched in bad luck with run support and Strasburg has been a bit unlucky in terms of his ERA compared to his homers, walks and strikeouts.
The 28-year old right-hander is 9-3 and has 128 strikeouts in 112.2 innings as one of several workhorses in this rotation.
Another Nationals’ workhorse is Tanner Roark. He’s pitched 100.2 innings despite a down year. An often-underrated pitcher in his career, Roark is 6-6 with a 5.27 ERA while No.5 starter Joe Ross is 5-3 with a 5.01. Cincy’s best chance for a win comes in whichever games one of the top three does not start.
Betting Trends
Somehow or another, the Nationals are running away with the NL East despite having the worst bullpen in baseball.
Some of that is due to a terrible division, but Washington has also been able to slug their way to greatness. The team has three of the NL’s All-Star starters with Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy. Anthony Rendon has also been a beast. All four stars are all sporting an OPS+ of at least 146, providing both power and average.
Back to the pen, the Nat’s bullpen ERA is a staggering 5.20, meaning the offense needs to keep adding on and the rotation needs to go as deep as possible.
Until Washington addresses the issue by trade, it’s always going to a concern. Matt Albers and, to a lesser extent, Enny Romero have been the only semi reliable arms.
For the Reds, the offense is dynamic, too. Joey Votto has been every bit as good as Zimmerman. Meanwhile, Zack Cozart was the starting shortstop for the NL. Adam Duvall and Scott Schebler each have 20 bombs. Their foursome isn’t as fearsome as Washington, but it can compete.
The bullpen beats out Washington’s pen easily. They’re No. 10 in the sport with a 3.97 ERA. Their only problem has been getting to that strong pen. They’ve already thrown 344.1 innings out of the pen, the most in the sport.
Names to Remember
Scooter Gennett has just 209 at bats, but he’s already delivered a four-home run game, 47 RBI and 41 runs scored.
He’s batting .311 with a .363 OBP and .603 slugging percentage. That’s a .966 OPS.
Gennett was essentially let go by the Brewers before the season and the Reds snapped him up. He was a league average hitter over his career, which isn’t bad for a middle infielder, but was coming off a .728 OPS. He’s been much better than that this year, earning himself an expanded role of late.
Gennett’s primary position is second base, but he’s gotten some time in the outfield, too. The most obvious players for him to replace in the lineup are Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza based on their offensive struggles. Even if his bat isn’t available off the bench in the middle of the game, he makes an impact because Peraza or Hamilton’s legs will be available for a key stolen base late.
On the other side of the field, the key bench player for the Nationals has been Adam Lind. The first baseman was supposed to platoon some with Zimmerman, but the first baseman has been nails this year. Nevertheless, Lind has gotten some at bats and has delivered when given a chance. He’s got just 120 at bats, but has six homers and 28 RBIs to go along with a .300 average.
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